2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Ovulation]

Did joining the WTO accelerate China's growth? The government certainly wanted admission but are there any economic studies settling the question you raise? I dunno nuttin.

IMO Chinas growth accelerated because they unleashed capitalism, a state supervised capitalism, it has little to do with the WHO, I would argue they are so successful because the played the WHO way better than other 3 world countries, but no I don't have any hard data to prove it, I just read some (arguable to many) leftist books, Marx and stuff.

 

[SteveG3]

Funny definition of "want to buy" given that the US Big-3 is now the Big-2+ Italian, GM recently went bankrupt and GM + Ford have done nothing but lose share for 40years. Of course they make full size pickups that are basically exempt from safety and pollution rules so "Sucess!!!"

W-E-A-K

as I understand it, the pickups are protected by a 25% tariff on imports,

Chicken tax - Wikipedia

 

[kenliles]

This guy never has a single nice thing to say. The worst reporter I know.

It's all extremely subjective of course and as a member of the advisory committee(s), EM statements are cast through a particularly fine prism;

However, this synopsis from Verge provides a reasonable rating assessment for the relative strength of statements and positions taken by the various Silicon Valley companies-
categories of Strong, Medium, Weak
Places Tesla/EM in the medium group-
arguably about where they should be with a firmly pragmatic leader, albeit with strong human rights objectives.

I think Elon handled this one about right personally, even while I believe the most difficult tests are yet to come...
Silicon Valley’s responses to Trump’s immigration executive orders, from strongest to weakest

 

[MitchJi]

Yes, black children in DC and New Orleans taking vouchers to Catholic schools to escape failed government schools is a big money maker for the Vatican.

Trump university:
Trump is paying $25 million to put the Trump University fiasco behind him. Here's why we shouldn't let him.

Most of the press was preoccupied last week with a New York theater audience’s spontaneous decision to tell Vice President-elect Mike Pencewhat it thought of his record as a crusader against women’s reproductive and LGBT rights. But the real news about the incoming administration was being made in court.

That’s where lawyers for President-elect Donald Trump reached a $25-million settlement of three lawsuits over Trump University. Trump depicted the settlement on Twitter as a victory.

"I settled the Trump University lawsuit for a small fraction of the potential award because as President I have to focus on our country," he wrote Saturday morning.

one of the lawsuits, would disagree that the settlement is “a small fraction of the potential award.” New York estimated that Trump University defrauded thousands of customers of an estimated total $40 million, and that Trump may personally have pocketed $5 million in profit. So the settlement comes to 62.5% of the total collected in the alleged scam and five times Trump’s own alleged take. Nuisance lawsuits typically are settled for small potatoes, but a settlement of nearly two-thirds of the claim doesn’t fit into that category. It’s a sign that Trump faced genuine liability in these cases.
<Snip>

Alternative facts!

 

[Intl Professor]

Surprise! I have something on topic, a recent bit from MIT News:

Better wisdom from crowds

"The new method is simple. For a given question, people are asked two things: What they think the right answer is, and what they think popular opinion will be. The variation between the two aggregate responses indicates the correct answer."

Read, it's clear and surprising. There's also something about experts and segmenting of crowds which also works. But here's the relevance for you all smart guys, and gals on topic:

1) Pro or con we are knowledgeable about Tesla Motors; 2) pro or con we want to beat the crowd of investors with the correct answer; 3) suppose some TMCer starts an opinion survey answering some simple paired questions, like "will the stock price go up this month?" and "what is the likelihood our group will get the right answer?"; 3) the TMC researcher then applies the "surprisingly popular" algorithm and we then test it here and now regarding the effectiveness of the technique in a dry run; 4) then we test at first with small purchases or sales. Whose game? I've seen this done before with vinn numbers, etc. As my youngest answered when I asked him if he believed in Baptism, "hell dad, I've seen it done."

This is not a contest to see who is right and it should be anonymous with some kind of protection to ensure no one tries to game the system, though the article deals with that problem. I'm wary of actual money, because I have none, but also of violating gaming laws. So let's be careful to keep this a research tool, and probably anonymous. I'm sure some of you will beat the house, er, market.

 

[kenliles]

Elon asking for input
Elon Musk on Twitter

"Please read immigration order. Lmk specific amendments. Will seek advisory council consensus & present to President."

 

[AcesDealt]

Elon is getting political on twitter again. Makes me a bit nervous because of the propensity for people to get mindlessly angry in the face of truth or complexity, but aside from my investment i welcome people like him being involved.

 

[MikeC]

Apart from the injustice of the order and how much pain it is causing innocent people...now it's distracting Elon from Tesla. Not good.

