2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[GoTslaGo]

I hate speculating like this but there are definitely connecting dots. UAE is building the world's largest solar farm. They sure could use some storage.

Now that would be smart.

Like how Norway uses hydroelectric and encourages everyone to use EVs, then exports petroleum products for big bucks. Middle East countries should use their greatest/cheapest resource, solar, put them in batteries and export their petroleum products.

Course the conundrum will be when everyone is using EVs/batteries and solar/wind/hydro/nuclear, who's going to buy the petroleum.... Well there's always the market for plastics! (Wasn't that the point of the API Super Bowl commercial?)

 

[Paracelsus]

......another irony here is that last week some of us were speculating that the next GF or two was likely already in the planning phases but perhaps hadn't been announced yet because Elon/Tesla wanted to optimize market timing for that announcement. Wouldn't it be interesting if the real reason it hadn't been announced yet is because Sheikh Hamdan wanted to make the GF announcement for Dubai at this forum. Perhaps Tesla is not the entity to control the timing of this announcement? I need to get a beer and get back to my barn-building project.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Now that would be smart.

Like how Norway uses hydroelectric and encourages everyone to use EVs, then exports petroleum products for big bucks. Middle East countries should use their greatest/cheapest resource, solar, put them in batteries and export their petroleum products.

"Don't get high off your own supply"

 

[geneclean55]

I hate speculating like this but there are definitely connecting dots. UAE is building the world's largest solar farm. They sure could use some storage.

Interesting, not sure how that would work though. Apparently it is a concentrating solar power project which use molten salts, or liquids to store heat when the sun isn't out. Any experts on this?

 

[GoTslaGo]

Interesting, not sure how that would work though. Apparently it is a concentrating solar power project which use molten salts, or liquids to store heat when the sun isn't out. Any experts on this?

Not an expert, but here's a Wikipedia link:

Concentrated solar power - Wikipedia

From the article:

"CSP is used to produce electricity (sometimes called solar thermoelectricity, usually generated through steam). Concentrated-solar technology systems use mirrors or lenses with tracking systems to focus a large area of sunlight onto a small area. The concentrated light is then used as heat or as a heat source for a conventional power plant (solar thermoelectricity). The solar concentrators used in CSP systems can often also be used to provide industrial process heating or cooling, such as in solar air conditioning."

 

[dc_h]

model S RWD-before-AWD had nothing to do with production, and everything to do with engineering. Now that the engineering's done, model 3 production will be based on profitability. Using the model S's 75D rollout as an example, AWD will come out first, and then RWD will be offered to hit the $35k target.

The batteries and motors are being built in the gigafactory, there's almost no impact to the fremont assembly line regardless of AWD or RWD (other than the extra step of adding that 2nd motor).

Employee orders first. This is set in stone by Elon. The rollout will not be the same as S & X, no Sigs and the focus will be on Tesla and SpaceX employees, and then a more rapid scale up. They can't afford the support issues they had with S or X with the Model 3, the challenge of fixing post production issues will be 10 times as difficult. Bonnie just noted this up thread and it has been discussed many times.

 

[geneclean55]

Dubai Media Office (@DXBMediaOffice) | Twitter

Looks like the Sheikh already gave his opening remarks today. Hopefully his talk tomorrow will be all business.

Lagarde is there, so is president of World Bank. Musk is not there yet apparently.

 

[dc_h]

I hate speculating like this but there are definitely connecting dots. UAE is building the world's largest solar farm. They sure could use some storage.

Announcing an initial GWh system to be delivered over the course of the year would be a nice way to start the week. It is likely him talking about how this will work and the economic benefits and big picture stuff, but a sale would be huge.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Well, noticed a likely "benefit" of having the Gigafactory being built near Reno.

Last month (Dec '16) gaming revenue for Washoe County (Reno) up ~14%, ~7% for 3 months, and ~5% for year.

FYI

 

[Ugliest1]

Well, noticed a likely "benefit" of having the Gigafactory being built near Reno.

Last month (Dec '16) gaming revenue for Washoe County (Reno) up ~14%, ~7% for 3 months, and ~5% for year.

FYI

That's because we visited Reno in October. And couldn't get near the GF. A double whammy, if you will. :-(

 

[MXWing]

I don't believe for a second that Tesla Elon even try to exploit their employees, or negligently fail to maintain equipment to the extent that it would endanger their employees.

If their employees even thought that Tesla had been trying to exploit them the employees would have been trying harder to unionize than they have been.

I have zero concerns about the entire issue. If the employees unionize I don't think that will cost Tesla a significant amount (if any) more than they are paying now.

