2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Yggdrasill]

4) sovereign wealth? Norway and UAE (where Elon is speaking in 8 hours), alone, a little over the $2 trillion needed. others with more knowledge can chime in, but I suspect green lighting massive investments is markedly easier for at least some sovereign wealth funds than publicly traded companies. motivation? Norway seems very motivated for green energy already, UAE and other oil rich nations... it might not be the future they would have written, but if they are facing the choices they do have, Elon's vision probably looks pretty good.

just having fun here... not expecting to hear about a a $100 billion commitment, much less a trillion dollar commitment this week. but, given where things could go, something like a $5 billion plan for a GF in partnership with UAE could be a glimpse of a game changing strategic realignment in the energy world hitting the sweet spot of Tesla's mission.

I don't know much about UAEs wealth fund, but the Norwegian wealth fund does have some rules:

- Companies making weapons that don't align with humanitarian principles are out. (Nuclear weapons, cluster bombs.)
- Companies deriving at least 30% of their revenue from coal are out.
- Companies making tobacco are out.

There are some other a bit more fuzzy rules regarding child labor, supporting dictatorships, exploitation, etc. Some companies are excluded based on an assessment by the ethics council, others are still in, with the wealth fund trying to influence the companies by being a shareholder.

Our soverign wealth fund is careful to spread out it's investments over many companies. A typical investment is less than 1% of the market cap, and always less than 5%. But it certainly adds up when you have 0.8% of Apple, 2.4% of Nestlé, 1.6% of Roche, etc.

Our sovereign wealth fund also owned 1.4% of Tesla, but that was back in september 2015, so I don't know how much they own now. It wouldn't surprise me if they have been buying the last few months.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Very cool!
Looking more closely at the mohammed bin rashid al maktoum solar park in Dubai, it is actually a mix of solar panels (200MW already completed), and concentrating solar power (not built yet).

Clarification on the summit in Dubai.
Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum already gave his speech today, and so apparently will not be talking shortly after Musk.
Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, will be announcing the future project sometime during the summit but he is not actually listed as a speaker that I can see.

Here's their YouTube video showing their plans for development and phases of additional solar (start at around 2 min). The CSP will be at the end and the bulk appears to be standard PV (800 MW).

Phase 1 = 13 MW in 2013
Phase 2 = 200 MW (Independent power producer) in 2017
Phase 3 = 800 MW (IPP) in 2018 to 2020
Phase 4 = 200 MW (Concentrated Solar Power) in 2021

CSP power plant 1000 MW in 2030-- this last part I am not sure how it ties in with previous phases just based on the video.

Edit: Please note that these are my assumptions from watching the video. Those with more information about what is actually in the works feel free to correct my interpretation.

 

[MitchJi]

when you consider the scale of battery supply needed globally to meet Musk's goals, leveraging oil wealth to finance the acceleration of sustainable energy seems a clear winner if that oil wealth can be persuaded to join this effort (obviously quite the if, but Elon is talking in Dubai tomorrow).

Basic math from the original GF1 numbers suggests the need of 200 GFs costing $1 trillion to convert all vehicle production to EVs. I realize that with new GF plans, that may be 70 GFs, costing an as yet unclear slimmed down number from the $1 trillion figure (really hoping an analyst asks for clarity on this during the next conference call. I've emailed IR on this, no response).

I've suggested this idea to Tesla via emails to IR and others plus a post here (Elon said that to make suggestions post them on the TMC Forums). Almost no response. If you agree please add some positive comments or email a link to potential large investors:
Suggestion for Tesla to accelerate their trajectory for reducing carbon emissions

—————— —————— information not in the email to Tesla starts here —————— ——————
I sent a slightly different version of the information contained in this post, via email to Tesla’s Investor Relations with no response.

Information not contained in the email to Tesla starts here:
The reasons I’m posting this here are:

1. I believe that if Elon/Tesla decide to implement this suggestion that will lead to a huge reduction in carbon emissions.

