I figured I'd start a discussion on this after a couple of Robert Boston's comments piqued my interest in this topic.
Specifically, that current power pricing does not reflect current costs and that distribution/infrastructure/labor represent nearly 50% of the cost of residential electricity.
Here are the two quotes I'm referencing.
Based on the fairly high cost of just having a home connected to the grid (~$6000/decade), the increase in the number of wireless electrical control devices, and the cost of PV panels, I'm wondering if the grid as we know it is headed out the door.
This wouldn't be something universal, but with levelized solar costs at something like ~$.05/kWh on the low end (DIY install), the ability to integrate DSM into a home at the individual level, and the dropping costs of battery storage (probably ~$.10-.15c/kWh), my WAG is that someone could put together a set up (genset backup) where they would only pay ~$.07-.09/kWh compared to the ~$.13/kWh US residential average.
They would of course need to push ~80% of their electricity consumption into the day time in order to minimize storage costs, and charging an EV at night wouldn't be viable, but they would be able to drastically undercut the cost of grid power with hopefully similar uptime/availability.
Does anyone have any thoughts/remarks on this?
Specifically, that current power pricing does not reflect current costs and that distribution/infrastructure/labor represent nearly 50% of the cost of residential electricity.
Here are the two quotes I'm referencing.
Yes, provided that we've got "peak" defined correctly. Too often historic usage is enshrined in time-of-service rates; as the Duck Curve shows, many of those historical "peak" hours will probably have negative energy prices in the future. The real value will be in reducing the sharp run-up in consumption at sunset.
There's an awkward temporal line-up of California, too: sunset occurs at nearly the same minute across most of the coast, where most of the people live. E.g., today sunset is at 4:48 in San Diego, 4:50 in LA, and 4:58 in Oakland. By contrast, in the eastern/mid-Atlantic/mid-west markets, we have much more east-west diversity in the solar resource.
This talk of "negawatts" really underscores how poorly we price power. If consumers simply paid the current, 5-minute or hourly, price of power, and generators were simply paid that price, then everything would line up neatly. Instead we have "big" generators (>=10MW) seeing that real-time price, but retail tariffs burying it, both for purchases and injections.
And, I've managed to wander far from the nuke question. I'll offer this on that subject: nuclear plants see the actual prices in the market, based on actual scarcity or surplus. Rooftop solar doesn't. If rooftop solar did, my guess is that the economics would be much less attractive than it is today. Still better than building a nuke, but certainly not enough to trigger shutting down an existing, well-functioning nuke.
In round numbers, yes, $50/month for a residential property seems about right. Remember you're paying not only for the capital costs of your distribution wires, but also your pro rata share of the transmission system, as well as all the employees who keep the system running.
Based on the fairly high cost of just having a home connected to the grid (~$6000/decade), the increase in the number of wireless electrical control devices, and the cost of PV panels, I'm wondering if the grid as we know it is headed out the door.
This wouldn't be something universal, but with levelized solar costs at something like ~$.05/kWh on the low end (DIY install), the ability to integrate DSM into a home at the individual level, and the dropping costs of battery storage (probably ~$.10-.15c/kWh), my WAG is that someone could put together a set up (genset backup) where they would only pay ~$.07-.09/kWh compared to the ~$.13/kWh US residential average.
They would of course need to push ~80% of their electricity consumption into the day time in order to minimize storage costs, and charging an EV at night wouldn't be viable, but they would be able to drastically undercut the cost of grid power with hopefully similar uptime/availability.
Does anyone have any thoughts/remarks on this?