I'll work for stock options only.

1. 
   
   Jon Speckman doesn't claim to be an expert in crash reconstruction, but as a grieving father he questions the logic of allowing a vehicle this powerful on city streets.
   
   "This is a vehicle that travels from 0 to 60 in 3.1 seconds. She's clearly having to swerve to miss a vehicle going the wrong way on a one-way street," Speckman said.
   
   "If her foot should happen to hit the accelerator, it's like a rocket ship. I don't know why they have to make a car that does that."
   His daughter died from the impact. He doesn't even know that the power and speed of the Tesla caused or contributed to the impact.

I am sorry for the loss of the father but calling a car a rocket ship is an ENDORSEMENT.

 

[Paracelsus]

Interesting, not sure how that would work though. Apparently it is a concentrating solar power project which use molten salts, or liquids to store heat when the sun isn't out. Any experts on this?

Certainly not an expert here either, but I have really enjoyed following SolarPACES on LinkedIn. They routinely post projects and photos of massive scale that we would not hear about otherwise in the US, and almost all of them are in the Middle East. I have followed them for quite some time and yet am still amazed at the scale of the concentrated solar projects that are being installed. If you use LinkedIn you can find them here:

https://www.linkedin.com/company/1897566

Here is their short bio on LinkedIn: "SolarPACES is an international cooperative network bringing together teams of national experts from around the world to focus on the development and marketing of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) systems (also known as solar thermal power systems). It is one of a number of collaborative programs, called Technology Collaboration Programmes, managed under the umbrella of the International Energy Agency to help find solutions to worldwide energy problems."

 

[geneclean55]

Very cool!
Looking more closely at the mohammed bin rashid al maktoum solar park in Dubai, it is actually a mix of solar panels (200MW already completed), and concentrating solar power (not built yet).

Clarification on the summit in Dubai.
Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum already gave his speech today, and so apparently will not be talking shortly after Musk.
Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, will be announcing the future project sometime during the summit but he is not actually listed as a speaker that I can see.

 

[mmd]

WRT to the GF parking lot: I care more that the GF is producing batteries and battery packs than how many cars are in the lot at any given time. ^THAT^ is what I am basing part of my TSLA investment thesis on.

@AlMc, I agree with you. You'll have to explain that to @DaveT and the 45 others who found the picture in his post #5062 useful. And to Electrek, and to the Tesla employee who leaked(uploaded) the image. And to jesse, who is more interested in counting parking lots than cars. I figured, the picture is supposed to mean something to Tesla investors.

What's curious though, is that the latest drone footage (uploaded Jan 21) on youtube shows a much sparser parking lot. Nowhere close to even the "lowly" estimate of 600 I put out earlier. I was really hoping, that jesse will come back with an exact count of cars in the Jan 2017 footage for everyone's sake with his advanced math skills, which I suppose is much higher than my below 4th grade math skills Well, just more waiting till someone uploads the February drone footage.

Here is a very informative Wikipedia article on GF1. Originally, Tesla bought 43 million sf (1000 acres) of land and the plan was to build a GF of 10 million sf. That means, 33 msf for parking etc. Tesla later bought another 1864 acres. So, they have a lot of room to grow there.
Gigafactory 1 - Wikipedia

From the article:
* In June 2015, Tesla announced it exercised its option to buy 1,864 acres (754 hectares) of land adjacent to the original 1,000-acre (400 ha) Gigafactory site
* Depending on season and building stage, the number of construction workers has fluctuated between 250 and 1,800
* By April 2016 Gigafactory had 317 Tesla employees and 52 by Panasonic, most of them from Nevada,[85] and 850 by December 2016
[/QUOTE]

 

[vgrinshpun]

What's curious though, is that the latest drone footage (uploaded Jan 21) on youtube shows a much sparser parking lot. Nowhere close to even the "lowly" estimate of 600 I put out earlier. I was really hoping, that jesse will come back with an exact count of cars in the Jan 2017 footage for everyone's sake with his advanced math skills, which I suppose is much higher than my below 4th grade math skills Well, just more waiting till someone uploads the February drone footage.

This is just shameless bs. The video you refer to (conveniently NOT linked in your post) shows close to double of your estimate of 600 cars.

