Because most people have a conscience.
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Because most people have a conscience.
I hope I'm wrong about the general market but my political nose, evidenced only by my political nose, twitches in the direction of at least a 10 percent market plunge in the medium term, and perhaps at least a significant drop if not a real correction tomorrow. But I've been wrong about politics in the past and sure I will be again. We're really going into a macro economic and political world filled with long tails.
I remain bullish on democracy, however. The women's march and reaction to recent decisions by the government portend the possibility Nabobism will force us to care more for democracy. Educated young people seem to understand this already. As Herbert Marcuse said, "hope was invented for those who need it."
I remain long on Tesla and would never short it (not smart enough).
I remain bullish on democracy, however. The women's march and reaction to recent decisions by the government portend the possibility Nabobism will force us to care more for democracy. Educated young people seem to understand this already. As Herbert Marcuse said, "hope was invented for those who need it."
I remain long on Tesla and would never short it (not smart enough).
Couldn't agree more. It's a huge distraction. All tech companies are on this. Google, Microsoft and Facebook already reported that tens if not hundreds of their engineers are being affected directly and that they have instructed their legal department to take on the burden to get this resolved as best as possible. Tesla likely isn't different. While I wasn't negative with Elon on the council at first, I was hoping it would focus on issues that impact Tesla directly like removing barriers to American manufacturing. If the council is really a backstop on all things stupid at the federal level, well... Elon better brings his sleeping bag to the oval office.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Elon starting the Boring Company now tells me Model 3 must be on track. It would be hard to explain to shareholders why he thinks it's ok to divert his attention if the Model 3 program was having issues.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
This is my gut feel as well.
Watching the slow-moving policy trainwreck unfold this weekend, with acknowledgement that DHS, DoD, DoS, and DoJ were not even consulted before making the most radical change in immigration policy in the US in over 50 years, plus the removal of the Joints Chief and DNI from the national security council, suggets when the administration gets on to matters of economic and trade policy we should expect more ham-fisted, consequences-be-damned behavior.
This has me preparing for some major portfolio rebalancing and SPY put purchasing.
This week will be extremely telling for how the market reacts. Good luck everyone.
everman
Member
I always hear Sam Jackson in my head when it comes to this...
"Hold on to your butts..."
you did not follow my posts last week... i'd normally not post this sort of thing... but there's the idea that my opinion is being swayed by my losses... I made 3 multi-100% trades last week for very good gains. I'm way up for Jan... my opinions are typically not driven by whether or not I've had a loss that day... money comes and goes.
Following up on my recent concern about tomorrow's market and beyond, here is a clearer written picture of Larry Summers' concern about the economy (a bit more elaborate than the Davos forum video).
http://larrysummers.com/2017/01/17/economy-under-trump-plan-for-the-worst/
If I were a rich man—Theodore Bickel music here—I'd kick some butts.
http://larrysummers.com/2017/01/17/economy-under-trump-plan-for-the-worst/
If I were a rich man—Theodore Bickel music here—I'd kick some butts.
The whole mess we are living in is due to rich man kickin' some butts.
Now is just the time that kicking is going in a bit different directions.
Net result is of course the sky is falling ...
Now is just the time that kicking is going in a bit different directions.
Net result is of course the sky is falling ...
They are the ones who made scads of money selling overpriced homes to people who couldn't afford them.
Not to try to move the thread back on target (wouldn't want to turn the Titanic with this small rudder) but I found this to be an interesting article on energy storage. Some good information about different projects, but if "the street" evidence is that energy storage is still at $500....well, it's not. Still baffles me that most people's data is years behind.
"The total installed cost of a battery plant would need to fall to about $275 per kilowatt hour. While Tesla declined to provide its pricing data, the similarly sized Altagas project was expected to cost at least $40 million, or $500 per kilowatt hour."
Tesla’s Battery Revolution Just Reached Critical Mass
So, if the $500kWh number is right, then all the nay-sayers are correct and Tesla will lose just over $100/ powerwall, since it is priced at $393/kWh.....another Tesla product that loses money!!! Eeeeek! Sell!
Tesla Powerwall 2 has no competition – comparison with LG Resu and SonnenBatterie
Or alternatively, you could assume 50% margins for Tesla Powerwall once production ramps and pack costs of <$200, in which case you are magically below the $275/kWh that BNEF says is needed for storage to take off. Numbers and math, so interesting, so misunderstood.
"The total installed cost of a battery plant would need to fall to about $275 per kilowatt hour. While Tesla declined to provide its pricing data, the similarly sized Altagas project was expected to cost at least $40 million, or $500 per kilowatt hour."
Tesla’s Battery Revolution Just Reached Critical Mass
So, if the $500kWh number is right, then all the nay-sayers are correct and Tesla will lose just over $100/ powerwall, since it is priced at $393/kWh.....another Tesla product that loses money!!! Eeeeek! Sell!
Tesla Powerwall 2 has no competition – comparison with LG Resu and SonnenBatterie
Or alternatively, you could assume 50% margins for Tesla Powerwall once production ramps and pack costs of <$200, in which case you are magically below the $275/kWh that BNEF says is needed for storage to take off. Numbers and math, so interesting, so misunderstood.
disagree
hos epi to polu
I completely understand the action of "sitting at the table". Surrounding idiots with smart people is a positive in my eyes. Pragmatism is reasonable. We need more Tim Cooks and Elon Musks than we need Bannons.
Alas Musk went a step further with the unnecessary support of Tillerson. That's where I worried he might have stepped a bit over the line. As people realize the actual impotence they have in stopping Twitler, they will vest even more importance in micro-moves like cancelling accounts, brand-attacking, and boycotting. Tesla was virgin pure to the left. And now Elon is holding an ink dropper right above it, and he better hope his little spill doesn't hit.
