Mike Smith
Active Member
If Tesla misses their predicted deliveries in 2018 by the same percentage as this year they'll deliver 476,438 cars.
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PaulRocket
Member
Haven't seen this posted yet, Tesla will soon announce another TE project:
Meralco pursues Tesla partnership
Meralco pursues Tesla partnership
Yuri_G
Member
For a little perspective. Tesla sold ~22,000 cars in 2013.
Mike Smith
Active Member
I suspect Tesla will be announcing some major TE projects tomorrow, which would explain why there haven't been any announcements recently.
sure, very likely we have to read financial press with this sort of depiction of Tesla/Musk... but does that really change any of our valuation of Tesla? I guess I'm being unfair a bit here... as of a few days ago, this was the "short-term" thread, and, yes, more "we'll believe it when we see it" reinforcement doesn't help if one is looking for valuation appreciation sooner than later.
still, would anyone really be disappointed with 110K S/X sales next year, whatever Musk's initial guidance?
anyone really disappointed with Model 3 first deliveries possibly delayed a few months on the way to about 500,000 total annual Tesla deliveries circa 2019? up until 6 months ago or so, and Musk's pushing that 500K date up, I for one couldn't imagine how they'd get to 500,000 by 2020.
I'll make a friendly wager with anyone here that at least through 2020, "never getting their act together Tesla" delivers more long range EVs each year than all the other "big boys" combined.
unlike any other company or CEO I've ever seen, Tesla and Musk deliver.
One significant metric that I did not see anybody mention is weekly production rate during last four weeks of the quarter. Even using all the conservative assumptions (assuming average production rat over 11 weeks as a base and assuming no holiday breaks in last 4 weeks of December) the exit production rate averaged over 4 last weeks was a minimum of 2950 cars/week.
Base average production rate assuming total of 11 working weeks: 24,882 / 11 = 2262 cars/week
Production deficit during end of October and beginning of December = vehicles missed being counted = 2750 cars. As a side metric, assuming that production slowdown lasted two weeks starting Nov. 20, average production during this period was 2262 - 2750 / 2 = 887 cars/week
Conservatively assuming recuperation time of four last weeks of the year and ignoring holidays, average production rate during this period was 2262 + 2750 / 4 = 2949.5 cars/week. It would be great to know if this rate was achieved through adding a lot of OT hours, or at least partially due to increased throughput capacity of the final assembly line.
Above numbers are clearly based on some assumptions, which I believe are conservative, but IMO give a good sense of Fremont's current maximum production throughput capabilities.
Base average production rate assuming total of 11 working weeks: 24,882 / 11 = 2262 cars/week
Production deficit during end of October and beginning of December = vehicles missed being counted = 2750 cars. As a side metric, assuming that production slowdown lasted two weeks starting Nov. 20, average production during this period was 2262 - 2750 / 2 = 887 cars/week
Conservatively assuming recuperation time of four last weeks of the year and ignoring holidays, average production rate during this period was 2262 + 2750 / 4 = 2949.5 cars/week. It would be great to know if this rate was achieved through adding a lot of OT hours, or at least partially due to increased throughput capacity of the final assembly line.
Above numbers are clearly based on some assumptions, which I believe are conservative, but IMO give a good sense of Fremont's current maximum production throughput capabilities.
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BTW, at the end of Q4, in addition to 6,450 cars in transit to customers, additional 1,297 cars were built (but not sold yet) for inventory. This means that there will be at least 6,450 + 1297 = 7,747 cars that were produced in Q4 but will be sold in Q1 2017.
Cars built for inventory but not sold = Produced - Delivered + Q3 Transit - Q4 Transit = 24,882 - 22,200 + 5065 -6450 = 1297.
Cars built for inventory but not sold = Produced - Delivered + Q3 Transit - Q4 Transit = 24,882 - 22,200 + 5065 -6450 = 1297.
Yep, was posted about 12 hours and 13 pages back - here.
As far as average production on this thread goes, this is equivalent to an average of little over 1 page/hour.
dc_h
Active Member
Estimated never. Maybe we should have a poll. I'm definitely taking the over on 2018. Maybe if they had a secret master plan I could buy in.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Timing matters. If Tesla hit majority of self-imposed goals in the last 18 months, I'd be having 2 new Tesla's parked in front of the house, instead of new Mazda 5 and desperately trying to repair 13 year old Porsche.
Lots of people here make a mistake and assume that everyone is a long term investor that is unaffected with temporary fluctuations of the SP. Not everyone's situation is the same.
Also, there was another comment that we should be used to Tesla missing out estimates. I disagree. While I understand it now, and didn't get burned last couple of times, it takes time to truly internalize Tesla's behavior.
There are investors new to Tesla every day, and they wouldn't know what they're getting into. Out of respectable companies, Tesla is unique in its disdain to WS norms, and that has real life consequences for some investors out there. I agree that even after big drops, investors with the nerve to hold, and in stock only, will likely get whole and make money. This is just a subset of investors though. Most everyone is trained that where there is a smoke, there is a fire, and missing out on estimates looks a lot like a smoke. So, I can understand someone panic out and exit, and all sorts of other wrong behaviors...
I agree, biting the bullet on AP2 was almost certainly worth missing delivery guidance by a week or so worth of deliveries. I wonder though if they couldn't have revised guidance again due to the shut down for hardware upgrade.
Any chance for positive FCF?
PaulRocket
Member
Sorry I missed that.Yep, was posted about 12 hours and 13 pages back - here.
As far as average production on this thread goes, this is equivalent to an average of little over 1 page/hour.
Regarding the GF, Dana Hull from Bloomberg covering Tesla and SpaceX said that no media is allowed to the event, just analysts and investors.
Could someone mail the guy from Investor Relations and ask what is going on?
Krugerrand
Meow
That's not our problem or your problem. It's 'their' problem. If someone invests without due diligence, that's on them. Making assumptions that one company is like another, frankly deserves one getting their hands slapped. Reading headlines and investing according to those, also deserves one getting their hands slapped. I can sympathize and empathize, but we all have to be responsible for our own actions.
Many here took a lot of time researching before investing in Tesla a number of years ago. We knew it was a long shot and that we might never see our money again. Mostly I invested in the man, others invested in the idea of EVs. Still some had other reasons for investing.
The risk is so much less today than it was at IPO. There's a ton more information available than 'back in the day'. Someone new to Tesla today has a leg up on those of us who took the initial dive off the 10 meter platform into a glass of water.
Krugerrand
Meow
Let me requote a Tesla quote and put it right here for you:
Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company's financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.
graphix25
-=electronboy=-
Road to 5 Million! A playful 10 year forecast. Any guess what the market cap will be in 2027? Here is mine.
5M Cars @ Avg Sale Price 50k = (250B + 100B TE + 10B Mobility) = 360B * 10% Margin = 36B Profit * 15 PE = 540B Market Cap
5M Cars @ Avg Sale Price 50k = (250B + 100B TE + 10B Mobility) = 360B * 10% Margin = 36B Profit * 15 PE = 540B Market Cap
for perspective...
BMW sold 209,743 cars in November... more cars than Tesla has sold in company history.
for the first 11 months of 2016, BMW grew sales by 5.6%, or greater than 100k cars.
Well... the whole problem with making statement on Oct 26 about 50.000 deliveries and (slightly) missing it, is that we, on TMC, can see beyond it and see the 6500 in transit & sky high demand.
Belgian media including state-owned,however, is absolutely loving it with headliners such as "Tesla hype reaches standstill".
Belgian media including state-owned,however, is absolutely loving it with headliners such as "Tesla hype reaches standstill".
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