2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[zdriver]

A friend of mine who is an intelligent investor, in 2013, after I strongly recommended TSLA at $50, he did "research" and ended up shorting one million dollars of it.

How'd that go? I'm hoping there's an "I told you so" somewhere in there...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Very large surge in volume starting 15:50 @zdriver @Papafox

edit: Tesla is recalling 11,000 Model X's for seat issue

CNBC Now on Twitter

Tesla believes only ~3% of recalled vehicles have the issue. This is a non-event.

Tesla is recalling 11,000 Model X SUVs worldwide because their rear seats might not lock into place.

The recall involves vehicles with fold-flat second row seats made between Oct. 28, 2016, and Aug. 16, 2017. Tesla believes only about 3 percent of the recalled vehicles have the issue.

Tesla says some cables in the seat may have been improperly tightened, which prevents the left seat from locking in an upright position. If it's not properly locked, it could move forward during a crash.

The Palo Alto, California-based automaker says it has seen no reports of injuries from the issue, which was discovered during internal testing.

Tesla began informing customers about the recall Thursday. Owners can take their Model X to a dealer for repairs or contact Tesla's mobile repair units.

 

[TrendTrader007]

TT, As I am learning your strategy, I see that you are aggressive but at the same time you put in adequate safety buffers all around. You seem to have figured the right balance.

So question for you. What do you think is safe amount of margin? Say on a $1 portfolio. How much is ok? Would you take on more if you are investing in multiple names vs just one? Does it change based on the interest being charged or the margin limit that the broker imposes on?

Thanks a ton[/QUOTe

TT, As I am learning your strategy, I see that you are aggressive but at the same time you put in adequate safety buffers all around. You seem to have figured the right balance.

So question for you. What do you think is safe amount of margin? Say on a $1 portfolio. How much is ok? Would you take on more if you are investing in multiple names vs just one? Does it change based on the interest being charged or the margin limit that the broker imposes on?

Thanks a ton

I personally would not exceed 50 to 60 % margin no matter what the size of portfolio is
I am currently 156% long TSLA and I pay 4% interest and will only get a margin call if it falls below 30%
when I had $1 portfolio I only had 20% margin. I was never long more than 120% at any given time, not counting options
multiple names yes you could take more as long as they have a low correlation with each other
yes it is highly dependent on interest charged by broker and margin limit
i'm paying well in excess of $24 K in margin interest per month or like $800/day or $290K per year on my TSLA position currently and it will only go up as the Fed raises interest rates so it is all very relative
you're welcome

 

[TrendTrader007]

I mean, if I had the kind of capital TT suggests he has I would have a ton of common too. That way you can just laugh off every retest of 330. If you believe in TSLA long term, common lets you not care if it takes a year or 5. If you have 100k and you really need it to be 500k you need to use calls and sweat every minute of every day. If you have $10M and a modest lifestyle... well going to 15 or 20M in 10 years is fantastic and can be done with common, presumably. If you have enough $$ you can afford to be cautious.

well stated. Totally agree

 

[zdriver]

Very large surge in volume starting 15:50 @zdriver @Papafox

edit: Tesla is recalling 11,000 Model X's for seat issue

Yeah, algos hit it hard immediately. 105k shares volume first minute, 90k shares second minute. Accumulators show a couple tens of thousands of shares, so likely more shorts piled in on the volume spikes.

Edit: worth noting that if by some freak chance we open and stay green, above $357 tomorrow, all those short term shorts will be trapped...

 

[aznt1217]

Very large surge in volume starting 15:50 @zdriver @Papafox

edit: Tesla is recalling 11,000 Model X's for seat issue

CNBC Now on Twitter

Tesla believes only ~3% of recalled vehicles have the issue. This is a non-event.

Tesla is recalling 11,000 Model X SUVs worldwide because their rear seats might not lock into place.

The recall involves vehicles with fold-flat second row seats made between Oct. 28, 2016, and Aug. 16, 2017. Tesla believes only about 3 percent of the recalled vehicles have the issue.

Tesla says some cables in the seat may have been improperly tightened, which prevents the left seat from locking in an upright position. If it's not properly locked, it could move forward during a crash.

The Palo Alto, California-based automaker says it has seen no reports of injuries from the issue, which was discovered during internal testing.

Tesla began informing customers about the recall Thursday. Owners can take their Model X to a dealer for repairs or contact Tesla's mobile repair units.

buying opp for those that get it.

 

[FredTMC]

buying opp for those that get it.

Agreed. Very minor blimp. Self imposed recall.

 

[Reciprocity]

buying opp for those that get it.

Too many buying opportunities lately and not enough money

 

[BioSehnsucht]

You say buying opportunity, I say noise in the price...

