2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Waiting4M3]

See, this is my entire point. Current performance is dismissed as irrelevant. Only future goals are important. And when those future goals are missed, who cares. There is no reflection about how current performance may influence future performance. Missing the 2017 cost reduction target does not have to mean Tesla will also miss its 2018, 2019 and 2020 cost reduction targets. But it is disingenuous saying that there is no link at all.

It's the same cycle all over every time. Like today the forum is full of discussion on the 7ct/kWh energy cost. How Tesla will put millions off panels next to each megacharger with hundreds of power packs etc. Fine by me to speculate. But then also have the courage to revisit the issue in 2-3 years. Are the mega chargers there in numbers we imagined. Is it likely with their then setup that the cost for electricity in their setup at that point is below 7ct? (Without resorting to "yeah but in 2022 they will below 5ct") Etc... Those questions are important too.



I sincerely disagree. Past and current performance indicates that Tesla is on track of missing those targets.

If you want to be fair, lets not dismiss Tesla pulling IN the M3 high volume production target from 2020 to 2018. Shall we revisit this 2-3 years out and see how it played out?

 

[geneclean55]

Now that non-employee configurator is open has anyone set up a model 3 delivery and ordering google spread sheet?

 

[Waiting4M3]

The one thing that I don't see much discussion on now is "the machines that build the machines". This was 1st mentioned almost 1 year ago in Q3'16 ER call, and Elon mentioned by 2018 the M3 production line will look like Alien Dreadnought. We've seen glimpses of this in the overhead body conveyor in Fremont factory, the robots installing seats and dash on the M3. But I think there are a lot more to this. Think about the 2 automation companies that they bought, the 3x increase in new battery module assembly line design once they realized the external supplier was not working. I think Tesla is just starting out to learn what they can do in production automation, M3 production automation is at the stage that is equivalent of the original Roadster. Imagine what the MS equivalent of the Alien Dreadnought will be in 5 years, or the Roadster #2 equivalent in 10 years.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The one thing that I don't see much discussion on now is "the machines that build the machines". This was 1st mentioned almost 1 year ago in Q3'16 ER call, and Elon mentioned by 2018 the M3 production line will look like Alien Dreadnought. We've seen glimpses of this in the overhead body conveyor in Fremont factory, the robots installing seats and dash on the M3. But I think there are a lot more to this. Think about the 2 automation companies that they bought, the 3x increase in new battery module assembly line design once they realized the external supplier was not working. I think Tesla is just starting out to learn what they can do in production automation, M3 production automation is at the stage that is equivalent of the original Roadster. Imagine what the MS equivalent of the Alien Dreadnought will be in 5 years, or the Roadster #2 equivalent in 10 years.

My guess is that Elon realised that he needs to shut up about this because it is likely going to be one if if not the most valuable parts of the company. A 10x improvement in manufacturing would lead to an unassailable lead in vehicle cost. Also, it would be a large moat becuase other companies would take significant amounts of time to be able to innovate in the same way, all why they have to either lose money or sell more expensive vehicles.

 

[3Victoria]

Now that non-employee configurator is open has anyone set up a model 3 delivery and ordering google spread sheet?

See: Model 3 invites to configure

 

[Starno]

See: Model 3 invites to configure

How did you get that ?

 

[dc_h]

We are not suppose to talk about this topic but since everyone else is I'll chime in. I have a long ignore list, I don't like trolls and I don't like negative nellies. You mean things may not go as planned? Gee, thanks for harping on that day in and day out.....no thanks.

I don't make my investing decisions based on what is said on TMC alone, I bought my initial TSLA shares before I knew this forum existed. I do come here for enjoyment and entertainment.

I wish everyone would learn that there is no changing the trolls minds or "beating" them in an argument, they don't care about facts and truth. Stop responding to them and they will eventually get bored or assume everyone has them on ignore and leave.