2. I believe that if Elon/Tesla know about this suggestion there is a good chance that they will decide to do it.

3. I don’t know how to make sure that that Elon/Tesla have received a suggestion from me.

4. The best way to make this happen would be for potential investors to contact Elon/Tesla.

I'm hoping that posting this here will accomplish numbers 3 and 4. If a bunch of responses will help, please do it!

Tesla is currently working on plans to build their second Gigafactory in Europe. Elon Musk says that we need 100 Gigafactories world wide, which at $5-10 billion each is a potential .5-1 trillion dollar investment opportunity. I believe that if Elon had access to the necessary capital he would build as many of the 100 Gigafactories as he can.


—————— ————— previous email to Tesla starts here —————— ——————
<snip>
Problems:
It seems clear to me that the strategy of waiting for "all the big companies to do the same thing" and "governments to set the rules in favor of sustainable energy” will work eventually, but given the urgency of the problem not nearly quickly enough.

No other company is committed to doing this, and even if they wanted to tackle this problem nobody else is equipped to do it. The problem is bigger than making a sufficient quantity of batteries. The problem is making a sufficient quantity of compellingly priced high quality batteries. Nobody else is even close to matching Tesla on price and quality. If this is going to be accomplished in time to avoid a series of epic environmental catastrophes I believe that Tesla needs to play a much bigger role than Elon currently envisions.
<snip>
Suggestion:
I believe that Elon-Tesla could help produce the required changes much more quickly, by providing a compelling way for individual investors, governments and other investors including municipalities and pension funds, to invest in Gigafactories for batteries, vehicle factories, and Solar Panels and Solar Tiles, that would be built and managed by Tesla.

There are a very large number of investors who want to use their investments to help the environment and/or produce jobs and earn a reliable income.Tesla has done an amazingly good job of producing compelling products. I’m sure, that if you set out to accomplish this, you can provide a equally compelling way for investors to participate.

You could start by targeting entities that have divested a total of $5 trillion, (sufficient for 500 10 billion dollar Gigafactories). If you can structure an investment so that there is a good chance of earning something like 10-15% I think you could get a significant number of them to invest. Solarcity probably already has employees who are experts at doing exactly that. If you only obtain commitments for one or a small handful Gigafactories (I believe that you could do much better than that), even that few a number would really accelerate your trajectory for making a huge positive impact on the environment.
<snip>

 

[GoTslaGo]

I've suggested this idea to Tesla via emails to IR and others plus a post here (Elon said that to make suggestions post them on the TMC Forums). Almost no response. If you agree please add some positive comments or email a link to potential large investors:
Suggestion for Tesla to accelerate their trajectory for reducing carbon emissions

—————— —————— information not in the email to Tesla starts here —————— ——————
I sent a slightly different version of the information contained in this post, via email to Tesla’s Investor Relations with no response.

Information not contained in the email to Tesla starts here:
The reasons I’m posting this here are:

1. I believe that if Elon/Tesla decide to implement this suggestion that will lead to a huge reduction in carbon emissions.

2. I believe that if Elon/Tesla know about this suggestion there is a good chance that they will decide to do it.

3. I don’t know how to make sure that that Elon/Tesla have received a suggestion from me.

4. The best way to make this happen would be for potential investors to contact Elon/Tesla.

I'm hoping that posting this here will accomplish numbers 3 and 4. If a bunch of responses will help, please do it!

Tesla is currently working on plans to build their second Gigafactory in Europe. Elon Musk says that we need 100 Gigafactories world wide, which at $5-10 billion each is a potential .5-1 trillion dollar investment opportunity. I believe that if Elon had access to the necessary capital he would build as many of the 100 Gigafactories as he can.


—————— ————— previous email to Tesla starts here —————— ——————
<snip>
Problems:
It seems clear to me that the strategy of waiting for "all the big companies to do the same thing" and "governments to set the rules in favor of sustainable energy” will work eventually, but given the urgency of the problem not nearly quickly enough.

