Observation of Model S Deliveries

ArtInCT · Jun 29, 2015

Usually at the end of a quarter, my local SC becomes choked with new Model S deliveries from the factory.
This June is no different that any other quarter end.
This morning there were 28 new Model S's in the lot all with the white protective film.

But wait... there is a difference....

Of the 28, only two were P85D's.
Of the 28, only five were 85D's.
Of the 28, only one was an 85.

The rest were 70D's.... 20 of them.

The least common color was the Titanium and the most common color were red and white with the new blue running very close.

The product mix has changed.
In December of 2014 pretty much all the cars were P85D's.
In March again most were P85D's or 85D's....

The 70D appears to have struck a cord with new S buyers....

Max* · Jun 29, 2015

Interesting. Could it be Tesla marketing? When I went for my test drive(s), the owners adviser was saying "well you don't need this option or that option or this option, etc." instead of trying to up-sell me, she was down-selling me.

Also, after I got my car I ran into someone who purchased a 70D. The gentleman said he came to the showroom to test drive (and purchase) an 85D. Instead they had him test drive the 70D, he was sold, made the deposit the same day. He said by doing so, they lost $10k - he was interested in the 85D, but after test driving the 70D decided he didn't need anything "more".

kuttakamina · Jun 29, 2015

Max* said:
Interesting. Could it be Tesla marketing? When I went for my test drive(s), the owners adviser was saying "well you don't need this option or that option or this option, etc." instead of trying to up-sell me, she was down-selling me.

Also, after I got my car I ran into someone who purchased a 70D. The gentleman said he came to the showroom to test drive (and purchase) an 85D. Instead they had him test drive the 70D, he was sold, made the deposit the same day. He said by doing so, they lost $10k - he was interested in the 85D, but after test driving the 70D decided he didn't need anything "more".

If an extra 10Kwh costs $10K, then 70Kwh = $70K? I can't believe the body is worth just 5K.
85D would be a worthwhile purchase at 3-5K more, not 10K more.

I cannot believe this hasn't already happened, but 85D should come with more freebies just like S85 did as compared to S60, or they need to raise the price of 70D by 5K.
At 10K price difference, 85D is just not worth it.

The P85D - is in a class of it's own though. There is no practical sedan that is that fast. So it gets some 'exclusivity price bump' lets say! The lower sales #'s of P85D are to be expected given the higher price.

But the way I see it, between the 70D and 85D, one of them is mispriced.

bonaire · Jun 29, 2015

I believe the 70D selection of orders is well over 40% by now. Closing in on 50% once all the 85D and P85D ordered as RHD are delivered to RHD markets.

MorrisonHiker · Jun 29, 2015

I could see that the 70D being more popular in California, around NYC and in other places where SuperChargers are so much closer together. I bet it will be a hit in Europe as well. In states such as the Plains, where the SuperChargers are spaced farther away, I could see the 85 models being more popular. It would be interesting to see 70/85 popularity based upon region.

Krugerrand · Jun 29, 2015

bonaire said:
I believe the 70D selection of orders is well over 40% by now. Closing in on 50% once all the 85D and P85D ordered as RHD are delivered to RHD markets.

Not according to Elon, who recently announced 70Ds are accounting for approx 30 percent of new orders.

Drucifer · Jun 29, 2015

If they are supply constrained on batteries, then they can get 6 70Ds out of the same number of cells as 5 85s. It might be possible, since they want to keep their unit deliveries up, that 70Ds are more attractive to sell for that reason.

kuttakamina · Jun 29, 2015

Drucifer said:
If they are supply constrained on batteries, then they can get 6 70Ds out of the same number of cells as 5 85s. It might be possible, since they want to keep their unit deliveries up, that 70Ds are more attractive to sell for that reason.

They are supply constrained, but .. on batteries? Their whole manufacturing process is aluminium based, and the factory can only print so many.
Don't think the bottleneck is batteries .. unless you can confirm otherwise

bonaire · Jun 29, 2015

Krugerrand said:
Not according to Elon, who recently announced 70Ds are accounting for approx 30 percent of new orders.

Did you see the recent post from someone who said that at his local shop, they had 28 deliveries on the lot and 20 were 70D?

Krugerrand · Jun 29, 2015

bonaire said:
Did you see the recent post from someone who said that at his local shop, they had 28 deliveries on the lot and 20 were 70D?

Give me a break. One location's vehicle option distribution does not equate to company-wide demand statics for vehicle options, and you know it. If I thought you actually cared about the truth, I'd go digging for the post that had another poster giving entirely different vehicle option distribution at their 'local shop'. All but two of the vehicles sitting there were P85Ds.

You can find the CEO's 70D demand percentage comment online from the recent shareholder's meeting.

