2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[AnneBoleyn]

As Tesla Tops Ford, Elon Musk's Net Worth Rises $1.8 Billion To All-Time High

Tesla: Recreating the American Dream
By A.B. (2017)

Forbes quotes, “Nonetheless, shareholders continue to demonstrate overwhelming optimism, a sentiment further buoyed this week when the company announced its best-ever quarterly production and delivery results” (Kirch, 2017, para 3).


Why is this you may ask? This is my opinion, and maybe it’s just that, but I think most of you may agree. When I think about Tesla, I think it has brought something to the table we haven’t seen for decades… It has inspired us, it has revolutionized the way people see car companies, and it has given us dreams of something bigger, something inspiring… something we can all be a part of. When the Model T came out, it transformed the way people viewed transportation and every household wanted one. By 1927, there were 15 million models. It was part of the American Dream. At that time, Ford was not just a company to make money, it was something every American believed in, they were proud to own one. I think we can agree nearly 100 years later, Tesla is bringing forth the same sentiment.

Tesla is being criticized for being “over-valued,” but they are not just selling a car, they are selling an idea, a belief systemin something better. Can you put a price on that concept? People are tired of commercialism, tired of being told what to buy, and are disillusioned with mainstream America; perhaps, it is for this reason Tesla does not even advertise?

Tesla has said “American’s keep believing, we are bringing you the car you only dreamed could exist, and pretty soon we’ll be taking you to Mars.” They are exciting the same response Americans felt when we rallied behind NASA to go to the moon. They may be taking “one giant leap in technology” but they are also taking “one small step back” in idea, back to the time of the American Dream.

This is even more prominent with the up and coming Model 3, as every American can now be a part of this phenomenon. Musk has seen the need for people to believe in a product again, and embarked on a golden opportunity to do so by making a car the average person can afford, but also be proud to own.

This is not your typical tech stock or even sophisticated car company, it is something rare and exciting, indeed a revolutionary idea holding true to an antique concept none of us are even old enough to remember: The American Dream.

- A.B. April 9, 2017

These were my thoughts after reading the attached article so wanted to share

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR WARNING

When trading re-opens tomorrow, Monday, morning, all further commentary in this thread will focus on current, past, and expected price trends of TSLA, to the specific exclusion of all discussion of interpersonal actions.

 

[winfield100]

As Tesla Tops Ford, Elon Musk's Net Worth Rises $1.8 Billion To All-Time High

Tesla: Recreating the American Dream

@AnneBoleyn This to me is the "American Dream" "human dream" musk is inspiring, not today, not tomorrow, but just around the corner in the near future
WANDERERS -Short Film

 

[TrendTrader007]

As Tesla Tops Ford, Elon Musk's Net Worth Rises $1.8 Billion To All-Time High

Tesla: Recreating the American Dream
By A.B. (2017)

Forbes quotes, “Nonetheless, shareholders continue to demonstrate overwhelming optimism, a sentiment further buoyed this week when the company announced its best-ever quarterly production and delivery results” (Kirch, 2017, para 3).


Why is this you may ask? This is my opinion, and maybe it’s just that, but I think most of you may agree. When I think about Tesla, I think it has brought something to the table we haven’t seen for decades… It has inspired us, it has revolutionized the way people see car companies, and it has given us dreams of something bigger, something inspiring… something we can all be a part of. When the Model T came out, it transformed the way people viewed transportation and every household wanted one. By 1927, there were 15 million models. It was part of the American Dream. At that time, Ford was not just a company to make money, it was something every American believed in, they were proud to own one. I think we can agree nearly 100 years later, Tesla is bringing forth the same sentiment.

Tesla is being criticized for being “over-valued,” but they are not just selling a car, they are selling an idea, a belief systemin something better. Can you put a price on that concept? People are tired of commercialism, tired of being told what to buy, and are disillusioned with mainstream America; perhaps, it is for this reason Tesla does not even advertise?

Tesla has said “American’s keep believing, we are bringing you the car you only dreamed could exist, and pretty soon we’ll be taking you to Mars.” They are exciting the same response Americans felt when we rallied behind NASA to go to the moon. They may be taking “one giant leap in technology” but they are also taking “one small step back” in idea, back to the time of the American Dream.

