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Gen III Range & Pricing Speculation

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Yeah, I think if they want to remove features to make the base model cheaper it has to be stuff that's expensive. Keyless entry, sensors on wipers, a 4G LTE module, cruise control - that's peanuts in terms of costs, these sensors and RFID modules, LTE chips are mass produced in the hundreds of millions and make it to 100 dollar phones, etc. You need all kinds of motion and speed sensors for ABS and the like anyway, obviously they have an electronic accelerator pedal, isn't cruise control simply and extra piece of code on the onboard computer?

I agree the touch screen will get smaller, which is a good thing for a smaller car and the cost of those screens grows exponentially with size. As we have more and more 13-15" touchscreen notebooks, they should be able to get a good deal on a, say 15" model. But that can't be more than a saving in the low 100 dollars, I think, if at all. (Especially by 2017).

So they have to look at "real" costs. Not including the 4G dataplan could be something (think roaming costs and unlimited data per year). That could be an option, and some may go for theathering instead. But the real saver will be less aluminum, more plastics (some of those soft to touch plastic interiors are not such a horrible tradeoff), no air suspension, less cool but expensive gimmicks like door handles popping out, and of course, much cheaper batteries.

On thing we have to consider is offering less options to begin with. Options mean more variations, more manual configurations per customer, less truly mass production. When we bought a new Yaris for someone in the family a few years back, I was shocked they only had like 3 or 4 options, bundles to choose from. You could have the "engine option" for the step up from 1.1 to 1.3 liter, and maybe 2 trims including a bunch of stuff. But you could not do things "a la carte". That's one way to make things cheaper.
 
I would agree that all those expecting the screen to get smaller need to remember that touchsceens have really come down in price with the over-commoditization of tablets. When it comes to features lost, I wouldn't expect anything other than the splash and flash... so beyond the door handles, there isn't too much to outright lose. My guess would be that more features are available, but that the add-on path will be steeper & longer.
 
It has been stated by Elon and others at Tesla that they are shooting for the base GenIII to cost in the $30k's. I expect the top of the line fully loaded GenIII to be above $60k. The BMW 3-Series tops out at over $60k. They will easily sell a Performance GenIII coupe for more than $60k. Look at all of the people going for the Performance Model S. The performance GenIII will most likely have slightly better performance for ~$20k less. If they decide to go with three battery options then there will probably be at least a $7,500 bump in price between each option. If they decide to only go with two options then I can see the delta being at least $10k. I don't see Tesla putting out a smaller car that gets less range than the 40kwh Model S. I expect the base GenIII to get a little less than 200 mile range in real world driving. More than doubling the range of a Leaf for slightly more is going to be a huge value proposition to potential customers. Even if Tesla can, there is no reason to quadruple the range of a Leaf for the base GenIII. It just doesn't make good business sense. Unfortunately we have some time to kill before we get any real details though.

Pretty close.
 
The M3 (performance model of the 3 series) would be like a the Gen3 performance model. Here's my rough price guesses:

$35,000 - base 48kwh Gen3 with no options
$45,000 - larger battery pack Gen3 with no options but w/supercharging
$55,000-60,000 - performance Gen3 with larger battery pack w/supercharging
$80,000+ - performance Gen3 with larger battery pack, fully loaded (air suspension, larger wheels, pano, tech, sound, leather, and all available options)
DaveT FTW. Compared to some of the other WAGs I think he was pretty close.
 
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