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2024 Tesla MS Rumors

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Interesting discussion.

I'm on the other side. I ordered a MSP and I think I am going thru with the purchase. I totally get your point of view too. I could easily be swayed. But, timing things perfectly is difficult with Tesla. I've been eying a MSP, Lucid, I7 for a few months. I just think they value and the charging network is too good to pass up right now. I don't really care that much about any battery upgrades or ambient lights. I would love a HUD, but I don't see that coming. I think the chances are greater that a refresh would come with unimportant upgrades (to me) and a much higher price.
I don’t disagree. Part of what’s holding me back is seeing what they do with the refresh Model 3 Performance. I’d personally rather a 3 Plaid than an S Plaid even at the same price. That said I’m going to Colorado next month and rented a Plaid S on Turo. If I absolutely love it I’ll just go for it.
 
I bought my Model S Plaid three days ago with EDD of Sep-Oct 2023 and have my tri-motor Cybertruck ordered; heard there might be a quad-motor? gotta have that! I may change the CT order … we’ll see.
The refreshed M3 didn’t do it for me, specifically the front, i.e. it’s watered down, and if they do the same with the MS front it would ruin it for me, no matter what other changes, goodies they do.
 
My cent: the huge discount recently granted on MS is a clear sign that something "major" is going to happen.

Those discounts happened in the past: remember when they were on the point to sell the MS Refresh two years ago?.

Thus, excluding that discounts are in relation to minor refresh, I "dream" that they are doing something on the batteries. Not necessarily 4680 (which probably require some important hardware changes), but a chemical improvement of existing format.
If I am not mistaken, Panasonic said that they were able to improve their cells density by 5% per year. Considering that the gross capacity of today's MS is still the one available in 2017 (or 2018?), a 20-30% increase is definitively possible, if Tesla decides to have it.

Elon is confusing on this point: in 2020 he pushed the idea of a MS having 600 miles range (MSplaid+). Than it was cancelled.
Changing his mind, he declared that 400 miles range are more than enough.
Maybe he is changing position again, under the pressure of competitors.
Lucid a part, we see NIO and Zeekr marketing vehicles comparable to MS with 140/150 kWh battery.
Stellantis has now announced a Peugeot 3008 with 435 miles range and 98 kWh battery, which will be built on the "Medium STLA platform".
This makes it credible that the "Large STLA platform" will really maintain the 500 miles range promise - soon.

A Model S with the same weight but 130 kWh battery would stop competition, considering the other advantages of the "tesla environment"...