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Not only would GEN III include many of the lessons learned from Model S development, it would also include improvements made as a result of feedback after Model S hits the road in a few weeks.
While GEN III is expected to have less bells & whistles than Model S/X, I would expect it to use the latest battery technology available ~ 2014. In order to appeal to the masses, the 30k price should offer a minimum 300 mile range in a smaller pack and with smaller price increments up to a 500+ mile pack.
Last edited by Iz; 07-08-2012 at 03:04 PM.
No way will you have 300 miles at 30k price point in 2014. 160-180 miles maybe.
The 30 k Modell must have a Range aboiut 350-400 miles.
steve
So in 3 years, the people who bought the 85 kWh will already be outdone but a $30,000 Tesla in terms of range? I highly doubt that. I understand technology moves forward and know there will be a cheaper, better Model S down the road with more range but not with the Gen III. I'm not saying there won't be a 300 mile Gen III option but it won't be the base $30,000 or so model. Even if they could, they wouldn't want to. You don't want the performance and range of your cheap model to bleed too far into your upper level models and poach sales. They will overlap some though.Originally Posted by stevebalmmer
Thank you all for your thoughts and insights. I kind of expect a convertible S as well before the GEN III.
As to the range, we have to remember that the $50K car didn't have a 300 miles range as stated either. I am sure the 30k car will be a stripped model (again) with certain limitations.
The timing might work for a Model S lease before switching to the Gen III car
While Telsa wasn't exactly clear in their marketing early on, they also never said the $50,000 base car would have a 300 mile range. People just read that into the statement which was partly Tesla's fault for not typing 'up to 300 miles'. I agree, the $30,000 or so car will be the base model with the smallest battery pack.
How much physically smaller would the GenIII battery box be? 20%? 30%
When did the Model S lock in battery specs? 2010?
When does the GenIII lock in batter specs? 2013?
Assuming only battery improvements (not motor or PEM) of the usual 8% per year of energy density per cell we could estimate what range he GenIII is capable of for three range models and possible pricing using the battery cost as the only variable.
The world loves to be deceived.
That GEN III will be targeted at a larger customer base that will also be more price conscious. Based on feedback from others, it appears a base 250-300 "real world" range at the $30k price point is what the greater aggregate of that customer base will be looking for. Nissan was rumored to be looking at a 200-mile range on the next Leaf. A Tesla rep mentioned that TM is aware of all the battery reasearch underway. Perhaps when one of these advancements proves out, it will be used.
They could improve efficiency of the car. Making it 69.5 inches wide would reduce the CdA by 10%. Making the wheels smaller will reduce Cd and reduce drag from the tires. Obviously LRR tires will help too.
A smaller car could get 20% more range out of existing batteries, making the 40kWh GenIII car get 192 miles of range if the Model S gets 160.
Nobody is going to be able to make a $30,000 250 mile range EV in the next 4 years.
It is a waste of time to focus on what the majority of customers think they need from their car. A 200,000 unit per year GenIII Tesla car will still only be selling to less than 1% of the car buying public.
Tesla does not need to meet the unreasonble expectations of the majority of the car buying public.
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