60KWH roll-in - B5 theory: they won't do it til after Jan1

[Alpha]

The only option that Tesla says they can easily add later is the child seats but it will cost you more to have it later than getting it done at the factory.

In terms of battery and supercharging upgrades after the fact, it might be technically possible but Tesla has not committed to doing that. I'd get whatever you think you'll want now and in the future as long as you own the car and not count on Tesla making them available. They say Supercharging requires additional hardware so if any of those two happen, the battery swap would be more likely but your performance may not be upgraded as well (going from a 40kWh car and upgrading to the 85 kWh pack may not drop your 0-60 time). It could, I'm just not sure if we know that yet. Good luck.

Thanks very much for your answer. That is helpful.

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update.. according to what was said on this video:

http://www.tested.com/news/feature/451871-tested-test-drives-tesla-model-s-electric-car/

You won't be able to add the rear facing child seats later, it has to be done at the factory when the car is built...
Don't know if that's true or not, but he sounded pretty confident when he said that...

 

[Vexar]

The battery packs are now being assembled at the factory itself in a "clean room" setting; it's mentioned somewhere in the National Geographic Tesla factory video.

Thanks for that. As of July, they were still at the Palo Alto office according to my tour plan.

 

[dsmith2189]

update.. according to what was said on this video:
You won't be able to add the rear facing child seats later, it has to be done at the factory when the car is built...
Don't know if that's true or not, but he sounded pretty confident when he said that...

you may want to take into consideration that many vehicles that ordered the child seats did not receive them when the car was shipped and will be installed at a later date.

 

[Robert.Boston]

If a car was prepped for having the third row, they're easy to add. If your car wasn't prepped, though, it appears to lack some required latch points.

 

[Alpha]

Just spoke to Tesla directly. They said that the child seat definately *can* be added on later, but it would cost more than if you order it up front because there is some additional wiring involved. That's good to know...

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They also said as far as upgrading to a bigger battery - it might be possible later but no guarantees,
and as far as the super charger goes, you won't be able to because the wiring involved is pretty intense.

 

[Kipernicus]

While it's good for Tesla to get as many cars out in Dec as possible, I'm concerned that with this latest "Do you want your car in December?" email that the production line will be so flooded with 85's that they won't get to us 60's until late Jan or even Feb because they will need to finish off what they started in Dec. Do you think so?

 

[SteveH]

I still have faith. Besides, they won't want the press associated with missing this already revised deadline. I'm confident that at least one 60 rolls of the line in Jan and probably several. (Hopefully mine).

 

[Babylonfive]

While it's good for Tesla to get as many cars out in Dec as possible, I'm concerned that with this latest "Do you want your car in December?" email that the production line will be so flooded with 85's that they won't get to us 60's until late Jan or even Feb because they will need to finish off what they started in Dec. Do you think so?

Kipper, I don't see the issue. The email simply asks if folks can wait, not if they want to pull in.

The little that I think I see of the Tesla 'character' is that they want to be fair where they can (even if some on the forum have argued otherwise), and thus they will try to get the 60s going as quickly as possible after January, irrespective of the 85kWH deliveries. In fact, asking for folks to volunteer to delay should make the 60 situation better, not worse.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Babylon, I'm with Kip on this one. A lot more are going to say Yes to that December delivery question than those who may say no. And, surely, the 1,600 or so cars that Tesla can build the rest of this month will not be enough to service those many orders.

There will indeed be a lot of spillover into January and even February. Folks who said Yes now but who don't make it eventually this year will surely expect their cars in January/February now rather than March/April/whenever that they had been prepared for earlier based on their high sequence numbers.

There's a good chance that many of us low Ps with 60 configs will see February and March now. Tesla can still start producing some 60s in January but, not get too deep. Color me bummed.

 

[shokunin]

I think the email is more like when an airline overbooks and asks for volunteers to bump to the next flight. They gather an interest list and at some point they call the few that volunteered to bump and tell the rest, go ahead and board as usual.

At this point I think Tesla knows what it can produce and deliver for the rest of the year and going into early 2013. While many of us responded with a Heck yeah! I want it ASAP, once they hit the limit they'll communicate to the rest of respondants to expect delivery in 2013.

 

[dsmith2189]

Babylon, I'm with Kip on this one. A lot more are going to say Yes to that December delivery question than those who may say no. And, surely, the 1,600 or so cars that Tesla can build the rest of this month will not be enough to service those many orders.

There will indeed be a lot of spillover into January and even February. Folks who said Yes now but who don't make it eventually this year will surely expect their cars in January/February now rather than March/April/whenever that they had been prepared for earlier based on their high sequence numbers.

There's a good chance that many of us low Ps with 60 configs will see February and March now. Tesla can still start producing some 60s in January but, not get too deep. Color me bummed.

