-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Agreed, but that didn't stop some guy at work asking when I thought I'd be able to get my 3, and if I thought there was any risk Tesla would fold before getting my car produced... Then he brought up the Bolt as an option to replace it. (yeah, he apparently read some of the WSJ crap lately)
Spreading enough FUD to laypeople lowers the chances of some of those doing research and learning the truth behind the FUD. Not only does that keep people away from Tesla and continuing to buy ICE, but it also potentially keeps new people from shifting investments into TSLA by seeding doubt of long term viability. My 16 year old cousin still gets crap about being 80% invested in TSLA (does lawn maintenance & landscaping in wealthy areas, has ~100 shares), even though he bought in around $202...
Only way to do that is make oil/ICE unprofitable. That is coming.
Krugerrand
Meow
More math required. 500,000k cars x 13 body panels per car. Yeah, I get you think it’s a good thing there’s idle time right now based on number of cars currently being produced, but you haven’t a clue what kind of work goes into getting die sets and a brand new, custom built press line for those die sets up and running.
Optimization of those dies and press line takes months just as it takes months to optimize the production line for ramping. Down time right now of that new press line isn’t likely due to ‘we’ve made all the parts we need for this week so shut her down.’ And down time on ModelS/X press lines is highly likely at this stage to be for scheduled maintenance and repair. Otherwise there’d be no need for stamping shops like Thai Summit supplying Tesla because Tesla would just stamp those parts as well since, you know, they have idle press lines.
While true, is there a way to "force" it? Other than use every dollar of federal budget to buy people their own BEVs and Solar PV? A vast amount of people in the USA, specifically, are living paycheck to paycheck. A national fleet of free BEVs would get people off of Oil sooner. But that is impossible - and even the Fed Tax Credit is unfair to the lower income ones, retirees and so on. A rebate is better but so would deeper research into solving the problem of input parts costs. And then there's the education aspects of the population - which is slow to learn. I think this all takes maybe 3-5 decades to undergo a sizable shift. Shell produced a 2050 energy map a few years ago. One unknown is the birth rate impacts through Asia and Africa on the energy demands of a growing population.
Getting off oil right now is a personal decision individuals are making. But it has to be done "faster". Even a 10% BEV sales ratio of new cars may take 20 years or more for full fleet replacement. And that is without heavier trucks/buses/planes being changed. We are just under 1.5% nor for plug-in "take rates". This means replacement of fleet will take 90 years unless this speeds up quickly.
One thing I think we need politicians to do is stop forcing economic growth as the only way. By doing so, resources are depleted, used faster than replacement rates and it causes families to grow too fast. Find me a politician willing to run on a "let's slow things down - for our grand-children" approach. Far between, if any. They all are trying to grow because economic growth means more leverage of the underlying monetary structure. It's too dangerous to reverse that - until it's too late. China is setting their own bubble in motion by moving from 1-child to 2-child policy and this allows more "people-based economic growth". India is also blowing bubbles further with their own child policies. When does it end? When all the billionaires have setup on distant island enclaves and can watch from the safety of say New Zealand or similar?
In terms of climate change, I go with "people want to live near a known hurricane/flood/earthquake zone, they're gonna eventually get some serious damage". Growth of intelligence should be the biggest growth aspect of this century - hopefully we can push that agenda.
Last edited:
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I'm either one hundred percent in cash or options (except for one share) until at least 2H of 2018. What's to sweat about?
1. I'm sure that the SP is going up so why not take advantage of that? It's just common sense.
2. If we lose everything so what? It's not worth worrying about. Birds do fine without savings accounts, I'm sure we'll be fine.
BTW we started with ~$180k, now we have about $360k after pulling out ~$90k.
Last edited:
Oh I am in the 100% sweating it camp too. Just longing for the day when I don't have to be. The very idea of being 100% in Tesla common strikes me as positively boring and luxurious.
More math required. 500,000k cars x 13 body panels per car. Yeah, I get you think it’s a good thing there’s idle time right now based on number of cars currently being produced, but you haven’t a clue what kind of work goes into getting die sets and a brand new, custom built press line for those die sets up and running.
Optimization of those dies and press line takes months just as it takes months to optimize the production line for ramping. Down time right now of that new press line isn’t likely due to ‘we’ve made all the parts we need for this week so shut her down.’ And down time on ModelS/X press lines is highly likely at this stage to be for scheduled maintenance and repair. Otherwise there’d be no need for stamping shops like Thai Summit supplying Tesla because Tesla would just stamp those parts as well since, you know, they have idle press lines.
We seem to be talking past each other. It's true I don't know much about the current stamping capacity, but you keep implying that you do. So please tell me... what is the current capacity? I would be very interested in how they can get to 500k+ without the stamping capacity for it. And if they don't, as you suggest, that strikes me as a real disaster. Or do you just figure they will outsource body panel stamping? I have never heard anyone suggest this so it strikes me as very strange in my mental manufacturing model.
Edit: Maybe you are just talking about how they have to do *work* to get the stamping area supporting the model 3. of course that's true, but it doesn't concern me since it doesn't feel like its in the critical path for the M3 capacity.
Last edited:
jelloslug
Active Member
that looks normal compared to other stamping I have seen.
Well we are green already this week. I wish I could do day trading or short term trades. But I am sure I will be a loser if I do that. Long term investment for TSLA will be rewarded big time.