 

[WarpedOne]

In a mud fight, everyone is dirty.

 

[madodel]

Some argue that the developing world would be better of today when they had developed like the US and Europe also Japan with protectionism, China comes in mind. I see the globalization only as an attempt from the elites to let the lower classes outcompete each other, to lower wages and get the surplus in their pockets. This Brazilian guy seems to believe the neoliberal narrative, I certainly don't.

Can't speak for Brazil, Europe or any country outside the US, but here the rich have taken almost all the wealth destroying the middle class and blaming the poor for getting a tiny bit they barely survive on, saying that really is what belongs for the middle class to fight over. I grew up moderately poor, got a pretty much government paid decent education and managed to have a successful career, married well and made a couple of really good investments. I'm doing well at the moment. I have no complaint in paying taxes because it means I have been successful and I believe in maintaining and supporting society. We are now paying the price for all the stupid tax cuts for the rich which has sucked all the life out of society and destroyed our middle class and the ability for people to improve their lives.

Many of the people who voted definitely are unhappy and wanted change, but the change they are getting is a hyperbolic change in the completely wrong direction. I just don't see how the children of middle class families and the working poor can do what I was able to do 40+ years ago. I can afford to pay for my children's college, but most people no longer can. It is destroying the professional and management class that they have huge education loans and the poor are working multiple jobs just to barely survive. All this rigidity in social classes and the accumulation of all the wealth with just a few families is going to lead to a genuine explosion at some point. The elites are mostly all greedy idiots who can't grasp the threat that is coming. Musk is one of the few who isn't.

 

[AcesDealt]

The vast majority of the wealth owned by the rich go into various equity investments which helps capitalize companies that the rich think are efficient and have a strong future. I would be more concerned about consumption inequality but that never fits the agenda and that's never discussed. Consumption is more a measure of burden on others. People seem to treat the possession of wealth as a first principle wrong and i think it's just one of those social hallucinations of average thinkers.

 

[EinSV]

This guy never has a single nice thing to say. The worst reporter I know.

Charley Grant is an honors graduate of the Bertel Schmitt and Edward Niedermeyer School of Tesla journalism. His Twitter exchanges make his open anti-Tesla bias very clear.

 

[3Victoria]

So your argument is that the rich are being generous by investing in companies? The poor and middle class can't afford to invest, since they spend all their money on food and shelter. If one doesn't think that (excess) money is not a huge advantage, then why don't the rich just donate half their wealth to the rest of their countrymen? --- it wouldn't put a dent in the rich peoples' standard of living. This is the exact problem that is being discussed ... the rich think they are somehow 'better' than the rest, and that the rest should pull themselves up by their bootstraps (if they can afford them).

 

[Ameliorate]

Elon live talking about tunnels @ hyperloop competition. Trying to increase tunneling speed by 500-1000% this is the key to road tunnels, hyperloop tunnels, train tunnels. To get more traffic moving we need to go 3D, either up or down, probably down. Congratulated hyperloop teams, left politics out of his time on the stage today. Talked a lot more about tunnels than hyperloop.

 

[tlo]

I had a dream last night of peaking into Elon's secret laboratory. There were depictions of Model Y, Model 2, and Model 4. The Model 2 is a "slim version". The Model 4 "includes free access to tunnels". Then there was a masterplan of an underground tunnel network being built across LA. (I know - doesn't make sense but in my dream I had my mind blown.)

The stock was trading at 270. When I rushed to place a limit order at 275, the stock had jumped to 280.

I woke up thinking I should buy some more shares. Feels like either an epiphany or I'm losing my sanity.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Elon is getting political on twitter again. Makes me a bit nervous because of the propensity for people to get mindlessly angry in the face of truth or complexity, but aside from my investment i welcome people like him being involved.

Elon isn't getting political. Executive Order, Trump selected Elon to be part of his "Advisory Council". Hopefully Trump will listen very closely to the advice from the Advisory Council. There is almost zero probability Trump wrote the executive order. I suspect the proper channels will be used to modify, retract most of, or replace the executive order, and Trump will possibly try to take credit for whatever happens.

Two of Donald Trump’s senior advisors — neither of whom has any previous government or legal experience — have reportedly been writing executive orders without any input from the agencies they would affect.

Aides told Politico that Steve Bannon, the president’s chief strategist, and Stephen Miller, the senior White House advisor for policy, have made almost no effort to consult with federal agency lawyers or lawmakers as they wrote executive orders.

Ex-Breitbart Alt-Nazi promoter Steve Bannon is author of Trump's executive orders
Trump’s ex-Breitbart advisor Bannon is drafting executive orders – and basically winging it: report

I am confident Trump will have to change the Executive Order to reflect the many many many legal challenges it has already received, and will receive. Who knows? Maybe the final version of the Executive Order will only include a small portion of the original document, and will ultimately mean very few if any changes to the way things worked before the Executive Order was signed.

