2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[KLC13]

I don't think the market will care much (or not for long) if they slightly miss guidance, but any good news about Model 3 being imminent will have a definite positive effect on the stock.

Typically market has shrugged off past guidance misses. However it was always production problems keeping Tesla from meeting guidance, but this quarter is probably the first one when Tesla transitions from production constraint to demand constraint (for S&X). With the delivery numbers, Q2 financials and M3 ramp coming up, I'm not sure how the stock will respond. I just keep reminding myself I'm in it for the long haul and enjoy the ride...

 

[brian45011]

" The Revolving Aggregation Credit Facility Amendment extended the availability period of draws under the Revolving Aggregation Credit Facility to December 31, 2018, and extended the maturity date to December 31, 2019. In addition, the Revolving Aggregation Credit Facility Amendment provides for a Company-requested decrease in the total lender commitments under the Revolving Aggregation Credit Facility to $600 million."

Tesla - Current Report

Prior commitments were $760 million.

 

[TradingInvest]

or... in a world where everyone likes to hear what they want to hear... Tamberrino is to Barron as CNN is to Fox News.

It's not easy to be wrong on every call, Tamberrino is pretty close. You can check his past record. More importantly, his reasoning doesn't make sense. On the other hand, Ron Baron's investment approach makes perfect sense: find out the big trend in the long term, then pick the leader in that trend, buy and hold.

 

[Tslynk67]

His Tweets as of late don't indicate that he's especially stressed at this time. Just sayin'.

He's always chilled on Twitter - the antithesis of Trump - not sure it indicates much...

Somewhat OT, but my Apple Stocks app hasn't updated the last few days, anyone else got this issue? I like to use it to view general market status, a bit annoying not having it.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Same here,

I do not know what to do about it. The charts update fine.

 

[PaulusdB]

Apple knows. Seems to be connected to stock market data in Numbers app or the Yahoo service the Stocks app uses.

https://discussions.apple.com/thread/7997920

 

[Tslynk67]

Apple knows. Seems to be connected to stock market data in Numbers app or the Yahoo service the Stocks app uses.

https://discussions.apple.com/thread/7997920

Thanks. I Googled several times, but didn't spot anything. Ok, it will resolve when it is resolved... cheers

 

[1kEE]

Buy, continue buying every month with extra cash and hold for about 9-10 years, then sell (most? all?) and buy a house. If my spreadsheet is correct, I should have around 2-3 million if tesla ends up being as big as appl is today, which is way more than enough. The purpose of my question was that I was seeking a way to entirely avoid a margin call no matter what happens to the SP. Maybe I've been listening to doomsday prophesies for too long, but I've arrived at the point where I believe we will have a major market crash within the next few years, certain within 10.

Consider 1 or 2 year options (LEAPS) with a strike price considerably below the current stock price (DITM, Deep In The Money) as an alternative to margin. The effective interest rate is cheaper than margin interest. Sell them and buy later dated options at about the halfway to expiry time frame, if you want to continue holding. If you want to hold stock on margin, Integrated Brokers seems to have the lowest interest rate at 2.5% for larger accounts.

Using long term options for leverage will entirely eliminate the chances of a margin call. Long calls limit the downside potential and cushion the fall as they go from DITM to Near The Money to Out Of The Money (delta, the amount of option value movement per dollar stock price movement approaches 1 for DITM and approaches 0 for FOTM). Downside is if stock price plummets and stays low for a long period of time, they just go to 0. No margin calls, no loosing more than you invested, just a 0. Hopefully you have more cash to buy at that point in time.

Another suggestion.... maintain relatively low leverage levels at times of high stock price and market valuation (like right now). Increase leverage near stock and/or market bottoms. Avoid excessive leverage at high valuation levels unless your income level is large enough to cope with your account getting close to wiped out.

 

[MitchJi]

I could be wrong here, but I'm expecting the reveal to be totally separate from the production ramp, with separate effects on the stock. With the reveal, we get to see the finished product but nothing in significant volume for several months, until they start selling M3 to the public. Until then, I don't believe there will be a ramp effect on the share price. Even if earlier than expected, that's likely October at the earliest.

I believe that they won't reveal it until they have started production.