Now if it dropped to Feb 2016 levels, on the other hand

 

[Krugerrand]

Correction @austinEV 500,000k x 10 or 11 or 12 or 13.

Tesla could be making pairs so that would require one less die set. ie., might be making left and right fender in one die set, or a right and left hand door in one...that happens and thus would decrease the number of hits needed.

 

[techmaven]

I had the opposite experience. I have toured 3 times. 2013, 2014, and 2016. The press was always moving.

We are under NDA. Let me just say this wasn’t my experience.

Also, I do not expect the stamping of aluminum parts to be the hold up anyways. Musk showed us something without showing us anything.

 

[Ulmo]

Me too and I've seen both.

Ditto on the Elon Instagram stamping movie being not new news. We already thoroughly discussed in this thread half a year ago about how stamping is already well in hand.

 

[Intl Professor]

I liked DragonWatch's
↑ "Republicon Confederate"

Republican Anarchists might also work since that is the end result of the individualistic culture we have. (I am dumfounded by authorities seeking a motive for the recent shooting in Las Vegas. It is clearly, "see what I can do to attract your attention with my purposeless life and yours? At least I'm not on Fentenal.") Or Republican Corporatists, a transitional moniker. Or what Norman Ornstein might call Republican Kakistocrats,

There's a Word for the State of American Democracy: Kakistocracy

That is the greatest danger our Founders found with democracies.

In short we have become a mediocracy. That will certainly affect stock prices in future and portends a massive crash.

 

[FredTMC]

Also, AFAIK, the Model 3 exterior body panels are Steel rather than Aluminum

Steel is far easier to Stamp because it doesn't have nearly the "spring back" tendencies that Aluminum has. In other words steel tends to hold it targeted shape better after being stamped

My understanding is aluminum takes a lot longer to perfect the stamping because of the spring back effect with aluminum

 

[elasalle]

Very large surge in volume starting 15:50 @zdriver @Papafox

edit: Tesla is recalling 11,000 Model X's for seat issue

CNBC Now on Twitter

Tesla believes only ~3% of recalled vehicles have the issue. This is a non-event.

Tesla is recalling 11,000 Model X SUVs worldwide because their rear seats might not lock into place.

The recall involves vehicles with fold-flat second row seats made between Oct. 28, 2016, and Aug. 16, 2017. Tesla believes only about 3 percent of the recalled vehicles have the issue.

Tesla says some cables in the seat may have been improperly tightened, which prevents the left seat from locking in an upright position. If it's not properly locked, it could move forward during a crash.

The Palo Alto, California-based automaker says it has seen no reports of injuries from the issue, which was discovered during internal testing.

Tesla began informing customers about the recall Thursday. Owners can take their Model X to a dealer for repairs or contact Tesla's mobile repair units.

Wasn't following SP this closely in the past. But some of past Tesla recalls like recall for Seat belt, etc with minimal numbers were seen as positive - because tesla was self regulating these recalls and being proactive.

 

[Ulmo]

Wasn't following SP this closely in the past. But some of past Tesla recalls like recall for Seat belt, etc with minimal numbers were seen as positive - because tesla was self regulating these recalls and being proactive.

From what I recall, it took an immediate small SP hit, then shrugged it off later.

 

[kbM3]

Getting off oil right now is a personal decision individuals are making. But it has to be done "faster". Even a 10% BEV sales ratio of new cars may take 20 years or more for full fleet replacement. And that is without heavier trucks/buses/planes being changed. We are just under 1.5% nor for plug-in "take rates". This means replacement of fleet will take 90 years unless this speeds up quickly.

As I understand it, this is incorrect. It would take a 100% BEV sales ratio to roughly replace the fleet in 20 years.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

We are under NDA. Let me just say this wasn’t my experience.

Also, I do not expect the stamping of aluminum parts to be the hold up anyways. Musk showed us something without showing us anything.

Do we have a consensus on what the hold up could be?

Also, why is he posting these videos if it's not informative?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

As I understand it, this is incorrect. It would take a 100% BEV sales ratio to roughly replace the fleet in 20 years.

I think that the replacement cycle will quicken once autonomous driving advances, so I expect 100m+ per year global unit sales starting 2021.

 

[Snapdragon III]

Do we have a consensus on what the hold up could be?

Also, why is he posting these videos if it's not informative?

My hope is that he is posting suggestive, but ultimately non material videos to taunt the Shorts. I hope that he knows things are progressing nicely, and the shorts are in for a world of hurt in the coming months. He also knows that it will make it sting particularly painful if they spend the rest of their lives thinking "If only I had covered when Elon posted the sloth video, and the manufacturing videos. It was so obvious!"