MiamiNole
Member
How long before release were the Model S and Model X available for reservation? Also, I can't see the reservation price being that high for a $35K-$50K car. I'd say $2500 max.
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35K-50K price point? Leasing or Buying? And 1st day announcement # orders discussion
- Thread starter FrankOT564
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- Model 3
How long before release were the Model S and Model X available for reservation? Also, I can't see the reservation price being that high for a $35K-$50K car. I'd say $2500 max.
ProphetM
Member
That's exactly what I was thinking. Half the price of the MS, half the deposit? Idk. We'll find out in a matter of months. My goal is a day one reservation. But there's SO much uncertainty about the car that people looking for a car at this price point need very specific answers to. Aparment charging solutions? Supercharge network? Design? All of the above would need to be settled emotionally immediately, especially if reservations and reveal happen simultaneously. I've made the mental commitment...I'm getting the car...but it could prove to be relatively inconvenient in a handful of ways.
So I got a chance to ask EM about doing a one day in person reservation before it was opened up online. He did not say No to that idea. Great FREE advertising and rewards the Tesla fans out there. Would you camp out for a few days to be one of the first owners?
I am planning on $52,500 - $62,500 when I am done picking options.
I am planning on $52,500 - $62,500 when I am done picking options.
McHoffa
CyberOwners
I agree... if I can get a fully loaded ludicrous (or at least insane) Model 3 for around $60, that would be great, and I plan on putting down a deposit the minute I can, even if it means staying up until 3am. Just hoping they have the high end model available from day one, and hope it's not delayed by a couple years.
I think a lot of the posts I've read are overly optimistic about the cost of the M3. The base price may very well be $35k but options will add up quickly and option cost will be fairly consistent with the MS. That said, there will probably be less customization and more option packages to streamline the manufacturing process. I'm expecting that over time there will be more features included in the option packages with no price increase and option packages will be consolidated. This will be a subtle way of dropping the price people pay after the tax credit expires (so demand doesn't drop off a cliff) without upsetting those who ordered early on and paid more. Also, keep in mind the base model likely won't even be available for at least a year after the initial launch (supposedly in 2017), and probably not until after the tax credit has expired. Signature orders by early reservation holders will still cost 70k+, even into the $80s fully loaded, before tax credit.
That said, here's my guess at to what an M3 option list might look like at launch (if such a detailed option list actually existed):
Base 35k
50 kwh battery inc. (200 mile range)
$10k - 65 kwh (250 mile range)
$10 - 80 kwh (290 mile range)
$2k - Supercharging (inc. with batteries larger than 50 kwh)
$5k - AWD
$2.5k - AutoPilot
$3k - Tech Package
$2.5k - Air suspension
$2.5k - Upgraded Sound System
$1k - Cold weather pkg
$1k - Paint (anything other than black or white)
$1.5k - Sun roof
$2.5k - upgraded Wheels
$2k - leather interior
$2.5k - upgraded leather
$1k - Upgraded interior pkg
For me, I think I'd at least want to have the 65kwh battery ($10k), Autopilot ($2.5k), leather ($2k), and the tech package ($3k) for a total just over $52.5k. Getting a M3 80P (P not available with 65) will be $70k+, not in the 60s.
That said, here's my guess at to what an M3 option list might look like at launch (if such a detailed option list actually existed):
Base 35k
50 kwh battery inc. (200 mile range)
$10k - 65 kwh (250 mile range)
$10 - 80 kwh (290 mile range)
$2k - Supercharging (inc. with batteries larger than 50 kwh)
$5k - AWD
$2.5k - AutoPilot
$3k - Tech Package
$2.5k - Air suspension
$2.5k - Upgraded Sound System
$1k - Cold weather pkg
$1k - Paint (anything other than black or white)
$1.5k - Sun roof
$2.5k - upgraded Wheels
$2k - leather interior
$2.5k - upgraded leather
$1k - Upgraded interior pkg
For me, I think I'd at least want to have the 65kwh battery ($10k), Autopilot ($2.5k), leather ($2k), and the tech package ($3k) for a total just over $52.5k. Getting a M3 80P (P not available with 65) will be $70k+, not in the 60s.
Even though the S/X was released with high-end signature models first, I think Tesla would be wrong to only ship the high-end signature model 3s in "Late 2017". This completely goes against their mantra. Remember, the Roadster, S and X were made solely to FUND the 3 - getting high value cars out first meant more than shipping out numbers. Remember what EM said about preferring quality (more expensive) cars to hitting deadlines. By the time the 3 is released, the GF1 will have been manufactured, the Fremont plant will have been upgraded/retooled and the R&D and capital costs will have dropped off significantly. There is no reason to only ship the $60k+ models first. By this point investors will want to see NUMBERS of deliveries. Those that can afford a $60k+ Signature 3 do NOT need the tax credit (though it helps). Those that have been waiting years (those who can only ogle the S/X, and have been for over 3 years now, and will be 6-7 years by the time the first $35k car actually hits the road) for a $35,000 electric car NEED the tax credit, not those that can already afford an S/X.
With that said, that's my guess, and my wish, as I will also be one those people hitting F5 on a particular website 10 times per minute on March 31st, 2016.
With that said, that's my guess, and my wish, as I will also be one those people hitting F5 on a particular website 10 times per minute on March 31st, 2016.
