2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[everman]

okay here is the deal Everman
i think it might be best to keep the total call option position below a certain % of your portfolio and devote the significant portion to common. in my case the ratio of common to calls is approximately 15 to 1 or less than 6.25% of my TSLA position is in Leaps.
now this may change as the market value of my calls fluctuates. however, i do NOT think it would be wise for me to suggest loading up on Leaps in an IRA. see, it all boils down to percentages. now, if i had a total portfolio of $100K or less than i would be an aggressive buyer of TSLA leaps with maybe even 50% to 75% or even 100 % of my portfolio in TSLA leaps in a taxable account. if i had a portfolio of upto $1 then i would limit my TSLA calls to no more than 30% of my portfolio. again in a taxable account but that is just me and this is in no way any suggestion or recommendation or an advice.
having said that this is a golden time to buy TSLA leaps. personally, i have not bought a single LEAP for well over 6 months now. all i am doing is buying common like crazy.
i think you got at least a $1 position in TSLA if not more so my best guess is that you're all set to take it upto anywhere from $7 to $10 or even $17 to $20 over the next 5 to 10 years if you do nothing but simply hold all your common stock and not worry about LEAPs. however, if you want more in life than that and you want an adrenaline rush then go for it and switch from common to calls as you are proposing to do. Personally, i would not do it, at least not in an IRA unless i had at least $2 or more worth of common sitting in a Roth or something. however, i am not in the business of giving advice and i wanna make it crystal clear that this is definitely NOT an advice. Don't blame me if you fail to switch your shares into LEAPS and this MF takes off to the moon ( as i fully suspect it will) and you miss out on huge profits. on the other hand, do not blame me if you DO convert from common to LEAPS and Elon Musk decides that EVs are not so cool anymore and he becomes CEO of GM or F instead to produce more ICE and the sucker tanks to $310 or below (as many naive longs on this board hope) and your LEAPS go into non tax deductible deep losses.
i'll post my personal thoughts on SP especially for you on the next few posts
NONE OF THIS IS AN ADVICE in any way shape or form nor should it be construed as one
(i am the guy who initially started writing "not an advice" on my posts)

Thanks so much TT! I’ll digest this tonight and get with you tomorrow. I like the idea of increasing exposure some, but keeping it a smaller overall percentage of my position. I’ll do some modeling tomorrow,

Thanks again!

 

[Robertj]

I am getting the feeling from Elon series of tweets from the factory floor that we may be in for some pleasant surprise
One email , message to wsj
2nd email , I am felling good about the progress we are making!

 

[Mich]

Instagram post by Elon Musk • Oct 12, 2017 at 4:32am UTC

Lovely...

 

[mongo]

Off topic, but I can't let this stand. No it doesn't. It involves solving a division to the limit but the difference is absolutely crucial.

But he was really really close to the right answer. ;-)
Does the arrow hit Zeno?

 

[bobo]

Anyone located in Sweden or Nordic countries and care to elaborate on the value of the different BULL certificates issued on the nordic markets?
For example:
BULLTESLAX2AVA
BULLTESLAX2AVA bolagsfakta – Köp aktien/se aktiekursen för BULL TESLA X2 AVA - Nordnet

or BULL TESLA X6 C
BULL TESLA X6 C bolagsfakta – Köp aktien/se aktiekursen för BULL TESLA X6 C - Nordnet

or MINILONG TESLA VT44
MINILONG TESLA VT44 (MINILONG TESLA VT44) - Köp aktien på NDX Sweden - Nordnet

I am interested in some options exposure, but have limited possibility to buy such on the american markets.
Thank you in advance!

 

[AlMc]

