2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[vgrinshpun]

Googenheim just initiated Tesla as a buy. Henceforth the buying premarket.

Do you have a link?

 

[flankspeed8]

Tesla is not about making money, except insofar as money is required to achieve its goals. Elon does not care in the slightest about pumping the SP. Elon cares about changing the world, and leaving his legacy as the man that got humanity to take sustainable energy in all its forms seriously and stop killing ourselves with our addiction to fossil fuels.

Could not disagree more. As the CEO of a publicly traded company he darn well better care about profits for his shareholders and an increasing SP. Certainly his BOD better. You can make the argument that he has longer term goals than many of the analysts do. Clearly though, the end of quarter shenanigans of rushing out cars, stealth discounts and demand levers shows that he is worried about the share prices or we would not be gearing for the end of quarter panic 4 times a year. If that was not the case, there would be no prioritization which cars to ship at EOQ and there would be no care wether it was a MS60 or P100D right...after all he just wants to save the world. I laud EM's accomplishments and his contributions to our world. But if Tesla is not about making money they never should have gone public. Certainly his investors expect it as evidence by the panic on this board when we have some wide swings. I am invested in Tesla because in the end, I DO expect to make money and I want a CEO who wants to make ME money too!

 

[Hogfighter]

Unfortunately I give FF 0% chance of success. They are trying to hit a home run their first time at bat.....when it's practically impossible to just get on first base. Walk before you run, fellas.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Timing matters. If Tesla hit majority of self-imposed goals in the last 18 months, I'd be having 2 new Tesla's parked in front of the house, instead of new Mazda 5 and desperately trying to repair 13 year old Porsche.

Lots of people here make a mistake and assume that everyone is a long term investor that is unaffected with temporary fluctuations of the SP. Not everyone's situation is the same.

There's no way to know how TSLA would have moved in the past 18 months even if they had met all their goals. During the China stock market panic TSLA dropped substantially despite no direct impact on the company's financials. Even companies that return good results quarter after quarter do not rise in price predictably. MBLY has had consistently good earnings reports, but its shares remain mired at a price range somewhat above IPO.

As a general rule of thumb, I tell people not to plan or have expectations of a higher standard of living based on near-term stock price gains. Honestly, I do not think that betting on TSLA stock is a good idea to replace a car that is in desperate need of repair.

Also, there was another comment that we should be used to Tesla missing out estimates. I disagree. While I understand it now, and didn't get burned last couple of times, it takes time to truly internalize Tesla's behavior.

There are investors new to Tesla every day, and they wouldn't know what they're getting into. Out of respectable companies, Tesla is unique in its disdain to WS norms, and that has real life consequences for some investors out there. I agree that even after big drops, investors with the nerve to hold, and in stock only, will likely get whole and make money. This is just a subset of investors though. Most everyone is trained that where there is a smoke, there is a fire, and missing out on estimates looks a lot like a smoke. So, I can understand someone panic out and exit, and all sorts of other wrong behaviors...

It is the responsibility of investors to research the companies they invest in. If people are blindly buying shares just because they saw something on the news on Twitter, I can't help them. I bought shares knowing that Tesla had a substantial chance of going under, but it was money that I could afford to lose. Nobody should be buying individual shares of stock if they can't afford the risk! Some people I know have lost hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars on companies that cratered unexpectedly. Most everyone should NOT be buying any individual shares at all. I actually discourage most people from buying any shares of TSLA because the average person cannot handle the price swings.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Could not disagree more. As the CEO of a publicly traded company he darn well better care about profits for his shareholders and an increasing SP. Certainly his BOD better. You can make the argument that he has longer term goals than many of the analysts do. Clearly though, the end of quarter shenanigans of rushing out cars, stealth discounts and demand levers shows that he is worried about the share prices or we would not be gearing for the end of quarter panic 4 times a year. If that was not the case, there would be no prioritization which cars to ship at EOQ and there would be no care wether it was a MS60 or P100D right...after all he just wants to save the world. I laud EM's accomplishments and his contributions to our world. But if Tesla is not about making money they never should have gone public. Certainly his investors expect it as evidence by the panic on this board when we have some wide swings. I am invested in Tesla because in the end, I DO expect to make money and I want a CEO who wants to make ME money too!