 

[Paracelsus]

Very cool!
Looking more closely at the mohammed bin rashid al maktoum solar park in Dubai, it is actually a mix of solar panels (200MW already completed), and concentrating solar power (not built yet).[/MEDIA]

Here is a pretty neat (and very short) video on YouTube that was posted over on LinkedIn showing how Concentrated Solar with Energy Storage works:

 

[vgrinshpun]

Bllomberg published an interesting article titled "After Trump fallout, Uber can't shake its Elon Musk Envy"

About Tesla brand:

The Tesla brand—and by extension, Musk’s—represents “a noble ambition: The vision is to make the world more sustainable by providing renewable energy sources, cars and battery sources,” Binns said. “Uber doesn’t have that. It’s not known for being a mission-driven organization.”

 

[sundaymorning]

Curious, how many cars are in parking lot of the Tesla killer, Faraday Future?

You'll Never Guess What Faraday Future Is Being Sued For Now

Apparently, FF can't even pay for their own domain name. You guys called it here first, FF is looking more like a scam everyday.

Faraday Future hits the brakes, scales back plans, shifts production to China

Seriously, building a quality EV shouldn't be that hard right?

 

[SteveG3]

I hate speculating like this but there are definitely connecting dots. UAE is building the world's largest solar farm. They sure could use some storage.

thinking first principles, this event tomorrow is very interesting...

when you consider the scale of battery supply needed globally to meet Musk's goals, leveraging oil wealth to finance the acceleration of sustainable energy seems a clear winner if that oil wealth can be persuaded to join this effort (obviously quite the if, but Elon is talking in Dubai tomorrow).

Basic math from the original GF1 numbers suggests the need of 200 GFs costing $1 trillion to convert all vehicle production to EVs. I realize that with new GF plans, that may be 70 GFs, costing an as yet unclear slimmed down number from the $1 trillion figure (really hoping an analyst asks for clarity on this during the next conference call. I've emailed IR on this, no response).

That's just for converting to supplying EVs rather than ICE to the auto market, rapidly approaching 100 million vehicles/year. My recollection is that at the solar rooftop event, Elon indicated that transformation of the energy grid to solar/battery would be a roughly equal size endeavor.

thus the funding numbers Elon thinks about as needed to achieve his goals are something like 140 GFs, costing something approaching $2 trillion.

the sovereign wealth funds of Norway and UAE (where Elon is speaking in 8 hours), alone, a little over the $2 trillion needed. motivation? Norway seems very motivated for green energy already, UAE and other oil rich nations... it might not be the future they would have written, but if they are facing the choices they do have, Elon's vision probably looks pretty good.

this scale of money dwarfs even what Apple, Google, and Samsung have together, or all the world's automakers combined have together. sovereign wealth funds seem like a far more promising candidate for a swift bold scale of investment than banks.

just having fun here... not looking for anything like a $100 billion commitment, much less a trillion dollar commitment this week. but, given the scale of the money these potential partners have, something like a $5 billion plan for a GF in partnership with UAE could be a first glimpse of a game changing strategic realignment in the energy world hitting the sweet spot of Tesla's mission.

 

[mmd]

Saudi Arabia's plan of 41 GW of solar power by 2032 has been delayed by 8 years. It is going through some budget shortfalls due to the low oil prices. The reason they cited is more research
Solar power in Saudi Arabia - Wikipedia
Saudi Arabia Delays $109 Billion Solar Plant by 8 Years

Neighbor UAE seems ahead in PV solar, with ~1.1 GW solar park to be completed by 2017.
Groundbreaking to commence on 800 MW solar plant in Dubai

But the price of solar keeps falling. Mexico recorded 1.8 GW solar at $26.99/MWh, the lowest price for any contract signed to date. UAE has received a bid at even lower price of $24.20/MWh. This site below seems very informative for solar projects around the world.
Also learnt here, that Solarcity brand will disappear. May be, I missed that news.
BREAKING: SolarCity brand to disappear

Mexico signs lowest-price solar contracts to date

Mexico signs lowest-price solar contracts to date
Contracts have been signed for 1.8 GW of solar in Mexico, including one contract at a price of US$26.99/MWh by Fotowatio. The median price for solar in this auction was around $31.70/MWh.

In total contracts for 1.8 GW of PV projects awarded in Mexico’s second Clean Energy Auction have been signed, according to Mexican solar association Asolmex. The median price for solar is around US$31.70 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in the auction, the lowest median price to date in the world.

The prices for individual contracts also hit a record low level for solar to date. Among the 16 PV projects awarded in this auction is a 300 MW project which FRV says reached a price of $26.99 per megawatt-hour. Before the signing of the contracts in this auction in Mexico, the lowest price for a solar power contract was above $29 per megawatt-hour.

However, in the next few months it will be possible to register a lower price for a solar power contract, as last September a bid was placed for a 350 MW solar project in Abu Dhabi at $24.20. According to local press, the signing of the contract is expected in March of this year.