2014 Supercharger predictions ?!?!?!?

[emupilot]

Where do you get that there are 136 permitted already (see post #16, above)? We do not know that. Just because there is a dot on Tesla's map of coming soon locations and 2014 locations does not mean they have actual permits for those spots. In fact, Tesla has made it clear that the dots are just approximate locations, and could change based upon actual installation locations that are ultimately selected for permitting and construction. Supercharger.info shows there are 12 locations in the U.S. in which permits have been issued (as of 9/29/2014). Granted, they may not know of every permit that has been issued to Tesla for a SC, but it is highly unlikely that they are unaware of 124 issued permits (in the U.S.).

"136 permitted" = operational + under construction + in permitting. It's actually 137 now with the addition of Big Timber, Montana.

 

[swegman]

The way it was phrased gave the impression that there were 136 permits issued for new construction, and that is how you were getting to a goal of 275 SC by end of 2014. As far as we know, there are 11 SC under construction in the US, with 12 (now 13?) additional sites where permits have been issued but construction has not begun. Adding these to the 113 US SC sites that are operational results in a projected total of 136 or 137 SC sites in operation in the US IF every location under construction is completed by end of 2014 AND IF construction of the 12 or 13 sites for which permits have been issued are started and completed by the end of 2014. This falls short of Tesla's projection of having 200 or 201 sites in the US operational by the end of 2014, which appears to be due to Tesla's recent efforts to built up the SC network in Europe and Asia (similar to the recent emphasis on shipping new cars to the European and Asian markets at the "expense" of the US market).

 

[iadbound]

Tesla's supercharger map is certainly optimistic at this point. It's also difficult to predict how Tesla may approach the last quarter because, as swegman points out, Tesla has a lot more balls in the supercharger air than it did in Oct. 2013. On top of that, Tesla seems to have a habit of suddenly building a supercharger where no one expects it.

The year end result will almost certainly disappoint some, but I think this expansion is still an impressive achievement, and I look forward to a lot more in 2015 and beyond.

One question, are the charging units a sole source production item? If so, it begs the question of just how many can even be produced and shipped by the end of 2014.

 

[Kevin Harney]

The way it was phrased gave the impression that there were 136 permits issued for new construction, and that is how you were getting to a goal of 275 SC by end of 2014. As far as we know, there are 11 SC under construction in the US, with 12 (now 13?) additional sites where permits have been issued but construction has not begun. Adding these to the 113 US SC sites that are operational results in a projected total of 136 or 137 SC sites in operation in the US IF every location under construction is completed by end of 2014 AND IF construction of the 12 or 13 sites for which permits have been issued are started and completed by the end of 2014. This falls short of Tesla's projection of having 200 or 201 sites in the US operational by the end of 2014, which appears to be due to Tesla's recent efforts to built up the SC network in Europe and Asia (similar to the recent emphasis on shipping new cars to the European and Asian markets at the "expense" of the US market).

That is sort of fair. But I explained that in a later post after your question. What I am saying is that there will be 300 operational in the WORLD by year end and 160 in the US (not NA). We already know of the exact location for 247 and 139 so introducing 50 and 20 more is not that big of a leap. Possibly more challenging to FINISH them but I think it can be done. Last year at this time we had a large push and I think more were completed than that.

 

[macpacheco]

Worst case, there should be 300 operational worldwide by late Feb/early March 2015. And the real prediction is by end 2015 all of those critical routes will be fully operational even for a 60 with AC/heat on driving @ 60mph.