ProphetM
Member
Once Tesla drops down from the rarified air that they currently occupy, they will have to compete with other carmakers to a much greater degree. If they are truly aiming at the BMW 3 Series then they can't price it up near the base Model S. As far as I can tell a BMW 3 Series sedan starts at about $33k and maxes out at about $62k. That's about the same range I would expect to see for the Model 3. It has to be, at minimum, a better car for the same price, or they won't get anyone but EV enthusiasts buying them.
Candleflame
Active Member
The S60 had 208 miles. With a smaller/lighter car, 50kWh for 200 miles seems possible.
What isn't possible is for Tesla to produce a car that only gets 200 EPA miles though. It won't pass EM's standards. Minimum EPA miles will probably have to be 225. For that, I'm thinking around 60kWh will be the smallest pack size available.
By then, the Model S/X will have minimum 80kWh packs.
What isn't possible is for Tesla to produce a car that only gets 200 EPA miles though. It won't pass EM's standards. Minimum EPA miles will probably have to be 225. For that, I'm thinking around 60kWh will be the smallest pack size available.
By then, the Model S/X will have minimum 80kWh packs.
MassModel3
Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Tesla better be having the same dream if they hope to sell the base model for $35K. It's also quite realistic with an aerodynamic design, and considering they managed to get a cd of .24 from the Model X SUV they should be able to do better with the 3, which will also have a smaller frontal area, for what should be a very low cdA. Not to mention that the Roadster with a worse cd achieved over 240 miles from a 53kWh pack.
Actually the BMW 3 series ranges from $35k (including destination/handling) to $65k. The 4 series gran coupe (more similar to Model 3 because it's a 3 series with hatchback) goes up to $67k. The BMW M3 which would be comparable to the Model 3 P80+ type car, goes up to $76k. So to properly compete with BMW across all the different Model 3 options, pricing would need to be $35k - $76k after tax rebate. That obviously doesn't include gas savings. Based on those numbers I think it's realistic for Model 3 to be very competitive with BMW 3 series.
For what its worth the new Leaf has a 30kWh option and is rated at 107 miles. That at least gives us a hint that 60kWh is in the ballpark for the smallest possible pack to get 200 miles out of
2016 Nissan Leaf Offers 107-Mile Range With 30-kWh Battery; Leaf S Unchanged
2016 Nissan Leaf Offers 107-Mile Range With 30-kWh Battery; Leaf S Unchanged
ProphetM
Member
I compared sedan to sedan as that's what customers will most likely be comparing. Even if it has a hatch, they won't be viewing the Model 3 as a hatchback and comparing it to a BMW coupe, and the press likely won't be comparing them that way, either. With the destination/handling charge - it's included in MSRP on BMW's site and so I included it. BMW's web site gave me a starting point of $33,150 for the 3 Series. I chose the highest-priced 3 Series I could, the 335i xDrive Gran Turismo, and I tried my best to add everything I could and I ended up at $62,145, including destination/handling. A separate M3 didn't seem to be listed on the 3-series page so perhaps I missed an even more expensive version.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Shows you how inefficient the LEAF is when the larger heavier S60 has almost the same wh/mi.
Candleflame
Active Member
The Model S with a 85kwh battery can bareley do 200 miles at a reasonable speed. What makes you think that a Model 3 can do it with 50kwh? Remember Musk is talking about real world range. Not crappy EPA range.
I dunno, I'm typically just above 200 wh/mile on my Leaf in the summer (~80% driving at 50mph or less). I don't see many Teslas pulling that off. I sustained 250 wh/mile at 70 mph for about an hour recently.
Anyways, I'll probably want a few options but I can live without them. I'll have to see the lease v. purchase numbers--if the options aren't too bad (about half S cost), I'll probably go with AWD and smaller battery. Supercharging may be optional for me, but I"ll see. I've been fine without AWD so far, but I think it'd just be really nice to have when it snows here without having to worry as much about being on the road. I also never switch into winter wheels, and I don't want to start.
For leasing, I'm the reverse of many people here and have only leased, but prefer buying the M3. I do want to be an early adapter and drive a Tesla into the ground.
If the advanced safety features are tied to the tech package, then I'll be going with the tech package.
Unfortunately I'm trying to keep my budget to a rather low 40-42.5k, so I doubt I'll get everything I want. I'm planning to have my mortgage paid off by M3 time though that will cut into my savings. Hopefully TSLA will skyrocket enough as that could easily pay for the entire car
I'm on a lease with my Leaf which will be up in summer 2018, so I'm going to try and order ASAP to get my car before then. It sounds like Nissan is receptive to lease extensions as needed though, to help out with the timing.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The Tech Package has been standard on Model S for about a year. There is a separate lighting and convenience package that includes extra interior lights, powered hatch, and fog lights, I think that's what you refer to as the "Upgraded interior package". I also think they will probably offer two battery sizes like they have with the Model S. Because of Elon's promise, the base model at $35K will have an EPA 200 mile range. The bigger pack will probably give a range comparable to the Model S top range.
Supercharging may or may not be a separate thing on the Model 3. It's been standard on the Model S for some time. I suspect AutoPilot is going to become a standard feature on all Teslas like Supercharging has become standard, but I could be wrong about that. I'm sure it will be built into the Model 3, even if it isn't enabled.
Somewhere along the line someone is going to figure out how to hack the firmware and enable features Tesla charges extra to turn on.
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