Wacky conspiracy theory: freezing inventory cars is not incompatible with a minor refresh of the car, to be unveiled at the semi. event on the 16th. To preserve goodwill, Tesla might not allow customers to order a pre-refresh inventory car only to find that post-refresh cars are available "soon." Neither would they want a customer to be able to order an post-refresh inventory car in California, which should be immediately available, only to be told they can't take delivery until after the 16th.
Custom builds would not be affected--if they switched over to post-refresh early in the quarter, all U.S. deliveries of custom cars this quarter will be post-refresh, and won't arrive until after the November 16th announcement. This would also explain why slower than usual transport is being used (train).
I had this concern and initially tried to delay my purchase until the semi event and still make sure I got the car before year end... but...
1. Reasons above... got car, discount, $1k discount, unlimited SC, etc (in theory before it expired)
2. MS sales are doing great - no reason not to "milk the cash cow". If sales actually fell, I would have been nervous, but no reason to make changes to fluff the sales.
3. They have reduced resources away from MS to focus on M3 ,and thus production by 10% - again, you don't bother refreshing if you are so challenged you pull resources.
4. Given #2 and #3 - AND the battery tech for M3 is the future - why refresh the car when a major change has to come within about 18months of the M3 being a viable option. The M3 has newer tech and battery. The MS will have to adopt it once they have the scale to share the batteries and tech - but for now, they have to deliver the M3. Deliver and amazing MS V2 after M3 is rolling strong.
So with all that, I'm back to - focus on AP/softrware with the S team and let everyone else build the M3. AP benefits both platforms and if you dont deliver AP you have an angry mob of disillusioned MS buyers who wont come back for MS2.0. So no change.
Of course... I could be wrong, what do I know.