I’m hating the game neless hand wringing as well, but some social media people are paid professionals. They are paid to sidetrack and derail dialog. One person on the site seems to be more or less a full time commentator on the site. Prior to banning a poster, it would be nice if they could provide some proof of their backstory. Are they really just a passionate Tesla hater, or a professional provocateur. I don’t think popularity should be an arbiter or right or wrong, but if someone is here under false pretenses it should not be too hard to prove.

 

[JRP3]

Prior to banning a poster, it would be nice if they could provide some proof of their backstory.

If their behavior is consistently disruptive their backstory and motivation don't matter. They need to go, period.

 

[dc_h]

If their behavior is consistently disruptive their backstory and motivation don't matter. They need to go, period.

There is a big difference between myusername and mmd. MU is a trader. I could have made a lot of money listening to him this year. I disagree about his long term view and disbelief that Tesla has a valuation based on future profits. I think Tesla will keep growing at least 50% yoy for 7 more years or more. I think mmd is either a permanent short or has some paid poster. If he is, the mods can have a quick pm with him to prove he just represents himself. His views could support Putin, the Koch’s, or any number of capitalists in the china shop Elon is bounding through. I don’t want to accuse anyone of impropriety, but it seems reasonable for mods to get some verification of independence. Personally it would be nice if there was some sort of PayPal type service that could provide a metadata background check to block fake users and bots.

I think I’m walking on thin ice with my post. I apologize in advance if I’ve broken any rules or policies. I hope someone shuts this discussion down soon. The thread is nearly useless and the source of our discontent is either sitting back and enjoying the fire, or taking a long weekend.

I personally won’t post on this subject again.

 

[Cosmacelf]

My guess is that Elon realised that he needs to shut up about this because it is likely going to be one if if not the most valuable parts of the company. A 10x improvement in manufacturing would lead to an unassailable lead in vehicle cost. Also, it would be a large moat becuase other companies would take significant amounts of time to be able to innovate in the same way, all why they have to either lose money or sell more expensive vehicles.

I suspect that the Model 3 battery pack line in the Gigafactory was very highly automated indeed and Tesla (through their outsourced contractor) screwed it up royally. They are now trying to rewrite huge amounts of software code in a matter of weeks. This is a disaster that will take a long while to completely fix. I think this is why we aren’t hearing much chest thumping about it.

 

[mongo]

I suspect that the Model 3 battery pack line in the Gigafactory was very highly automated indeed and Tesla (through their outsourced contractor) screwed it up royally. They are now trying to rewrite huge amounts of software code in a matter of weeks. This is a disaster that will take a long while to completely fix. I think this is why we aren’t hearing much chest thumping about it.

Code was fixed, hardware takes longer.
From the Q3 earnings call transcript Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha:
"The zones three and four are in good shape, zones one and two are not. Zone two in particular, we had a subcontractor, a systems integration subcontractor, that unfortunately really dropped the ball, and we did not realize the degree to which the ball was dropped until quite recently, and this is a very complex manufacturing area. We had to rewrite all of the software from scratch, and redo many of the mechanical and electrical elements of zone two of module production.

We've managed to rewrite what was about 20 to 30 man years of software in four weeks, but there's still a long way to go. Because the software working with the electromechanical elements need to be fabricated and installed, and getting those atoms in place and rebuilt is, unfortunately, a lot longer, and has far more external constraints, than software."

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

And possibly improved cooling efficiency?

That would go towards reducing the pack costs

If their behavior is consistently disruptive their backstory and motivation don't matter. They need to go, period.

Can I suggest the moderators be given a "squelch" button? If a poster has earned enough negative ratings or requests to be banned by the community, then the moderators can simply "squelch" (a blanket ignore) the poster for a fixed amount of time? It would be the equivalent of a temporary ban, but with the exception that they'll have to waste a bit of their own time before realizing that they've been squelched.

Otherwise, I agree that an outright ban won't solve the problem, since they can create new accounts to continue trolling.