No other company is committed to doing this, and even if they wanted to tackle this problem nobody else is equipped to do it. The problem is bigger than making a sufficient quantity of batteries. The problem is making a sufficient quantity of compellingly priced high quality batteries. Nobody else is even close to matching Tesla on price and quality. If this is going to be accomplished in time to avoid a series of epic environmental catastrophes I believe that Tesla needs to play a much bigger role than Elon currently envisions.
<snip>
Suggestion:
I believe that Elon-Tesla could help produce the required changes much more quickly, by providing a compelling way for individual investors, governments and other investors including municipalities and pension funds, to invest in Gigafactories for batteries, vehicle factories, and Solar Panels and Solar Tiles, that would be built and managed by Tesla.

There are a very large number of investors who want to use their investments to help the environment and/or produce jobs and earn a reliable income.Tesla has done an amazingly good job of producing compelling products. I’m sure, that if you set out to accomplish this, you can provide a equally compelling way for investors to participate.

You could start by targeting entities that have divested a total of $5 trillion, (sufficient for 500 10 billion dollar Gigafactories). If you can structure an investment so that there is a good chance of earning something like 10-15% I think you could get a significant number of them to invest. Solarcity probably already has employees who are experts at doing exactly that. If you only obtain commitments for one or a small handful Gigafactories (I believe that you could do much better than that), even that few a number would really accelerate your trajectory for making a huge positive impact on the environment.
<snip>

Well, here's to hoping that part of Elon's visit and presentation (and being presented) in Dubai tomorrow/today will be a beginning of this investment. Even if it's just an announcement of Power Packs committed (for the upcoming 200MW to come on line in 2017), it may be a test case which will bring in large scale investors and Sovereign Wealth Funds.

 

[erthquake]

The issue doesn't seem to be the cause of the accident but the result. The BAC of the driver really doesn't have anything to do with it. My interpretation of the events is that the Tesla quickly exploded after the accident, allowing no time for rescue or escape. That may not in fact be what happened but that seems to be the implication.

So did the Porsche that Paul Walker was riding in. Extreme speed kills, irrespective of the machine generating that speed.

 

[MitchJi]

Unrealistically bullish but it might help on Monday:
There's no question that the Tesla Model 3 will launch on schedule in 2017

There's no question that the Tesla Model 3 will launch on schedule in 2017
<Snip>
Because Tesla was three years late launching its last vehicle, the Model X SUV, speculation has been rampant that the Model 3 will suffer similar delays. Everyone also now knows that the Model X's complicated design and troubled initial production created a hellish situation for Tesla CEO Elon Musk and his team.

Memories of that struggle have fueled views that Tesla will make Model 3 customers wait and wait and wait some more to get their cars.

But those fears are misplaced. In fact, Tesla is on now on track to potentially launch the Model 3 ahead of schedule.

Hitting its marks
Model 3 test-builds will commence on February 20, Reuters reported. Initial production is slated for July, assuming that Tesla can organize its supply chain and not have to wait on parts.

Test building will help the carmaker refine the Model 3 design and isolate any quality control issues. It will also demonstrate whether a simpler design for the Model 3 will enable production at the scale Musk needs to meet pre-orders and push toward a 500,000-per-year run rate by 2018 (not all those vehicles would be Model 3s, of course, but the 3 is expected to consume the bulk of Tesla's future manufacturing capacity).

There will be obvious signs of whether Tesla is on track. In March and April, we should start to spot prototype Model 3s in the wild, undergoing real-world road trials. Tesla will also have to give the government several Model 3s for crash testing. And production versions of the vehicle will appear at Tesla's stores, to stoke interest and reassure Model 3 pre-order customers that their cars are on the way.

A lot of the specifics about the Model 3 in terms of features and performance may not be unveiled until the car's launch. But that launch could happen in short order, in production fires up in July. For the past year, we've been expecting the Model 3 to launch in the fourth quarter of 2017. But a third-quarter launch is now a real possibility.