okay here is the deal Everman
i think it might be best to keep the total call option position below a certain % of your portfolio and devote the significant portion to common. in my case the ratio of common to calls is approximately 15 to 1 or less than 6.25% of my TSLA position is in Leaps.
now this may change as the market value of my calls fluctuates. however, i do NOT think it would be wise for me to suggest loading up on Leaps in an IRA. see, it all boils down to percentages. now, if i had a total portfolio of $100K or less than i would be an aggressive buyer of TSLA leaps with maybe even 50% to 75% or even 100 % of my portfolio in TSLA leaps in a taxable account. if i had a portfolio of upto $1 then i would limit my TSLA calls to no more than 30% of my portfolio. again in a taxable account but that is just me and this is in no way any suggestion or recommendation or an advice.
having said that this is a golden time to buy TSLA leaps. personally, i have not bought a single LEAP for well over 6 months now. all i am doing is buying common like crazy.
i think you got at least a $1 position in TSLA if not more so my best guess is that you're all set to take it upto anywhere from $7 to $10 or even $17 to $20 over the next 5 to 10 years if you do nothing but simply hold all your common stock and not worry about LEAPs. however, if you want more in life than that and you want an adrenaline rush then go for it and switch from common to calls as you are proposing to do. Personally, i would not do it, at least not in an IRA unless i had at least $2 or more worth of common sitting in a Roth or something. however, i am not in the business of giving advice and i wanna make it crystal clear that this is definitely NOT an advice. Don't blame me if you fail to switch your shares into LEAPS and this MF takes off to the moon ( as i fully suspect it will) and you miss out on huge profits. on the other hand, do not blame me if you DO convert from common to LEAPS and Elon Musk decides that EVs are not so cool anymore and he becomes CEO of GM or F instead to produce more ICE and the sucker tanks to $310 or below (as many naive longs on this board hope) and your LEAPS go into non tax deductible deep losses.
i'll post my personal thoughts on SP especially for you on the next few posts
NONE OF THIS IS AN ADVICE in any way shape or form nor should it be construed as one
(i am the guy who initially started writing "not an advice" on my posts)

@TT007: When people post investment *not advice/advice* I try my best to understand their logic/goals. I admit that we have different frame's of reference and I may have misjudged yours and your tolerance for risk. Please correct me if I am wrong about my assessment of your frame of reference. I also understand that the linked post was directed at another TMC contributor but it perked my interest in how you invest your personal funds.

Amount of investable funds: large
Risk tolerance: high
Reward: looking to max your gains vs protecting capital/OK with single stock portfolio
Price targets: $700 by J19; possibly $2k by 1/Q2 2020

Based on these assumptions (which could be wrong) if I were working under these assumptions with my money I would be holding 50% stock and 50% J19 $680s and then selling the shares and investing in J20 $700+ (highest strike price available).

If I did this I would be making much more profit than just holding lots of common. For every $10K invested today I would be getting roughly 30 shares or 20 J19 680s ( $5/contract). If the SP is $700 in J19 my investment in shares has doubled but my J19 680s have increased to $20 (300% gain).

While the numbers are not available at this time to calculate any profit on the scenario with the J20s if the PT was anywhere over even 1K by J20 your profit would be even more substantial.

Thanks for answering my question as I am undoubtably a much more conservative investor than I perceive you too be and am just trying to understand your strategy.

I would have asked in a PM but your account has prohibited that. If you wish to answer in a PM please feel free to do so. Thanks

 

[DurandalAI]

Payday, time for some more pebbles, especially at this discounted price.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Thanks so much TT! I’ll digest this tonight and get with you tomorrow. I like the idea of increasing exposure some, but keeping it a smaller overall percentage of my position. I’ll do some modeling tomorrow,

Thanks again!

You're welcome
Again, to put things in perspective I've done crazy things with call options in my life like putting well over $500k in short term TSLA calls back in 2014 when it was a significantly high % of my total portfolio and I simply got lucky with my timing back then. So, all I'm saying is that one should only do what one feels comfortable with and there's no right and no wrong. There's only profits and losses.

 

[TrendTrader007]

@TT007: When people post investment *not advice/advice* I try my best to understand their logic/goals. I admit that we have different frame's of reference and I may have misjudged yours and your tolerance for risk. Please correct me if I am wrong about my assessment of your frame of reference. I also understand that the linked post was directed at another TMC contributor but it perked my interest in how you invest your personal funds.

Amount of investable funds: large
Risk tolerance: high
Reward: looking to max your gains vs protecting capital/OK with single stock portfolio
Price targets: $700 by J19; possibly $2k by 1/Q2 2020

Based on these assumptions (which could be wrong) if I were working under these assumptions with my money I would be holding 50% stock and 50% J19 $680s and then selling the shares and investing in J20 $700+ (highest strike price available).

If I did this I would be making much more profit than just holding lots of common. For every $10K invested today I would be getting roughly 30 shares or 20 J19 680s ( $5/contract). If the SP is $700 in J19 my investment in shares has doubled but my J19 680s have increased to $20 (300% gain).

While the numbers are not available at this time to calculate any profit on the scenario with the J20s if the PT was anywhere over even 1K by J20 your profit would be even more substantial.