 

[bambam4171]

The one thing that I don't see much discussion on now is "the machines that build the machines". This was 1st mentioned almost 1 year ago in Q3'16 ER call, and Elon mentioned by 2018 the M3 production line will look like Alien Dreadnought. We've seen glimpses of this in the overhead body conveyor in Fremont factory, the robots installing seats and dash on the M3. But I think there are a lot more to this. Think about the 2 automation companies that they bought, the 3x increase in new battery module assembly line design once they realized the external supplier was not working. I think Tesla is just starting out to learn what they can do in production automation, M3 production automation is at the stage that is equivalent of the original Roadster. Imagine what the MS equivalent of the Alien Dreadnought will be in 5 years, or the Roadster #2 equivalent in 10 years.

But only Version 0.5
How To Make 500,000 Cars Without Humans

I think he also said, that for model 3 it will still only have automation level same as other advanced manufacturers any only model Y would be full Alien Dreadnought

 

[Twiddler]

That would go towards reducing the pack costs


Can I suggest the moderators be given a "squelch" button? If a poster has earned enough negative ratings or requests to be banned by the community, then the moderators can simply "squelch" (a blanket ignore) the poster for a fixed amount of time? It would be the equivalent of a temporary ban, but with the exception that they'll have to waste a bit of their own time before realizing that they've been squelched.

Otherwise, I agree that an outright ban won't solve the problem, since they can create new accounts to continue trolling.

A la Black Mirror?

 

[hobbes]

World´s largest battery charging at 30MW:
Hornsdale Power Reserve (a.k.a. “the world’s biggest battery”) begins to charge, and also discharges for the first time on Saturday

 

[schonelucht]

Now that non-employee configurator is open has anyone set up a model 3 delivery and ordering google spread sheet?

Yes. Link : Model 3 invites to configure

How did you get that ?

I suspect by reading the Model 3 threads in the hope to find out a little bit more on what is really happening?

 

[JRP3]

The thread is nearly useless

Discussing an ongoing problem which has not been corrected is actually useful IMO. Maybe some action will be taken.

Otherwise, I agree that an outright ban won't solve the problem, since they can create new accounts to continue trolling.

This keeps being repeated but I can assure you it is not the case. Over the years a number of people have been banned successfully, even a few who kept trying to come back. They always end up exposing themselves and get banned again and eventually give up and go away. The key is to be consistent and keep smacking them down. I've been here long enough to know that not only does banning work the apparent refusal to use it when needed is a more recent and unfortunate development. Quite simply the quality of the board has been diminished, not improved, by allowing disruptive elements to remain.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I sincerely doubt the Model Y will even have its initial unveil until the Model 3 passes the 5,000 copies a week mark. Both the semi and Roadster are low volume. The Model Y will need to be high volume like the Model 3, so I don’t think they will stick their neck out until Model 3 production issues are ironed out.

I don't disagree. I expect we'll see 5K/wk reached by April or May. I don't believe they will wait very long after that before a Y reveal, so that suggests end of Q2 or early Q3.
It could be argued that opening Y for reservations could lead many M3 reservations to switch over to Y, but I doubt many who have waited all this time to get their M3 are going to defer 2 more years to get a Y instead. Not when it will be so easy to sell your M3 once your MY reservation comes up.

 

[Bobfitz1]

The one thing that I don't see much discussion on now is "the machines that build the machines". This was 1st mentioned almost 1 year ago in Q3'16 ER call, and Elon mentioned by 2018 the M3 production line will look like Alien Dreadnought. We've seen glimpses of this in the overhead body conveyor in Fremont factory, the robots installing seats and dash on the M3. M3 production automation is at the stage that is equivalent of the original Roadster. Imagine what the MS equivalent of the Alien Dreadnought will be in 5 years, or the Roadster #2 equivalent in 10 years.

Say what? There was no production automation for the original roadster. Lotus built the 2400 gliders and Tesla hand assembled to add motor, battery etc. As you described, M3 production line is a substantial step up in complexity and speed from the S/X assembly line.

 

[AlMc]

EM: Please read and consider: Elon Musk Needs His Own Tim Cook to Take Over Tesla’s Operations


Thanks: Your friend, AlMc