I think you misunderstand the point of him not caring about making money. He does, he plans to use his TSLA holdings to finance his Mars colonization plans and has said as much.

What he doesn't care is maximizing short term profits at the cost of long term plans. He will sacrifice short term for the higher return further out and has done so many times. He doesn't care if TSLA is profitable in Q3, Q4, Q1 etc. He cares that the cashflow is there to reinvest into the growth to reach his end goals of saving humanity. To do that he needs to generate cash so yes he does care about profits, but they are not a goal itself. He games the quarters because Wall str needs it and he needs the Wall str still to get investments. Once TSLA has enough growth momentum to tell Wall str to take a hike for future raises he'll stop this catering and optimize for everything else.

But he doesn't care about making the maximum profit Q-over-Q. He cares about making maximum effect and impact to the world down the line and to do that he needs leverage (profits / cashflow) in the interim.

 

[Hogfighter]

Could not disagree more. As the CEO of a publicly traded company he darn well better care about profits for his shareholders and an increasing SP. Certainly his BOD better. You can make the argument that he has longer term goals than many of the analysts do. Clearly though, the end of quarter shenanigans of rushing out cars, stealth discounts and demand levers shows that he is worried about the share prices or we would not be gearing for the end of quarter panic 4 times a year. If that was not the case, there would be no prioritization which cars to ship at EOQ and there would be no care wether it was a MS60 or P100D right...after all he just wants to save the world. I laud EM's accomplishments and his contributions to our world. But if Tesla is not about making money they never should have gone public. Certainly his investors expect it as evidence by the panic on this board when we have some wide swings. I am invested in Tesla because in the end, I DO expect to make money and I want a CEO who wants to make ME money too!

It's not a binary situation. He's intelligent enough to know that he has to throw investors a bone every now and then (3q2016), but he certainly is not focused solely on maximizing profits....as most CEOs do. It would be difficult to argue that the past 4 years has been about profits. It's a balancing act in his mind, which he has inferred a number of times.

Edit: what Mario said.

 

[neroden]

If Tesla misses their predicted deliveries in 2018 by the same percentage as this year they'll deliver 476,438 cars.

And if they miss their target for 2017 by the same percentage they'll deliver 95,000 Model 3 in 2017. Honestly I'm not expecting that, but I'd be surprised to see fewer then 20,000.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Unfortunately I give FF 0% chance of success. They are trying to hit a home run their first time at bat.....when it's practically impossible to just get on first base. Walk before you run, fellas.

 

[mrdoubleb]

View attachment 209065

To me FF is the scam many claimed Tesla to be back in the day (and some still do today).

 

[neroden]

It's just not that simple, the cells I'm working with have less than half the energy density of Tesla's cells (so of you stick them in a Tesla it would get less than half the range of a normal Tesla), this sacrifice had to be made in order to get the high continuous discharge rate.
Designing a battery is often compared to balancing the rocket equation, increasing one parameter requires a sacrifice in another. The highest charge rate I've seen demonstrated for Tesla cells is 1.7C, 350kW is ~3.5C even for a 100kWh pack. That kind of increase in charge rate usually takes a decade or more to achieve if all other parameters are held constant.
Now undoubtedly Tesla *could* charge existing cells at 3.5C, or at 10C, but it would have an unacceptable impact on cycle life (and sustained 10C would probably cause thermal runaway fairly quickly).

OK, thank you, this is more informative. I still think Tesla's probably got the problem solved without major advances in cell chemistry.

All these parameters; energy density, power density, cycle life, safety, cell size... they are all related, and they are all affected by temperature, SOC, C-Rate, pressure, existing cycles performed and other factors.

Temperature appears to be absolutely critical in real-world applications, and I do suspect that much more serious cooling could allow charging of existing cells at 3.5 C (at least in the middle section of the SOC range, top and bottom are always problematic) given sufficient temperature control. We know that Tesla's first move when trying to speed up Superchargers was in fact trying to cool the cables, and we know that Tesla is on at least its second generation of pack cooling architecture with the S & X... all before changing the cells. Their enegineering priorities seem clear and I think there's a reason for that.

I'll be the first to tell you that Tesla's batteries are the best and Tesla's battery strategy going forward is the best for cars in the 35-150k price range. But looking at the charge curve from recorded supercharging sessions makes it clear that the cells themselves are the limiting factor a majority of the time.