The naysayers could get burned on this one. Tesla learned a lot about how to build cars when it created the Model S from scratch back in the early 2010s. The Model X was overly ambitious, and Tesla now knows that it can't make that mistake again.

The Model 3, unlike the Model S and X, will use steel rather than aluminum in its construction, which will simplify Tesla's manufacturing process. Early indications are that the carmaker may streamline some interior components, such as the instrumentation. Every Model 3 will come with Enhanced Autopilot hardware, but there's nothing exotic about cameras and sensors. And Tesla isn't going to use a battery or powertrain setup that's substantially different from what it already has on the Models S and X.

The bottom line is that electric cars are actually easier to build than gas-powered ones, and Tesla should start to see meaningful returns on that simple reality as it moves into mass-production for the Model 3.

Mind you, Tesla probably won't roll anywhere near 100,000 vehicles at first. If a few thousand Model 3 vehicles exit the Tesla factory in Fremont, CA this year, it will be a commendable achiekkvement. I've been joking with colleagues for months that Tesla will get the 3 launched in 2017 — even if it only sends a dozen vehicles off the assembly line, with Musk behind the wheel of the first one.

Production at scale will likely not occur until mid-2018 at the earliest, and it's worth noting that Tesla still needs to produce the Model S and Model X, as both vehicles command substantially higher prices and bring in larger profits. Ironically, Tesla is heading downmarket after having established itself at the more profitable, high-end of the auto market.

 

[JBRR]

Livestreams via periscope can be found here:
Dubai Media Office (@DXBMediaOffice) | Twitter
World Gov Summit @WorldGovSummit

 

[WarpedOne]

Current time in Dubai is 1:10 PM
Elon is scheduled at 3:30, so he should appear in 2:20

 

[schonelucht]

From what I can recall, the collision was high-speed and left a tremendous debris field. The only other accident I can recall of similar magnitude was when someone stole a Tesla Model S, lost control at high speed resulting in going airborne, and the car was split in half upon collision with a traffic signal pole. The thief was actually alive for a while afterwards but died of injuries later.

There is also the incident with the Dutch driver which was very similar. High speed, hit a tree, debris field all over the place with lithium cells burning and popping. And unfortunately the driver who didn't make it.

 

[MitchJi]

Energy Storage Set To Boom In 2017 | OilPrice.com

Energy Storage Set To Boom In 2017

The problem with today’s power grid isn’t the lack of electricity but rather the lack of it at certain times. The United States has progressively moved towards adding renewable energy to the grid but solar and wind power are rather intermittent. Worst of all, some of this power is completely wasted because our grid is unable to store it properly. Tesla, along with other companies, has begun to solve this pressing issue.

Three new storage plants are in the works and they’re unlike anything before. The plants will be completely reliant on lithium ion storage. Lithium powered batteries have seen rapid reductions in price in the past several year’s thanks to the high demand for electric cars. Tesla is also developing a gigafactory in Nevada to mass produce these batteries, some of which will be used in the storage plant. AES Corp. and Altagas Ltd. are the other two companies creating battery plants in California. The Altagas plant was activated January 27th. AES has another battery plant in Arizona scheduled to go online within the next several months as well as a project internationally in India.

These plants will reduce the number of blackouts due to power shortage at peak hours and prevent loss of power generated but not used. When it comes to renewables there’s virtually no carbon dioxide emission or risk of spills harming the environment. Electricity generated from renewables will be stored appropriately and reinforce the notion that our power grid really can go green.

This does not bode well for fossil fuel producers. Combustion plants using fossil fuels see this as an imposing threat to their industry. With 67 percent of our grid currently relying on nonrenewable energy, there could be a sizeable portion of market share up for grabs. The push to reduce climate change has governments betting on these batteries. President Trump, however, has promised to bring coal and crude production to a new level of activity. Economists are unsure how his policy will play out but all this guarantees oil producers is a little more sweet time before this inevitable adaptation.