It looks like they are trying to fill the production queue with those 85kWh reservations who don't want to or can't wait until Jan for whatever reason. that way they can efficiently service them and then mix (in relative reservation order) the ones who are willing to wait, in with the 60kWhs that start in January (pick a number between 1 and 31). When you think about it that way they can satisfy as many people (customers) as possible and eleviate some stress all arround.

 

[Tempus]

It looks like they are trying to fill the production queue with those 85kWh reservations who don't want to or can't wait until Jan for whatever reason. that way they can efficiently service them and then mix (in relative reservation order) the ones who are willing to wait, in with the 60kWhs that start in January (pick a number between 1 and 31). When you think about it that way they can satisfy as many people (customers) as possible and eleviate some stress all arround.

Yeah.... I REALLY hope they turn 60 production on full blast come the first week in january. In the meantime im trying hard not to be jealous of all the 4000+ folks being notified this week.

 

[Babylonfive]

Babylon, I'm with Kip on this one. A lot more are going to say Yes to that December delivery question than those who may say no. And, surely, the 1,600 or so cars that Tesla can build the rest of this month will not be enough to service those many orders.

There will indeed be a lot of spillover into January and even February. Folks who said Yes now but who don't make it eventually this year will surely expect their cars in January/February now rather than March/April/whenever that they had been prepared for earlier based on their high sequence numbers.

There's a good chance that many of us low Ps with 60 configs will see February and March now. Tesla can still start producing some 60s in January but, not get too deep. Color me bummed.

No, GG. It's only an opportunity to push out those who might fall into the earlier period, and NOT to pull anyone in. Therefore, as soon as 60 kicks in (January), they would either be caught up to reservation parity (unlikely) or at least be placed in parallel with the 85s. This won't push anyone any further back than we already would have been without the latest 'NOW' email.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

No, GG. It's only an opportunity to push out those who might fall into the earlier period, and NOT to pull anyone in. Therefore, as soon as 60 kicks in (January), they would either be caught up to reservation parity (unlikely) or at least be placed in parallel with the 85s. This won't push anyone any further back than we already would have been without the latest 'NOW' email.

Now, there's an optimist! I'll drink to that!

 

[Babylonfive]

Now, there's an optimist! I'll drink to that!

Also, I'm wondering if something's gone a bit wrong in their decision to send out so many of the emails, but only with respect to setting proper expectations in the community. Perhaps they should have stopped before 10k!

 

[spleen]

No, GG. It's only an opportunity to push out those who might fall into the earlier period, and NOT to pull anyone in. Therefore, as soon as 60 kicks in (January), they would either be caught up to reservation parity (unlikely) or at least be placed in parallel with the 85s. This won't push anyone any further back than we already would have been without the latest 'NOW' email.

Yeah, this is how I interpreted the email as well - it shouldn't cause any 60s to get pushed back if Tesla is producing cars in the way that I'm understanding it.

 

[Yogionthebeach]

Any guesses on the split between 85 kwh and 60 kwh starting Jan? If they do want to achieve parity, I would think 30/70 for may be 8 weeks. This will provide about 2000 cars with 60 kwh - not enough for parity but any more skewed ratio may hurt revenue....

 

[Babylonfive]

Any guesses on the split between 85 kwh and 60 kwh starting Jan? If they do want to achieve parity, I would think 30/70 for may be 8 weeks. This will provide about 2000 cars with 60 kwh - not enough for parity but any more skewed ratio may hurt revenue....

Yea, that was the point of my earlier questions, and I agree that some hybrid solution as you mention is the way they will go. Sad, but then means I won't have my lil Silver Stallion until Feb. at least (sigh)

 

[Robert.Boston]

Any guesses on the split between 85 kwh and 60 kwh starting Jan? If they do want to achieve parity, I would think 30/70 for may be 8 weeks. This will provide about 2000 cars with 60 kwh - not enough for parity but any more skewed ratio may hurt revenue....

My guess is that they would optimally run nothing but 60kWh batteries for a week. Doing so would let them catch up in the queue order and eliminate any risk of putting the wrong battery in a car. We've got no insight into the battery fabrication process, though, so I have no basis for knowing whether that step can simply shift from the 85kWh batteries to the 60kWh batteries without productivity impacts.

 

[Yogionthebeach]

My guess is that they would optimally run nothing but 60kWh batteries for a week. Doing so would let them catch up in the queue order and eliminate any risk of putting the wrong battery in a car. We've got no insight into the battery fabrication process, though, so I have no basis for knowing whether that step can simply shift from the 85kWh batteries to the 60kWh batteries without productivity impacts.

I'm assuming plug-n-play with any battery pack but that may be too simplistic. Good point about mixups and hence the need to stick to one battery type each week. If so, they may have to go 60 for 3 wks and just one wk of 85 in the next two months to catch up. Of course, we do not know what percent of reservations up to say 5000 are 60 kwh. And some fraction of them waiting for red (yours truly being one of them!).