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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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I understand that Tesla usually trades opposite of oil. But i dont get why. Wouldnt higher oil prices mean more expensive gas? I guess it could mean higher dollar value, which can be bad for an auto exporter like Tesla. But long term, lower cafe standards and higher oil prices should help drive people to Solar/EVs.

IMO, currently TSLA's demand does not rely as much on people's desire to save money on gas, but their desire to not use gas, so the dependence on oil price is not significant. OTOH, for Tesla's competition, who are selling cheaper and shorter range cars, their demand depends more on gas price, because of the cheaper price range. Oil price goes up, the other guys sell more EV, it doesn't necessarily hurt Tesla's demand, but the market for ZEV credit goes down. Also on longer term there may be more risk to Tesla, the more EV the other guys sell, more experience they gain and they may catch up to Tesla quicker; there will also be more motivation for someone to build charging infrastructure to support them, which diminishes the advantage of Tesla's supercharging network.
 
IMO, currently TSLA's demand does not rely as much on people's desire to save money on gas, but their desire to not use gas, so the dependence on oil price is not significant. OTOH, for Tesla's competition, who are selling cheaper and shorter range cars, their demand depends more on gas price, because of the cheaper price range. Oil price goes up, the other guys sell more EV, it doesn't necessarily hurt Tesla's demand, but the market for ZEV credit goes down. Also on longer term there may be more risk to Tesla, the more EV the other guys sell, more experience they gain and they may catch up to Tesla quicker; there will also be more motivation for someone to build charging infrastructure to support them, which diminishes the advantage of Tesla's supercharging network.

You are kind of focusing on buying "new" cars. Bunch of people out there who cannot even buy new vehicles are buying up used Leafs, Volts and others now - at large discounted prices from new. They want the same thing. To stop using gasoline and participating in green activities. In fact, I know that some used Volts had horrible mpg because the fleet buys from GE back in 2012 (3-year leases) came off lease with 38 mpg lifetime numbers and now, actual green buyers are charging them nightly, "going green" and not buying gasoline most of the time - but they are doing it at a price under $10k for some buyers. Up in Quebec, some dealers import used Volts in from the USA to be sold as used to a very interested buying public. People want to get electric cars - not all of them can afford new. And many who do buy electric cars as-new may not be making much of an impact if they are not commuting daily and "offsetting" their original gas use.

My biggest issue with non-Tesla dealers/builders is this. Their dealers really do not want to see EVs sold. Due to the impact on service revenues, longer sales cycle talking to buyers and the more "complicated" technology they need to understand. Most dealerships simply want their salespeople to give a buyer a quick ride around the block, poke around the center console for the features there (radio, etc) and then send them off to F&I to talk-up extended warranty and more. If the Big-3 + BMW and VW can fix their franchise models and get dealers "involved" - then they may gain traction in the EV space. Clearly, buyers are not rushing into Big-3 dealerships to buy EVs except maybe in California. If consumers demand EVs and are not talked-out-of-it by their dealer, maybe they'd sell more.

Tesla has "simple" sales locations (clean white/red walls, simple furniture) while today's big dealers have almost palatial dealerships that cost money to run (service revenues, keep the lights on). There are huge Mercedes dealerships near me that must cost 5-million to construct. Why do they need to look like a casino is inside?
 
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I mean this as politely as possible, but you realize this platform isn't StockTwits, right? You don't need to start every post with $TSLA. We're on a Tesla board--we know you're probably talking about Tesla stock. ;)

I assumed most people realized that these types of posts are cut and pastes from TrendTrader007 twitter posts. The guy is clearly a smart cookie when you read some of his longer posts, but the shorter $TSLA style posts are pumping , possibly with the hope that bots pick up the snippets on here and on Twitter. Not a bad strategy if it works.
 
Seeing a potential bull flag forming over the past few days. Very similar to the one formed last week. We are at ATH so volatility is understandably higher than last week therefore the flag is not as tight as last week. Last time it was delivery triggering a move to the upside. With earnings still a month away, what could trigger the next?


Well many kind of goods news can do the trick : big investor buying a lot of TSLA, Elon Musk announcing a new product (even though few chances in the next few weeks), Good news about M3 (big shipment of part of M3 for example)...

But realistically I think until earnings, TSLA is going to be extremely volatile, probably oscillating between 298 and 310. For the next few weeks.
 
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