Elon very clearly has the best interest of the public (the world) at heart, and is in a unique position to create hundreds of thousands of jobs in the USA, and the rest of the world. It should come as no surprise that Trump made him an important part of his advisory team.

Elon being a part of Trump's advisory council does not mean Elon agrees with everything or anything Trump says. Perhaps it's best to think of Trump as a (child emperor?) who made some crazy promises while campaigning, and is following through (or at least making it look like he is following through) with most of his campaign promises. Maybe this is so Trump can tell those who voted for him that he followed through on every promise, with the expectation that they will learn to respect the phrase "be careful what you wish for"?

Let's be glad (hope) Trump is serious about taking advice from his Advisory Council, specifically the Strategic and Policy Forum, which consists of very smart experienced people, who have the interest of the public (the world) at heart, and know how to best invest trillions of dollars, and design good policy. The alternative is too horrible to imagine.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Question: Did I just hear the "SpaceX pusher" uses 2 Model S engines?

 

[eloder]

So your argument is that the rich are being generous by investing in companies? The poor and middle class can't afford to invest, since they spend all their money on food and shelter. If one doesn't think that (excess) money is not a huge advantage, then why don't the rich just donate half their wealth to the rest of their countrymen? --- it wouldn't put a dent in the rich peoples' standard of living. This is the exact problem that is being discussed ... the rich think they are somehow 'better' than the rest, and that the rest should pull themselves up by their bootstraps (if they can afford them).

Yup.

And also not to get too offtopic, but even the most socialist modernized countries still have about a 100 to 1 income gap between the lowest workers and the top workers in the average company. They still make more in one day than most workers make in an entire year. That's still pretty filthy rich. America widens that income gap to a 400 to 1 difference, yet that unsurprisingly does not translate into 4x more investments, 4x more job creation by the super-rich, or 4x more dollars being pumped back into the economy.

America was at its most prosperous when top marginal tax rates were well over 75%, similar to other countries around the world that in today's time have stolen the highest quality of life titles from us.

How this relates to TSLA: even minor tax increases on the super-rich can indirectly give the middle class more money to buy Model 3's, and our super-rich would still be over three times more wealthy than their counterparts in the rest of the world. For example, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates significant financial burdens from the repeal of the ACA, which likely will make or break a Model 3 purchasing decision for many middle class folk. It's something to watch out for longer-term.

 

[Intl Professor]

I woke up thinking I should buy some more shares. Feels like either an epiphany or I'm losing my sanity.

Few of us can tell them apart. Twenty-seven years ago in my last drunk I put out an imaginary fire in my house with a real water hose. (Simultaneously I was elected president of the homeowners' association board—a comment on the available pool of talent.) Later, as a volunteer spreading the message of a twelve step program to inmates in the county mental ward I told the story. One of the inmates asked: "how can you tell the difference between a real and an imaginary fire?" I didn't have the prescience to repeat the tale of the weatherman blooper on an Alaskan radio program, "now I'll take a leak outside to see if its freezing."

Edit: All humor aside, wondering is already there.

 

[AcesDealt]

So your argument is that the rich are being generous by investing in companies? The poor and middle class can't afford to invest, since they spend all their money on food and shelter. If one doesn't think that (excess) money is not a huge advantage, then why don't the rich just donate half their wealth to the rest of their countrymen? --- it wouldn't put a dent in the rich peoples' standard of living. This is the exact problem that is being discussed ... the rich think they are somehow 'better' than the rest, and that the rest should pull themselves up by their bootstraps (if they can afford them).

Your entire response from the first sentence has almost nothing to do with what I wrote. Try to think outside of your normal thought patterns a bit. It's also ludicrously inaccurate and cognitively motivated that you ridicule rich people as lacking the self-awareness to realize they were lucky and\or advantaged. On average they are smarter than you probably plus they seem to like to meditate and roll in guilt.

It would be far better than instead of caricaturing the 'rich' as evil and entitled we supported the efforts which frequently do come out of that class to find efficient ways to service those less fortunate with their own money and time.

How this relates to TSLA: even minor tax increases on the super-rich can indirectly give the middle class more money to buy Model 3's, and our super-rich would still be over three times more wealthy than their counterparts in the rest of the world.

This line of thought is derivative and unprincipled. How do we know the world is better off if we take from achievers to subsidize the purchase of fancier cars? The problem with this kind of populism is there are simply more people in the non-rich category to write memes and provide social reinforcement of bad ideas.