This is even more prominent with the up and coming Model 3, as every American can now be a part of this phenomenon. Musk has seen the need for people to believe in a product again, and embarked on a golden opportunity to do so by making a car the average person can afford, but also be proud to own.

This is not your typical tech stock or even sophisticated car company, it is something rare and exciting, indeed a revolutionary idea holding true to an antique concept none of us are even old enough to remember: The American Dream.

- A.B. April 9, 2017

These were my thoughts after reading the attached article so wanted to share

Extremely well stated. Thank you. This is exactly why analysts have a hard time justifying teslas current market cap
There is no doubt that this is a story stock similar to story stocks in 1950s and 1960s and then in 1970s investor Made tons of money in story stocks take for example Xerox , Polaroid and many others. The differences that none of those companies actually changed the world for the better whereas Tesla has the potential of changing several industries across the board and changing American landscape as well as that of the world
Hence I believe that this stock is severely under priced
in stock market what has already happened is considered to be safe and whatever has not happened is considered to be risky therefore it is not surprising that many analysts and investors consider Tesla to be a risk investment
It is not possible to successfully invest in TSLA on a technical basis alone
fundamentals are extremely important

 

[AcesDealt]

Extremely well stated. Thank you. This is exactly why analysts have a hard time justifying teslas current market cap
There is no doubt that this is a story stock similar to story stocks in 1950s and 1960s and then in 1970s investor Made tons of money in story stocks take for example Xerox , Polaroid and many others. The differences that none of those companies actually changed the world for the better whereas Tesla has the potential of changing several industries across the board and changing American landscape as well as that of the world
Hence I believe that this stock is severely under priced
in stock market what has already happened is considered to be safe and whatever has not happened is considered to be risky therefore it is not surprising that many analysts and investors consider Tesla to be a risk investment
It is not possible to successfully invest in TSLA on a technical basis alone
fundamentals are extremely important

Tesla at 1M cars annually can be pulling down 50B$ in revenue. If they pull off 8% net margins then they are at 12 P/E or so. This is *fundamentals* and it's left to the reader how probable such an outcome is. In addition, one has to contemplate how Tesla looks *at that time*, which would include prospects to further increase these basic numbers, or monetize things like Tesla Network.

And of course, if you think Tesla Energy is worth much at all you can add that in.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Extremely well stated. Thank you. This is exactly why analysts have a hard time justifying teslas current market cap
There is no doubt that this is a story stock similar to story stocks in 1950s and 1960s and then in 1970s investor Made tons of money in story stocks take for example Xerox , Polaroid and many others. The differences that none of those companies actually changed the world for the better whereas Tesla has the potential of changing several industries across the board and changing American landscape as well as that of the world
Hence I believe that this stock is severely under priced

Xerox basically invented modern personal computing. The amount of carbon saved from this is incalculable to me. How many trips were saved through better communication? how much paper is saved today just because most people get their news online?

To say that these companies did no good is rather critical.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Extremely well stated. Thank you. This is exactly why analysts have a hard time justifying teslas current market cap
There is no doubt that this is a story stock similar to story stocks in 1950s and 1960s and then in 1970s investor Made tons of money in story stocks take for example Xerox , Polaroid and many others. The differences that none of those companies actually changed the world for the better whereas Tesla has the potential of changing several industries across the board and changing American landscape as well as that of the world
Hence I believe that this stock is severely under priced
in stock market what has already happened is considered to be safe and whatever has not happened is considered to be risky therefore it is not surprising that many analysts and investors consider Tesla to be a risk investment
It is not possible to successfully invest in TSLA on a technical basis alone
fundamentals are extremely important

Since everyone is reflecting, and it's not Monday yet...
I'd like to recognize the fact that we live in times when majority of wealth is accumulating to the 1%, and yet, we're lucky to have new bread of super wealthy company founders, that are often driven by mission, wish to change the world for the better, invent new ways of working and end up in the history book, rather than being driven by $$$

To various degree, this is true of the leaders of: TSLA, FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG and then individuals whose companies are not positioned in this direction, but have committed their wealth towards betterment of humanity, like Warren Buffet and Bill Gates.

I've omitted many other smaller companies, my main point is - these are not oil or rail barons of the past, and it's heart warming that as a species, we've gotten to a place where so much effort can be spent in this direction.

