Any thoughts on max drop dead decision dates. Tesla can't keep this off forever. Wonder what internal requirements will forces something. Plus or minus a few months is not a big thing but this feels like it's gone on too long. Makes me wonder if GenII is behind design schedules.
I'd say about T - 2 years. Panasonic have had a cell plant up and running in 20 months. GF is manufacturing batteries, not cars, which means arranging supply of raw materials is probably the big challenge.
At this point Panasonic needs confidence in Tesla but also in their own ability to deliver the required improvement in the cell at the target cost.
Middle of 2015 Tesla should:
- be selling in all major global markets
- be producing Model X at full rate
- have covered many more routes with Superchargers
- be much more advanced with AutoPilot, at the minimum having a semi-firm date on AutoPilot 1.0 with ACC, BSD and LKA.
- be increasing development work on Model E
Panasonic should:
- Have completed much more of their restructuring
- Be seeing even higher profit from Tesla
- Have had more time to view the rest of the car market.
- Have more idea of their progress on the 2017/2018 cell
- Have more idea of Tesla's progress
I think by end Q2 2015 Panasonic and partners should be in a better position to decide and I don't expect any big moves until then. Model E Elon target end 2017, real target end 2018 and merry Christmas 2019 to me.