Krugerrand
Meow
For class A body panels, as I mentioned in an earlier post, you’re talking in the 10-15 stroke per minute range, preferably closer to 15 and maybe even a stroke or two higher. Depends on the quality of die design, part being formed, material being formed, etc...
A quick search of Schuler and I found an advertised run rate range of 12-23 strokes/min for their large presses that they make for this kind of stuff.
You can’t simply ‘turn it up faster’ because you have to make more parts that day. Doesn’t work like that. Doing so causes things like part distortion, splits/tears, robot accidents and so on. The dies and press will have been designed specifically for each other with very specific run rates. We can be optimistic and assume that’s the high end of the run rate, be pessimistic and assume the low end, or we can be most realistic and pick a mid-range run rate.
Class A body panels are a whole other level of difficulty. Any little blemish, high spot, low spot etc... would have to be reworked by hand if you don’t want to have it show up after painting. Tesla makes some of the most difficult body panels I’ve ever seen on a car and then they went and made them out of aluminum! Frankly, I’m in awe what they created. People in stamping have to be living a nightmare.
(On a side note, OEMs make what’s called ‘a black car’ to check final quality of body panels because black shows every imperfection. The other day I saw a brand new Maserati with what’s known as a ‘wave’ along the entire passenger side of the car (car was black). A wave is indicative of poor panel formation and distortion. I was shocked to see such an extreme lack of quality and on panels that aren’t as shapely as Tesla’s. I’ve never seen anything remotely like it on a S or X.)
Krugerrand
Meow
If your LEAPs are 'deep in the money', there is little or no time value, even if the expiration is far away. Therefore, instead of closing those LEAP positions, you can perfectly hedge them by shorting common.
Last edited:
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Dwarf or not is irrelevant! It's common sense!
If you pay money or sell for less than about half way between the bid/ask price you are throwing money away!
Krugerrand
Meow
I’ve worked in press shops, so yes I’m quite familiar with presses, dies and the like.
Obviously I don’t know what run rates Tesla is aiming for and while one might assume they’ll try and push the envelope, the envelope can only be stretched so far. Metals, presses and die sets have to adhere to the physics.
Tesla has at least 4 press lines that I’ve seen and know of. What I don’t know is which panels for which vehicles are run in each of those presses, if any of the die sets can be made to work in more than one press line, if Tesla plans on the new Schuler line doing Model 3 panels exclusively, if any of the other press lines will be making any Model 3 panels etc., etc., etc. it’s just not as simple as doing a bit of multiplication. There are literally 100’s of factors to consider.
As I noted for @bonaire, a quick search of Schuler presses revealed a stroke rate of 12-23 per minute for the kind of press line Tesla just had put in for M3. We have supporting video evidence of 12 strokes/min for at least one part, though no idea if that’s optimized yet and no idea about stroke rate for other M3 panels.
As I also mentioned in my post to @bonaire, I’m currently in awe of some of the aluminum panels that exist on the S and X. I don’t know how they did it. I’ve never seen anything like it on any other car.
No, I don’t think Tesla plans to outsource body panel production but logically they could if needs be. My guess would be that if they find themselves running into problems producing parts they’ll simply go out and buy another press line, which they’re going to need for the Y anyway.
Each year GM spends more than 3 billion dollars on marketing/advertisement. It's conceivable that they spend some of the money creatively. So we get those "independent" reviews. This is far more effective than TV ads.
I don't know how much do big shorts spend to attack Tesla. I think it's a big number each year. A friend of mine who is an intelligent investor, in 2013, after I strongly recommended TSLA at $50, he did "research" and ended up shorting one million dollars of it. I guess he read all the FUD and was convinced. I can see FUD works in many cases.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
My points were that I'm not sweating it.
And that right now there's no reason to sweat if you are 100% in options. Beyond that I believe that if you are following Tesla closely that right now there's no good reason not to be 100% in options.
Crap, seems we have a recall on out hands... Tesla recalling 11,000 Model X SUVs for seat issue
DETROIT (AP) — Tesla Inc. is recalling 11,000 Model X SUVs worldwide because their rear seats might not lock into place.
The recall involves vehicles with fold-flat second row seats made between Oct. 28, 2016, and Aug. 16, 2017. Tesla believes only about 3 percent of the recalled vehicles have the issue.
Tesla says some cables in the seat may have been improperly tightened, which prevents the left seat from locking in an upright position. If it's not properly locked, it could move forward during a crash.
The Palo Alto, California-based automaker says it has seen no reports of injuries from the issue, which was discovered during internal testing.
Tesla began informing customers about the recall Thursday. Owners can take their Model X to a dealer for repairs or contact Tesla's mobile repair units.
DETROIT (AP) — Tesla Inc. is recalling 11,000 Model X SUVs worldwide because their rear seats might not lock into place.
The recall involves vehicles with fold-flat second row seats made between Oct. 28, 2016, and Aug. 16, 2017. Tesla believes only about 3 percent of the recalled vehicles have the issue.
Tesla says some cables in the seat may have been improperly tightened, which prevents the left seat from locking in an upright position. If it's not properly locked, it could move forward during a crash.
The Palo Alto, California-based automaker says it has seen no reports of injuries from the issue, which was discovered during internal testing.
Tesla began informing customers about the recall Thursday. Owners can take their Model X to a dealer for repairs or contact Tesla's mobile repair units.
3Victoria
Active Member
The transition from horse to car happened very quickly. The change to EV may be surprisingly quick, too. Climate change is coming, unless we mitigate it.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Article
