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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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We've been married almost 14 years. From the outset she volunteered to change my diapers. (Then not needed; now a bit on long trips.) Then I found out she could cook. (She didn't know she could, but she can taste ingredients in the wildest mixtures and repeat in even better ratios.) She also got an A (with minimal help from me) in a college survey course in chemistry covering more ground in one semester than the two semester course I took at MIT 50 years earlier. She's stunning, and really frightening. Anytime she hears me talk about our holdings in TSLA reaching a million dollars she smile's wickedly, "then I'll have a baby." I understand the mating game from a whole new perspective; his last words: "it's like being a male spider." The Thai have a word that sounds like "krangjai," fearful respect.

Is there a Thai store someplace where a guy could get one of those?
 
Is there a Thai store someplace where a guy could get one of those?

Due diligence, my dear friend, due diligence. Probably almost anywhere in Thailand. The little woman (4' 10") does have flaws, she has poor distance vision, probably from planting garlic in the fields as a child to help her "hill tribe" parents. She misjudged my age by ten years to the good when we first met.

The whole family is remarkable. One of her cousins just got her MBA recently, a tall ravishing type who sucked on a lollypop the whole time her boyfriend regaled us at dinner. I over-estimated him and under-estimated her. Another cousin, a sister I believe (they all look alike to me), at 17 won the Chiang Rai Miss Buddha Contest a few years ago. After a failed marriage met someone else who is the general of a general's son in Myanmar. They now have two children, each with their own nanny. Pictures of their wedding at the general's compound had a square that looked the size of Tiananmen Square! Her mother and other relatives now have new houses which are much more liveable.

Good luck in your hunt, perhaps you too can make every mistake in the world, yet be your happiest in old age. I must have been a remarkably, wise, virtuous, and nobly generous worm in an earlier life.

I lied to TT007 earlier. The secret is not staying young, even just young at heart, it is like the stock market. Kismet, my friend, Kismet. Though the flesh is weak and failing much, the Force is strong, the lust for words that is.
 
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Each time I see an article about other manufactures making electric cars, and how they may best Tesla's cars, etc... I never see mention of how they are going to scale battery supplies. I very much would like to see good competition but, so far, it all seems like vaporware to me.

Also, hoping Elon does tweet when Model 3 SN1 is complete. Could still happen today. :)

I think this cartoon does a pretty good job characterizing why ICE manufacturers aren't meaningfully rushing to beat Tesla...they don't have to. They only have to come in second or third, and there'll still be plenty of market for them whilst everyone else gets eaten.

2010-04-28-Bear-Joke.gif
 
For those who haven't seen this clip of South Australia's premier Jay Weatherill giving a public smack-down to Australia's Federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg, I would really encourage you to find the 3 minutes it takes to watch it. Jay Weatherill is a friggin' stud. Can you imagine the governers of either California, Oregon, or Washington giving a similar verbal beating to the head of any of the current or previous administration energy policy managers.........or better yet, to Mitch McConnell over his coal visions? I would watch that over and over until my TV broke. While we have given plenty of much deserved credit on this board to Elon and Mike Cannon-Brookes for the South Australia project, I think it is imperative that we remind ourselves and others just how far Jay Weatherill had to stick his neck out to help make this happen in the fossil fuel friendly climate of Australia (similar to the US). Rock On Jay! Here is the link:

Jay Weatherill gives Josh Frydenberg a serve at bizarre media conference – video
Jay weatherill for PM!
 
So they had 4,650 in transit at end of Q1 and 3,500 in transit at end of Q2. They produced 3000 more cars then delivered in Q2. Where did the 4,000 cars go? 4k of show models, test drive cars and loaners? that seems high.
I believe it. Service centers are needing 10-20 loaners, stores are needing 4-8 cars minimum... 10 * 330 and you're already at 3300...

Although I went to a Tesla store in Decatur GA about a month ago and the lot was full of Infiniti SUVs. They said they were all loaners. I guess they were leasing them. So maybe this is just the cost of not having dealerships... still seems high.
Still feels roughly right to me.
 
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My expecation for the distant future is it'll be both.
Consider that there is a big difference between the transmission cost in a deep rural area (sky high) and in a big city (quite low). In Australia, we're already seeing the most rural areas removed from the grid. Areas the grid operator *doesn't want* are going to get their own batteries and solar and wind without transmission. Meanwhile, apartments in city centers can't be self-sufficient.

We'll end up with some sort of equilibrium with the grid extending out the economically reasonable amount with grid-scale storage, and then giving way to individual home batteries somewhere between the first-ring rowhouse suburbs and the exurbs. Not sure exactly where.
 