Thanks for answering my question as I am undoubtably a much more conservative investor than I perceive you too be and am just trying to understand your strategy.

I would have asked in a PM but your account has prohibited that. If you wish to answer in a PM please feel free to do so. Thanks

You're right about much higher profits with J19s than common
The reason why I keep my options below 6 to 7 % of my total TSLA position is simply:
I'm fallible and I could be very wrong. SP could stagnate until 2019 albeit highly unlikely and I don't want to put an artificial limit on my TSLA exposure in terms of longevity
I've got more than enough common that I don't need or want any more high risk exposure through LEAPS which are not as liquid as common
Theoretically, I could liquidate all my common in less than 10 minutes with no worries about liquidity in case of a major stock or market crash
Not so with leaps without paying dearly
The larger your position the bigger the liquidity concerns

 

[1kEE]

Tsla volume is low this morning, indexes kinda soft, but no large "morning dip" yet. Wonder what's up? I was hoping for a larger than yesterday morning dip....

 

[LoveTSLA]

Close above 360 today anyone? I think it will . Or tomorrow definitely.

 

[SBenson]

You're right about much higher profits with J19s than common
The reason why I keep my options below 6 to 7 % of my total TSLA position is simply:
I'm fallible and I could be very wrong. SP could stagnate until 2019 albeit highly unlikely and I don't want to put an artificial limit on my TSLA exposure in terms of longevity
I've got more than enough common that I don't need or want any more high risk exposure through LEAPS which are not as liquid as common
Theoretically, I could liquidate all my common in less than 10 minutes with no worries about liquidity in case of a major stock or market crash
Not so with leaps without paying dearly
The larger your position the bigger the liquidity concerns

TT, As I am learning your strategy, I see that you are aggressive but at the same time you put in adequate safety buffers all around. You seem to have figured the right balance.

So question for you. What do you think is safe amount of margin? Say on a $1 portfolio. How much is ok? Would you take on more if you are investing in multiple names vs just one? Does it change based on the interest being charged or the margin limit that the broker imposes on?

Thanks a ton

 

[austinEV]

You're right about much higher profits with J19s than common
The reason why I keep my options below 6 to 7 % of my total TSLA position is simply:
I'm fallible and I could be very wrong. SP could stagnate until 2019 albeit highly unlikely and I don't want to put an artificial limit on my TSLA exposure in terms of longevity
I've got more than enough common that I don't need or want any more high risk exposure through LEAPS which are not as liquid as common
Theoretically, I could liquidate all my common in less than 10 minutes with no worries about liquidity in case of a major stock or market crash
Not so with leaps without paying dearly
The larger your position the bigger the liquidity concerns

I mean, if I had the kind of capital TT suggests he has I would have a ton of common too. That way you can just laugh off every retest of 330. If you believe in TSLA long term, common lets you not care if it takes a year or 5. If you have 100k and you really need it to be 500k you need to use calls and sweat every minute of every day. If you have $10M and a modest lifestyle... well going to 15 or 20M in 10 years is fantastic and can be done with common, presumably. If you have enough $$ you can afford to be cautious.

 

[austinEV]

This flat topped triangle wants to break out/up:

 

[JRP3]

Maybe the Market Action thread isn't the best place to discuss TT's trading strategies? There seems to be enough interest in it for it's own thread.

 

[dc_h]

Instagram post by Elon Musk • Oct 12, 2017 at 4:32am UTC

Lovely...

Any ideas if that is full speed, or will the press go faster after more tuning? I would expect more of a blurring fast process, eventually.

 

[austinEV]

Any ideas if that is full speed, or will the press go faster after more tuning? I would expect more of a blurring fast process, eventually.

If I recall correctly, those presses have tons of idle capacity. Like they can already handle a 500k-1M throughput and always could. On tours (I have done at least 3) you never even see them moving, just the vast racks of already stamped parts.

 

[avoigt]

Paris to ban petrol and diesel cars by 2030

I would not be surprised if other cities are following.... 2030 is pretty soon for a 100% ban

 

[Thumper]

It is certainly nice to see the stamping working well in the one station shown in Elon's recent Instagram. There is however nothing remarkable about it. This is more or less what one would see on any modern stamping line for any product anywhere on earth.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Very close to my $360 sell target for my trading shares. With all the FUD out there and we are close to $360 makes me a little reluctant in selling here...