Mike Smith
Active Member
I'm guessing the shorts will do all they can to close as far from the high as possible in an attempt to signal a reversal.
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I agree! Anybody that sells TSLA to buy a M3 (or anything) will have a very expensive M3!I know the feeling. Even my wife who is VERY financially consertive is saying to leave the TSLA stock where it's at and just borrow the money for her Model 3.
I agree! Anybody that sells TSLA to buy a M3 (or anything) will have a very expensive M3!
385 still pretty nice. Wonder what that means for things like Option sniper's thoughts. We passed 389 intraday...
So... on an ATH day, I am fearful for the next two weeks. The main issue is that we aren't getting the VINs to support the idea that Tesla is in high volume production. They may be building cars with robots, but we haven't seen 4xx+ VINs. Which means they may miss September guidance. Of course, it is possible that they ramp to 1000/wk in the last week, but the likelihood now is that they miss September's 1,500 vehicle guidance. But of course, what really matters is whether or not the vehicle is truly in mass production and if they are truly in high volume production. And whether it is in September or October, that doesn't matter much in the medium term. But in the short term, I don't know we have the evidence to support staying at or above ATH.
So until we get some, be careful out there.
Clearly, Model 3's are getting delivered in more numbers and we are starting to see sightings that indicate a much wider distribution than initially thought. Interestingly enough, it isn't just deliveries to California. I am not sure what that means, but it seems to me pretty bullish that they are delivering Model 3's outside of California at this early stage.
Also, FOMC meeting is tomorrow and Wednesday so extra volatility is on the agenda.
So... on an ATH day, I am fearful for the next two weeks. The main issue is that we aren't getting the VINs to support the idea that Tesla is in high volume production. They may be building cars with robots, but we haven't seen 4xx+ VINs. Which means they may miss September guidance. Of course, it is possible that they ramp to 1000/wk in the last week, but the likelihood now is that they miss September's 1,500 vehicle guidance. But of course, what really matters is whether or not the vehicle is truly in mass production and if they are truly in high volume production. And whether it is in September or October, that doesn't matter much in the medium term. But in the short term, I don't know we have the evidence to support staying at or above ATH.
So until we get some, be careful out there.
Clearly, Model 3's are getting delivered in more numbers and we are starting to see sightings that indicate a much wider distribution than initially thought. Interestingly enough, it isn't just deliveries to California. I am not sure what that means, but it seems to me pretty bullish that they are delivering Model 3's outside of California at this early stage.
Also, FOMC meeting is tomorrow and Wednesday so extra volatility is on the agenda.
Of interest: an employee related person I speak to was told to expect delivery end-september, and does not yet have a VIN. Unsure what that means, exactly.On that note .... VIN 217 has been reported. Pictures of production Model 3s (post 1652).
Still in the toughest part of the S ramp. Will be nice when we are seeing VINs in the thousands.
So... on an ATH day, I am fearful for the next two weeks. The main issue is that we aren't getting the VINs to support the idea that Tesla is in high volume production. They may be building cars with robots, but we haven't seen 4xx+ VINs. Which means they may miss September guidance. Of course, it is possible that they ramp to 1000/wk in the last week, but the likelihood now is that they miss September's 1,500 vehicle guidance. But of course, what really matters is whether or not the vehicle is truly in mass production and if they are truly in high volume production. And whether it is in September or October, that doesn't matter much in the medium term. But in the short term, I don't know we have the evidence to support staying at or above ATH.
So until we get some, be careful out there.
Clearly, Model 3's are getting delivered in more numbers and we are starting to see sightings that indicate a much wider distribution than initially thought. Interestingly enough, it isn't just deliveries to California. I am not sure what that means, but it seems to me pretty bullish that they are delivering Model 3's outside of California at this early stage.
Also, FOMC meeting is tomorrow and Wednesday so extra volatility is on the agenda.
Build it first, then issue VIN?Of interest: an employee related person I speak to was told to expect delivery end-september, and does not yet have a VIN. Unsure what that means, exactly.
To add to this, if Model X and S deliveries are greater than they were in Q1 this year, this should also be received as a good sign and mitigate any delivery "misses" on Model 3. Basically proving cannibalization concerns on S & X were moot.We definitely need to keep an eye on this, but it worth keeping couple of things in mind:
- The guidance was about production, not deliveries, so observing (or not) certain VINs in the wild is a lagging indicator. For a heavily back loaded production/deliveries an absence of certain VINs at this time is not that alarming.
- I do not believe that market will have a fit for production turning out to be less than 1500 cars. I think producing several hundred cars with Tesla assurances on accelerating ramp will be sufficient.
or to keep the VIN's as secret as possible. a watched pot never boils.Build it first, then issue VIN?