AES has remained steady while Altagas dropped $2.18 per share since the week of their plant’s opening. Even with these losses, investors should consider Altagas as well as AES. The projects show promises of growth but only a fraction of what’s expected of Tesla. The company’s stock has grown nearly $70 since December and analysts don’t see momentum slowing. Tesla’s plant is now online and the gigafactory is to be completed next year. Investors should see strong returns in Tesla’s stocks around these times, especially with a lot riding on the gigafactory’s planned opening.

It’s unlikely crude benchmarks will react towards this news but future plans may prove otherwise. Oil majors are beginning to worry when demand will peak, knowing that cloud may be just over the horizon. Investors shouldn’t concern themselves with an approaching downward trend yet and should continue to ride out the OPEC supply cuts.

By Michael McDonald of Oilprice.com

 

[JBRR]

 

[Navin]

 

[JBRR]

Youtube livestream.

 

[aubreymcfato]

There is this one too:

 

[myusername]

Unrealistically bullish but it might help on Monday:
There's no question that the Tesla Model 3 will launch on schedule in 2017

....

ok... I already know what you're all going to say: "that's not what they said"

as always... the wording choices of Tesla and Elon are always completely vague to leave open the imagination towards the high side:

Tesla puts pedal to the metal, 500,000 cars planned in 2018
Tesla Q1 Earnings: 500k EVs Built In 2018, 100,000+ Model 3s in 2017
Tesla to Produce 500k Vehicles in 2018, 2 Years Ahead of Schedule
Tesla says it will build 500K cars a year by end of 2018; can it?

so yeah... just 9 months ago, Tesla made everyone believe they'd produce 500k cars in 2018 and 100k cars in 2017... and now there's an article titled:

"There's no question that the Tesla Model 3 will launch on schedule in 2017"

and says in it:

"Production at scale will likely not occur until mid-2018 at the earliest"

 

[geneclean55]

Tesla’s Elon Musk meets Dewa chief as Dubai works on electric vehicles take-up | The National

 

[myusername]

and like I said would happen 2 months ago when the market cap starts getting into beyond ridiculous category again:

Tesla Market Value Reaches 88% of Ford’s

"The contrast in size between the two is massive. Tesla barely produced 83,000 cars last year. Ford produced over 6.6 million. Even if Tesla hits its near-term forecasts, its production will barely top 500,000 in two years."

this is why valuation is important.

 

[vgrinshpun]

and like I said would happen 2 months ago when the market cap starts getting into beyond ridiculous category again:

Tesla Market Value Reaches 88% of Ford’s

"The contrast in size between the two is massive. Tesla barely produced 83,000 cars last year. Ford produced over 6.6 million. Even if Tesla hits its near-term forecasts, its production will barely top 500,000 in two years."

this is why valuation is important.

And all production assets for these 6.6 million ICE cars will need to be transitioned to producing EVs in relatively short order. Where the money will come if 6.6 million ICE they are selling now are going to shrink? Go ahead, invest in Ford. I know where my money will be invested in.

 

[myusername]

And all production assets for these 6.6 million ICE cars will need to be transitioned to producing EVs in relatively short order. Where the money will come if 6.6 million ICE they are selling now are going to shrink? Go ahead, invest in Ford. I know where my money will be invested in.

why's that?... because Tesla is going to produce 80m/yr EVs by 2022?... IF EVs replace ICE... the day EVs take 50% of the market will be after 2030... and of course you think the dinosaurs are just sitting around doing nothing right?... because there's only one true visionary?

sorry... this is a bit nuts.

 

[WarpedOne]

and of course you think the dinosaurs are just sitting around doing nothing right?

Yes, almost all of them are very busy doing nothing.
Sole exception is VW that is still debating by itself should it or should it not build their on battery production facilites.

If that is to hard to swallow for you then I am very sorry. Your personal preferences do not change the facts.