 

[racer26]

On the train of thought about the 'news on sunday' including some cars already delivered, that interior shot of a Model 3 from a few days ago that lead to estimating range of the 75kWh Model 3 at >300mi came about because of an employee who had the car who wasn't part of the launch team, and didn't seem to be required to be nearly as secretive about it as others we've seen. Perhaps there are indeed some legs to this notion of some cars already delivered?

Any of our VIN tracking gurus have anything to say about what we think 2Q17 deliveries look like? Last I looked at the MS VIN tracker sheet it looked to me like we were on track for about 15k MS in 2Q17, and a 60/40 split as in previous quarters would suggest we were on target for a 25k quarter. My honest belief is that there has been basically no news at all about any kind of break in production or slow downs so a full quarter of running the line at business as usual speeds should produce this many.

 

[MitchJi]

For the experienced short term option traders, what would be the better call options to use for a short term move like this, assuming roughly a 10% rise over a few days? July 28 or Aug 4, $360 strike? Those look pretty good to me but I'm not sure. July 28 may be cutting it too close. No sense going too far out since you will be paying a lot for time premium you don't plan to use. I'm guessing a rise to approximately $400 but that obviously depends upon what happens to the stock prior to the announcement.

The Q2 ER will probably be in the first two weeks of August.

 

[MitchJi]

He's always chilled on Twitter - the antithesis of Trump - not sure it indicates much...

Somewhat OT, but my Apple Stocks app hasn't updated the last few days, anyone else got this issue? I like to use it to view general market status, a bit annoying not having it.

I prefer Yahoo Finance.

Thanks. I Googled several times, but didn't spot anything. Ok, it will resolve when it is resolved... cheers.

I just tried Yahoo finance on my iPad and it's working. I checked stocks and yahoo finance on my iPhone. Both working via wifi. If it's not working via cellular I'd check the settings.

 

[EinSV]

On the train of thought about the 'news on sunday' including some cars already delivered, that interior shot of a Model 3 from a few days ago that lead to estimating range of the 75kWh Model 3 at >300mi came about because of an employee who had the car who wasn't part of the launch team, and didn't seem to be required to be nearly as secretive about it as others we've seen. Perhaps there are indeed some legs to this notion of some cars already delivered?

Any of our VIN tracking gurus have anything to say about what we think 2Q17 deliveries look like? Last I looked at the MS VIN tracker sheet it looked to me like we were on track for about 15k MS in 2Q17, and a 60/40 split as in previous quarters would suggest we were on target for a 25k quarter. My honest belief is that there has been basically no news at all about any kind of break in production or slow downs so a full quarter of running the line at business as usual speeds should produce this many.

Racer, in the Q2 delivery thread the votes are currently pretty evenly divided between the "beat" and "meet" camps, with a few people voting lower end of guidance (under 23K) or miss. Q2 2017 Delivery Estimates I am very squarely in the beat camp.

 

[Tslynk67]

I prefer Yahoo Finance.

Sure - I use StocksTracker as it updates in real-time on my Apple Watch, but the Apple app is very convenient.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Bought some at open. I think we'll close above 370. But if we drop below 360, I'll buy more.

 

[elasalle]

Elon said their will be a gift for those who stood in queues at stores to reserve Model 3's. Perhaps it will be Signature White.

I thought the letter with Model 3 sketches and thank you was the gift. Most of folks I know who reserved it got one. I did not even get that ... still waiting
..However .. if SP keeps going up I don't even need the gift

 

[DurandalAI]

Bought some at open. I think we'll close above 370. But if we drop below 360, I'll buy more.

Same here, added another pebble to my pile since it was pay day. lol.

 

[madodel]

Note that David Tamberrino is ranked #4432 out of 4600 on Tipranks. Almost every call he makes is wrong and by now everyone knows it. His call has had no effect in the pre-market. Extremely embarrassing for Goldman Sachs, being this wrong (and ingnored) on a high profile name like Tesla.

Is he someone's son-in-law? Or just a follower of the Smeagel school of investing by psychotic delusions?

 

[geneclean55]

View attachment 233349

This must be good news. Production line is probably ready/more ready than analysts assumed.

 

[MitchJi]

Sure - I use StocksTracker as it updates in real-time on my Apple Watch, but the Apple app is very convenient.

Yahoo finance is equally convenient IMO.

Check my earlier (edited) post.