Drucifer · Jun 30, 2015

kuttakamina said:
They are supply constrained, but .. on batteries? Their whole manufacturing process is aluminium based, and the factory can only print so many.
Don't think the bottleneck is batteries .. unless you can confirm otherwise

OK, new theory. If someone is already committed to spending $xx,xxx on a car, maybe the other options have higher margin for Tesla than the bigger battery in the sell price. That is, it's better for Tesla to sell a [70D plus Next Gen, Pano, Sound and Premium] than an [85D without], keeping unit vehicle selling price the same. Does that hold water?

bjwModelS · Jun 30, 2015

Drucifer said:
OK, new theory. If someone is already committed to spending $xx,xxx on a car, maybe the other options have higher margin for Tesla than the bigger battery in the sell price. That is, it's better for Tesla to sell a [70D plus Next Gen, Pano, Sound and Premium] than an [85D without], keeping unit vehicle selling price the same. Does that hold water?

Very interesting thought. I would have ordered same features regardless of battery size, but if it was 60 vs 85 I would have gone 85.

Max* · Jun 30, 2015

bjwModelS said:
Very interesting thought. I would have ordered same features regardless of battery size, but if it was 60 vs 85 I would have gone 85.

Same here.

3mp_kwh · Jun 30, 2015

I agree you can't gauge demand, by one lot of deliveries. That said, 24 months ago, in the northeast, a 60kwh buyer faced 10 fewer kwh, and almost no super chargers. Today, with 10 more kwh in the 70D, AWD, and big growth of superchargers, it's a different story.

Superchargers for trips, in almost any of Tesla's cars, are much more accessible. For daily winter use, however, when you can need several warm-up cycles and frequently have a single 50-100 mile trip in a given day, I don't think even 85kwh is enough. Away from a plug for 48hrs, can feel like living on the edge. This can mean deliberately not plugging in, EVSE failures, or trips. Whichever the case, I'd go RWD 85 (and snows) over 70D to reduce those nights the car absolutely has to find a plug, or take a detour. YMMV. I'm glad I never had the dilemma of choosing to spend $5k, for 15kwh.

bp1000 · Jun 30, 2015

Could it just be they are building in batches? Maybe this last week they built a batch of 70D's. I know the line can mix models and even RHD / LHD but maybe it was a batch run?

Either way though, i can see the 70D being their most popular model. It is a good buy and more than adequate for most people.

kuttakamina · Jun 30, 2015

Drucifer said:
OK, new theory. If someone is already committed to spending $xx,xxx on a car, maybe the other options have higher margin for Tesla than the bigger battery in the sell price. That is, it's better for Tesla to sell a [70D plus Next Gen, Pano, Sound and Premium] than an [85D without], keeping unit vehicle selling price the same. Does that hold water?

Since Tesla is not demand constrained, I would think, they would sell all the 85Ds they could produce.
Would people skimp on options since the car cost more? Maybe.
My view is, saving on options on a Tesla is like saving $ on wrapping paper on an expensive gift. But I am not everyone.

All that said, I strongly feel, 70D and 85D are mispriced, and 70D is a far more compelling value.
We are not comparing Prius to Tesla here. 70D and 85D are THE SAME CAR 99.99% of the time.

IMO Tesla should,
70D - raise the price by 2.5K
85D - lower the price by 2.5K
S85 - $1K more than 70D
P85D - keep it where it is

Max* · Jun 30, 2015

kuttakamina said:
Since Tesla is not demand constrained, I would think, they would sell all the 85Ds they could produce.
Would people skimp on options since the car cost more? Maybe.
My view is, saving on options on a Tesla is like saving $ on wrapping paper on an expensive gift. But I am not everyone.

All that said, I strongly feel, 70D and 85D are mispriced, and 70D is a far more compelling value.
We are not comparing Prius to Tesla here. 70D and 85D are THE SAME CAR 99.99% of the time.

IMO Tesla should,
70D - raise the price by 2.5K
85D - lower the price by 2.5K
S85 - $1K more than 70D
P85D - keep it where it is

If they did that, I'd pay $5k for 30 miles more range. I wont pay more than $5k though. I'd pay the $10k for a 100/105kwh battery. But everyone is different.

Search

Observation of Model S Deliveries

ArtInCT

Always Learning

Max*

Charging

kuttakamina

Member

bonaire

Active Member

MorrisonHiker

Well-Known Member

Krugerrand

Meow

Drucifer

Active Member

kuttakamina

Member

bonaire

Active Member

Krugerrand

Meow

Drucifer

Active Member

bjwModelS

Member

Max*

Charging

3mp_kwh

Active Member

bp1000

Member

kuttakamina

Member

Max*

Charging

Similar threads