Many people are still of the 'I must touch and feel before I buy' species, and rightly so. Example: I'm of the very strong opinion that you should always try the Speedos on to know you shouldn't buy them.
I ordered my Speedos online without trying them on first... and apparently they look good on me, at least according to my girlfriend... :cool:;)

That said, I did check out the car in person before buying it, so you have a point.
 
I think a GF in France looks possible. There's momentum with the French government removing all ICE from roads by 2040, and Tesla's deal with the French energy utility company Neoen in SA.

Rob Stark's Favorite Destinations for European Gigafactory.

50) Belarus
51) Crimea
52) Kosovo
53) France
54) Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
55) Moldova
56) Kaliningrad
 
Just read this on one of Germans biggest weekly news magazines´ web site, pretty amazing statement if true - sounds more like something people around TMC might have made up in a bullish fantasy :). Might be taken out of context to turn it into a good headline, but still...

Düstere Prognose: Merkel sieht schwarz für deutsche Autoindustrie - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Wirtschaft

Der Spiegel said:
Chancellor Angela Merkel (Chrstian Democratic Party) doesn´t expect the the German car industry to have a good chance of survival. At the European Council meeting at the end of June she painted the future of Germany´s most important industry which employs about a million people in dark colors. Everybody knew that the car industry in today´s form wouldn´t survive, Merkel stated according to participants in the circle of the other heads of state.

Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) räumt der deutschen Automobilindustrie offenbar keine guten Überlebenschancen ein. Beim Europäischen Rat Ende Juni malte sie nach Informationen des SPIEGEL die Zukunftsaussichten von Deutschlands wichtigstem Industriezweig mit rund einer Million Beschäftigten in düsteren Farben. Jeder wisse, dass die Autoindustrie in ihrer heutigen Form nicht überleben werde, erklärte Merkel nach Angaben von Teilnehmern im Kreis der übrigen Staats- und Regierungschefs.
 
This old quote belongs here:

DeLorean was sharply critical of the direction GM had taken by the start of the 1970s, saying "There's no forward response at General Motors to what the public wants today."[20] He also objected to the idea of using rebates to sell cars on the grounds that "A car should make people's eyes light up when they step into the showroom. Rebates are merely a way of convincing customers to buy bland cars they're not interested in."

As it speaks to corporate change time constants.
 
I respectfully disagree with your disagreement! I think we are saying the same thing in a different way. The only reason I say that is because 40% market share means the competitors average 9% at most. Do you expect BMW, MB and Audi to go to 0% sometime soon? This wont happen because they will start discounting heavily before that happens. The reason S is so high is because they have dragged people up from lower levels and that will change with the 3. Some buyers went from a Prius or Camry to an S, and will go to a 3 in the future. Its not a knock on the S, its actually the opposite. Such an inspiring car that people take out a second mortgage or got forbid they skip the $7 lattes to get one.

Our respectful disagreement (besides heralding a welcome return to forum decorum :)) seems to boil down to which of two likely effects proves more significant. I'll agree that BMW, MB and Audi MS competitors won't go to 0% if you'll agree there is no reason they could not go to 7 or 8% as Tesla penetrates the awareness of non EV luxury car customers! That is all that's needed to keep MS/MX growth going as M3 wave comes to shore. I'd posit that you are right that Eco and EV early adopters will stop 'stretching' to get MS once reasonably optioned M3 are available. But...I'll virtually bet you this boost effect to MS/MX sales will not be missed as the FAR larger new car buying public becomes much more aware of Tesla brand and EV choices. The number of 'Hey, check out the acceleration of my new Tesla' drives are going to rise steeply for the next 2 - 3 years. Won't Volvo's luxury and safety oriented customers ready for a new car in that class not consider MS/MX now that Volvo has declared they are abandoning ICE over next few years? Only time will tell if the push ahead effects of M3 will outweigh the pull back ones. I just doubt that high end ICE customers of Volvo, Audi, etc. will mostly decide to get stuck for years with the last production runs of cars with a drivetrain these companies have declared they now view as obsolete.
 
I ordered my Speedos online without trying them on first... and apparently they look good on me, at least according to my girlfriend... :cool:;)

That said, I did check out the car in person before buying it, so you have a point.

Will never be able to get that picture or if my head...

Elon already stated that people will be able to see the model 3 in person and test drive them in the stores. If they have 400,000+ reservations I'm sure a good third will take the car based on what they have already seen. So just between now and 133,333 delivered they need to deliver 330 showroom models and 660 or 990 test drive vehicles per quarter so that they can always have been newest best features. This is not rocket surgery.
 
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