And to wrap it up, ultimately TSLA is the poster boy of this new type of companies/leaders, and all of us investors are part of that. I know that my wife signed up to put 100% of all our money in TSLA, because of TSLA mission allignement with her own beliefs; she's working for Environmental Non-profit organization.
BTW, shameless plug, anyone wants to donate from US, she can get 2x$ match from US Gvmt. and 1x$ match from Canada gvmt, so 1$ of donations becomes 4$ working to protect nature. These are programs of Nature Conservancy of Canada(largest Canadian env. non-profit) and American Friends of Nature Conservancy of Canada.

 

[Starno]

Ok guys, so your thoughts on tomorrow ?
I say, it's going to fluctuate with maybe a stock price that go under 301 during the day, but generally throughout the day, the trend will be to go higher, and I predict a close in about this range : 304,5 - 305,8.

 

[geneclean55]

As long as macro is compliant, I think it will surge to around 308 not long after open and then drift back down to around 305 during the day.

 

[FredTMC]

As long as macro is compliant, I think it will surge to around 308 not long after open and then drift back down to around 305 during the day.

S&P Futures go live at 3pm PST

If markets have a neutral or positive day tomorrow, then I certainly think TSLA will trade higher tomorrow (All Time Highes). Certainly helps that TSLA finished Friday near HOD and ATHs. Existing Shorts must be freaking out.

New shorts will probably open positions too (speculative retail 'hot money').
I doubt many institutional investors will open new short positions

 

[1kEE]

Okay- wow.
This is my family for the record, he has helped me a lot, and I was excited about his help. Any of you would want to show your gratitude as well, instead he has gotten attacked by this forum, which is ridiculous because he has been an avid supporter of this group for a year.
He manages my account with far more caution than he does his own.
I may be naive to the SM and know very little in this regard, but I assure you no monetary exchange has ever taken place between TT007 and myself, and never will- he doesn't need it. He's just a TSLA enthusiast who loves the SM.

I don't think anyone here has attacked TT... I certainly have not posted anything that I intended to be an attack.

We are posting alternate viewpoints and basically moderating TT's ultra-bullish beliefs and your optimism with a "reality check". This reminds me a lot of the conversations we had here prior to earnings when we had the parabolic move from 250 to 280.

I'm not saying TT is evel or not a talented trader. And I'm not saying the stock price will fall to 280 tomorrow (I happen to be holding a large bet on the opposite). However all the above possibilities, however remote, need to be considered.

Unless you enjoy gambling with money as opposed to intelligently investing (difference being trying to understand your odds and possible outcomes vs just jumping in and whatever happens happens).

 

[fysician]

Shorts are what they are, looking for small dips to make money on. In my opinion, the market has trouble valuing the new paradigm that tesla is presenting. That is why MS is PT is based on tesla mobility, since they can model that after lyft, uber and other ride sharing services (those models were made before to do this).

The tesla paradigm shift is EV but also with M3 a totally automated production, which does not exist so no model can be made to value it. The tesla paradigm shift includes energy storage-- but those models are based on old data of utilities and as battery prices fall, the model changes, rapidly. Modeling solar is hard to, as recent, in the past five years, other solar companies have all been hit with rapidly decreased prices (& presumably costs) and have not been successful. Modeling AI self driving cars or AI based services is hard, but recently some companies are paying $$$ to buy in to the tech. So that helps the model, and tells us that there is actually a value to an AI based service

So the venn diagram intersection of energy storage, solar, automated car production, and tech AI developed self driving cars presents a whole new vision, which the market has not seen future profits or value in--based on old or recent data and that such a paradigm shift in one company has not before been seen.

Still hoping to see spacex launched tesla satellites for separate wireless internet and possibly wireless energy transmission...

Wireless energy transmission from a satellite? Like how Nikola Tesla did

As Tesla Tops Ford, Elon Musk's Net Worth Rises $1.8 Billion To All-Time High

Tesla: Recreating the American Dream
By A.B. (2017)

Forbes quotes, “Nonetheless, shareholders continue to demonstrate overwhelming optimism, a sentiment further buoyed this week when the company announced its best-ever quarterly production and delivery results” (Kirch, 2017, para 3).