Not to try to move the thread back on target (wouldn't want to turn the Titanic with this small rudder) but I found this to be an interesting article on energy storage. Some good information about different projects, but if "the street" evidence is that energy storage is still at $500....well, it's not. Still baffles me that most people's data is years behind.
"The total installed cost of a battery plant would need to fall to about $275 per kilowatt hour. While Tesla declined to provide its pricing data, the similarly sized Altagas project was expected to cost at least $40 million, or $500 per kilowatt hour."
Tesla’s Battery Revolution Just Reached Critical Mass
So, if the $500kWh number is right, then all the nay-sayers are correct and Tesla will lose just over $100/ powerwall, since it is priced at $393/kWh.....another Tesla product that loses money!!! Eeeeek! Sell!
Tesla Powerwall 2 has no competition – comparison with LG Resu and SonnenBatterie
Or alternatively, you could assume 50% margins for Tesla Powerwall once production ramps and pack costs of <$200, in which case you are magically below the $275/kWh that BNEF says is needed for storage to take off. Numbers and math, so interesting, so misunderstood.
The total installed cost for the BES system could be 2x of the cost of the batteries. The ratio of total installed cost to the cost of battery is also significantly different for PowerPack based project as compared to PowerWall. I think that you are comparing apple and oranges.
Few thoughts, I have not a systematic opinion:
* not everyone understand how EM thinks. His pragmatism, his borderline-autistic logic, his comfort in numbers and match and physics and logic. This is a minus when people are heated and yelling on Twitter and emotionally reacting to one another. People don't really *think*, on social media, they tend to let their emotions flow. So, in such a confused moment, it's very likely that a "tweet of reason" won't do much.
* EM is a different billionaire. Yes, he's one of the elites: he has a private jet, a few villas, he has tons of money, he's producing more CO2 than 99% of the rest of the planet... but he's doing a lot of good things for the planet. He aims for a back-up planet for human race, and has a capitalistic way for the salvation of the Earth via sustainable energy. People tend to vaguely understand this. So the fact that he's in good friends with Thiel and now Trump are ok with me, as long as he's working towards these goals. If Elon produced shoes or ICEs, I would have invested in another company. Yes, I'm here for the money - but for the goal too. To me, the are equally important.
So the fact that people frame him as "different" is politically crucial: he's talking with Trump, yes, but it's for the best. He's saying good things about Tillerson, yes, but from the pragmatic point of view that a SoS like him should engage in a carbon tax.
Unfortunately, Trump is a vindicative man, and that's probably the reason why Elon (an immigrant) had such a lukewarm tweet against the MuslimBan. He want's to say something, but just not too harsh. He wants to stay in the important position he's in now.
All this rant is to say that things will be difficult: Trump is a liability to US, to human decency and to world security, and we're just 10 days in. Elon will have an hard time to be pictured as a "cooperative good guy" if Trumps keeps doing what he does.
M2c, of course.
* not everyone understand how EM thinks. His pragmatism, his borderline-autistic logic, his comfort in numbers and match and physics and logic. This is a minus when people are heated and yelling on Twitter and emotionally reacting to one another. People don't really *think*, on social media, they tend to let their emotions flow. So, in such a confused moment, it's very likely that a "tweet of reason" won't do much.
* EM is a different billionaire. Yes, he's one of the elites: he has a private jet, a few villas, he has tons of money, he's producing more CO2 than 99% of the rest of the planet... but he's doing a lot of good things for the planet. He aims for a back-up planet for human race, and has a capitalistic way for the salvation of the Earth via sustainable energy. People tend to vaguely understand this. So the fact that he's in good friends with Thiel and now Trump are ok with me, as long as he's working towards these goals. If Elon produced shoes or ICEs, I would have invested in another company. Yes, I'm here for the money - but for the goal too. To me, the are equally important.
So the fact that people frame him as "different" is politically crucial: he's talking with Trump, yes, but it's for the best. He's saying good things about Tillerson, yes, but from the pragmatic point of view that a SoS like him should engage in a carbon tax.
Unfortunately, Trump is a vindicative man, and that's probably the reason why Elon (an immigrant) had such a lukewarm tweet against the MuslimBan. He want's to say something, but just not too harsh. He wants to stay in the important position he's in now.
All this rant is to say that things will be difficult: Trump is a liability to US, to human decency and to world security, and we're just 10 days in. Elon will have an hard time to be pictured as a "cooperative good guy" if Trumps keeps doing what he does.
M2c, of course.
StapleGun
Member
Elon is a billionaire, lives in a $17 million house in bel air.
Has bought 4 other properties nearby for a total of over $70 million.
Some here may find that problematic, I am indifferent.
I would use the purchases as a confidence signal.
Has bought 4 other properties nearby for a total of over $70 million.
Some here may find that problematic, I am indifferent.
I would use the purchases as a confidence signal.
Krugerrand
Meow
*yawn*
I've heard this story before. No plot twist involved. When all is said and done people will conveniently forget that they proclaimed 'sky falling' and it didn't.
On topic: Tesla following the market today.
Thanks. A little sloppy, was in a hurry this morning. From doing the Powerpack math (happy for any corrections) it looks to be priced at $428/kWh retail ($1.8 million for 4200kWh system)....which would still lead to either a) They are loosing $72/kWh installed at a pack project cost of $500/kWh, or their COGS is south of $200 kWh as many here believe, and they should be pretty close to the $275kWh battery plant cost quoted. Maybe Bloomberg New Energy Finance means $275 total cost with 30% margins.
Read the article and totally missed this. I wonder if that is an old quote, or rather he means no TE revenue breakout for years from now. Would be worth a follow up. Even at current levels, still looks like revenue in the $100s of Millions for 2017, would surprise me if they didn't break that out.
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