I'm going to challenge you again: How do you tell the difference between that and heat / temperature imposed limitations? I'm frankly suspicious that you don't have the data to tell the difference. Ever done tests on Tesla cells which are precooled and aggressively kept cooled? I've never heard of any...

 

[T3slaTulips]

And we're climbing at the moment. Maybe we should miss everytime?

 

[Green Pete]

And we're climbing at the moment. Maybe we should miss everytime?

I think there's a hope the event will precipitate a rise in price similar to Model 3 reveal.

 

[Drax7]

I think you misunderstand the point of him not caring about making money. He does, he plans to use his TSLA holdings to finance his Mars colonization plans and has said as much.

What he doesn't care is maximizing short term profits at the cost of long term plans. He will sacrifice short term for the higher return further out and has done so many times. He doesn't care if TSLA is profitable in Q3, Q4, Q1 etc. He cares that the cashflow is there to reinvest into the growth to reach his end goals of saving humanity. To do that he needs to generate cash so yes he does care about profits, but they are not a goal itself. He games the quarters because Wall str needs it and he needs the Wall str still to get investments. Once TSLA has enough growth momentum to tell Wall str to take a hike for future raises he'll stop this catering and optimize for everything else.

But he doesn't care about making the maximum profit Q-over-Q. He cares about making maximum effect and impact to the world down the line and to do that he needs leverage (profits / cashflow) in the interim.

Too much altruism can be wonderful .
Gag me.

 

[Green Pete]

To me FF is the scam many claimed Tesla to be back in the day (and some still do today).

The backers of FF are real money. And based on the look on the CEOs face about even putting his life on the line I have a gut feeling the Chinese Government is even backing it, meaning a failure would not go over well.

I think its more a case of trying to run before they walk/Chinese government wants in on self driving supercars and knows they can't get western expertise to move to China to do it. Self driving cars are going to be huge, but In ethically questionable hands the tech could be used for far more invasive behavior than phone hacking.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Even if TSLA had been consistently beating guidance, Wall St. would adjust and start expecting a beat every quarter. It might have helped over the last couple years and then hurt over the next couple. It all balances out in the end. Things are on track, that's all that matters to me.

Edit: case in point, market's reaction at open.

 

[Krugerrand]

Is that a maybe?

I'd say it's one of two thing:

a) damage control
b) big butted hint that all is a-ok

 

[NOLA_Mike]

...and we open in the green on large volume. So, somebody is buying (whether to accumulate or cover a short position).

Perhaps some bad news about the GigaFactory and we could really run!

EDIT: 1.2M shares in first 15 mins.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Ok I know the thread will be flooded with people in disbelief over the SP action, but just to add this to the conversation:

Let's put things into perspective, shall we? The market demand for luxury sedans with a ASP of $100k is not unlimited. Sure, China, as in all luxury items, is growing, but I was always amazed at the unrealistic expectations some have had over potential global Model S market size.
Add to that the entry of the Model X, which will cannibalize some of the S sales and the Model 3 which will eliminate some of the "stretch" buyers of S.

With all of that it is downright amazing what Tesla has achieved. Not only did they beat everyone in class in the US in 2015, but are expected to beat everyone again this year too (30k Model S deliveries vs 25k last year) and globally they will probably only be second to the S Class MB (100k production last year, can't beat that).

When people talk about plateauing S demand I can't help but think: "WTF did you expect? A $100k sedan scaling to a million cars a year?".

 

[Irishjugg]

This entire conversation is so hilarious. Bear troll trying to make a point to a bull troll. lol

Drinkerofkoolaid is such an extraordinary bull troll I had him on ignore for a while now. Value Ev has been on my ignore on and off.

I find Value Ev to be semi reasonable, but drinker dude is just so incredibly outlandish. Quite honestly outright dangerous, if "investing" info is what one comes here for. He reminds me of foghat from the SCTY thread.

Don't get religious. For the love of money, this is investing sub-forum.

Foghat wasn't necessarily wrong about the core business strength of SCTY though.

 

[jhm]

How much is FF for Chinese consumption? I could see them staging as cutting edge American innovation for marketing to Chinese EV consumers. That is, they don't really need to be competitive with Tesla within US market. Being competitive within Chinese market is enough.