Why is this you may ask? This is my opinion, and maybe it’s just that, but I think most of you may agree. When I think about Tesla, I think it has brought something to the table we haven’t seen for decades… It has inspired us, it has revolutionized the way people see car companies, and it has given us dreams of something bigger, something inspiring… something we can all be a part of. When the Model T came out, it transformed the way people viewed transportation and every household wanted one. By 1927, there were 15 million models. It was part of the American Dream. At that time, Ford was not just a company to make money, it was something every American believed in, they were proud to own one. I think we can agree nearly 100 years later, Tesla is bringing forth the same sentiment.

Tesla is being criticized for being “over-valued,” but they are not just selling a car, they are selling an idea, a belief systemin something better. Can you put a price on that concept? People are tired of commercialism, tired of being told what to buy, and are disillusioned with mainstream America; perhaps, it is for this reason Tesla does not even advertise?

Tesla has said “American’s keep believing, we are bringing you the car you only dreamed could exist, and pretty soon we’ll be taking you to Mars.” They are exciting the same response Americans felt when we rallied behind NASA to go to the moon. They may be taking “one giant leap in technology” but they are also taking “one small step back” in idea, back to the time of the American Dream.

This is even more prominent with the up and coming Model 3, as every American can now be a part of this phenomenon. Musk has seen the need for people to believe in a product again, and embarked on a golden opportunity to do so by making a car the average person can afford, but also be proud to own.

This is not your typical tech stock or even sophisticated car company, it is something rare and exciting, indeed a revolutionary idea holding true to an antique concept none of us are even old enough to remember: The American Dream.

- A.B. April 9, 2017

These were my thoughts after reading the attached article so wanted to share

TBH, these back and forth's about Tesla's valuation from the believers and non-believers are becoming a bit repetitive and uninspiring. On the part of believers, I find it naive to say some idealism, be it environmentalism or American dream, is the driving force of the skyrocketing valuation of TSLA. Nothing in the human history was accomplished through idealism. Idealism was a byproduct of human advancement. Human advancement is a product of everyday toil of the humanity as large. It just happened that we are at the dawn of new era not because Tesla single handedly brought the era upon us but because we as humanity have advanced to the era. Tesla seized upon the opportunity and will be rewarded handsomely. That's all.

 

[dw4ngg]

I'm personally hoping for a lower open tmrw so I can buy a couple earnings play OTM calls... maybe at $310

 

[Papafox]

In anticipation of Monday's trading, some discussion of TSLA's connection to macro movements is in order. We hear contradictory statements regarding relation to macros in these threads. Sometimes we hear (and see) that TSLA trading is relatively unaffected by macros, and sometimes we hear (and see) that TSLA is affected significantly by macro changes, as is fitting for a high beta stock. What I wish to do is start a discussion about what situations cause TSLA to respond to macros (sometimes in a big way), and which situations don't.

As a general rule, TSLA follows the broader markets far less than other stocks. This is both good and bad. It is good because if there's good news for TSLA, the stock is going to rise regardless of the macros having a good or bad day. TSLA's disregard for macros in certain situation is also bad. When the broader markets are having a highly positive day, TSLA often flounders because traders regard it as a stock that does not reliably follow the macros and they move money out of TSLA for the day and into more reliable stocks for taking advantage of the broader market climb. In the Daily TSLA Trading Charts thread I like to say regarding macros that TSLA does best when the porridge is not too hot, not too cold, but just right. In other words, macros having a mixed day is an excellent environment for TSLA.

So, why does TSLA sometimes disregard a down day for the macros? First, TSLA news rules, macros are secondary. Why? Tesla as a company is less affected by the general economy than most stocks because Tesla's challenge for the next few years is executing on its plan, not selling its products (as with most other companies). If Tesla can execute, buyers for its products will be there. It's all about execution! That said, should there be a big correction in the market, it would affect TSLA because other stocks would suddenly be offering far more upside potential and better P/E ratios than before, and the market is a competitive place for investor dollars. On the other hand, few stocks offer the growth potential as TSLA, and for this reason it can shake off macro corrections quicker than many other stocks.

When do macros cause TSLA to go down? I would say macros have their greatest downward pull when there are concerns about the trajectory of TSLA. When there is ambiguity about the direction TSLA is going to head, macros matter. For example, when TSLA investors were waiting for word on the SolarCity merger, the stock was suffering from a negative underlying sentiment and was very vulnerable to downward macros. On the other hand, today we see positive underlying sentiment for TSLA as Model 3 production approaches. When TSLA flushes out the shorts some day and is much higher, it will be susceptible to negative macros again because of fears the negative macros will begin the inevitable correction after a big run up. To a lesser extent, if there's no news for some time and TSLA has been trading sideways, negative macros can bring the stock price down because, once again, macros are influencing an ambiguous situation.

Your thoughts appreciated.

 

[kenliles]

Wireless energy transmission from a satellite? Like how Nikola Tesla did


TBH, these back and forth's about Tesla's valuation from the believers and non-believers are becoming a bit repetitive and uninspiring. On the part of believers, I find it naive to say some idealism, be it environmentalism or American dream, is the driving force of the skyrocketing valuation of TSLA. Nothing in the human history was accomplished through idealism. Idealism was a byproduct of human advancement. Human advancement is a product of everyday toil of the humanity as large. It just happened that we are at the dawn of new era not because Tesla single handedly brought the era upon us but because we as humanity have advanced to the era. Tesla seized upon the opportunity and will be rewarded handsomely. That's all.

No-
Survival is produced from everyday toil.
Advancement is produced ONLY from aspirational idealism
And that drives the wealth of humanity, not the other way around
Not that it matters, but I'm in total disagreement
No-

 

[doctoxics]

One macro to consider is that the market is overbought. Not very many stocks look attractive. TSLA screams future value in so many areas, including energy, a Wall Streat favorite. Tech growth stocks are having quite a run. I expect the run to continue for some time before the crash that is inevitable under current policies.

 

[kenliles]

When do macros cause TSLA to go down? I would say macros have their greatest downward pull when there are concerns about the trajectory of TSLA. When there is ambiguity about the direction TSLA is going to head, macros matter. For example, when TSLA investors were waiting for word on the SolarCity merger, the stock was suffering from a negative underlying sentiment and was very vulnerable to downward macros. On the other hand, today we see positive underlying sentiment for TSLA as Model 3 production approaches. When TSLA flushes out the shorts some day and is much higher, it will be susceptible to negative macros again because of fears the negative macros will begin the inevitable correction after a big run up. To a lesser extent, if there's no news for some time and TSLA has been trading sideways, negative macros can bring the stock price down because, once again, macros are influencing an ambiguous situation.

Your thoughts appreciated.

Excellent analysis Papafox. In short my thoughts are
Tesla being a disruptive play- valuation based on a forward belief of disruption that can be accomplished (present value of future risk).
Every SP purchase must have a belief that future valuation will be higher than current.
Macro events should be lenzed through that prism.
Key to those would be effects on capital availability, market appetite and ability to consume.

As long as those hold firm, TSLA should weather and even excel. But his pits some pressure on, as they produce products that take capital to both produce and purchase (as opposed to an iPhone for example)

In a 2008 type recession, ALL belief systems are jeapordized and a TSLA will see a disproportional loss (and subsequent recovery on survival).

But in market segment transformation macros, Tesla will do very well in relation.

 

[dc_h]

TBH, these back and forth's about Tesla's valuation from the believers and non-believers are becoming a bit repetitive and uninspiring. On the part of believers, I find it naive to say some idealism, be it environmentalism or American dream, is the driving force of the skyrocketing valuation of TSLA. Nothing in the human history was accomplished through idealism. Idealism was a byproduct of human advancement. Human advancement is a product of everyday toil of the humanity as large. It just happened that we are at the dawn of new era not because Tesla single handedly brought the era upon us but because we as humanity have advanced to the era. Tesla seized upon the opportunity and will be rewarded handsomely. That's all.

Man does not live on bread alone.

Some here may define identifying key life threatening issues facing humanity and creating companies from scratch against all probabilities of success to be idealistic, if not downright foolish\crazy. You see it as a simple response to supply and demand. I'm sort of in camp 1, but hard work and intelligence is what makes the idealism work.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA maybe by 9 pm EST I'll post several charts putting in perspective where $TSLA stands in relation to market and other winning stocks
I ended up posting last series of charts under long term fundamentals thread by mistake
As Papafox correctly opines it's important to understand the macro and relationships to how TSLA trades

 

[1kEE]

Index futures up slightly, oil up... looks good so far.