Wanted to take a stab on an estimated delivery model based on some data we have so far.
Assumptions:
Explanations:
Delivery Date: Month of Delivery
Signature Series/Production: Number of Deliveries
Net Deliveries: Signatures + Production Deliveries
Weekly Prod Rate: production per week
Holder Range: Starting range of reservation number at the beginning of the delivery month
Reserved: Date of reservation number or estimated date of reservation number (future dated from May-14 to Sep-15)
Wait Time (Months): # of months between delivery rate and month of reservation.
Assumptions:
- A few Signatures being delivered at the end of 2014, but more likely early 2015
- based on "full" production of 550 a week getting achieved by June 2015 (a little later than announced to account for additional delays)
- backlog down to 1 quarter wait by Dec 2015.
- other markets not included in the model yet, which will likely add to the timeline.
Delivery Date | Signatures Series | Production | Net Deliveries | Weekly Prod Rate | Holder Range | Reserved | Wait Time (Months) |
Dec-14 | 12 | - | 12 | 3 | Signatures Up to 10 | Feb-12 | 34 |
Jan-15 | 400 | - | 412 | 100 | Signature 10 to 400 | Mar-12 | 34 |
Feb-15 | 600 | - | 1,012 | 150 | Signature Up to 1000 | Mar-12 | 35 |
Mar-15 | 188 | 1,012 | 2,212 | 300 | Signature up to 1200 | May-12 | 34 |
Apr-15 | 1,600 | 3,812 | 400 | Production 1600 | Oct-12 | 30 | |
May-15 | 2,000 | 5,812 | 500 | Production 3600 | Feb-13 | 27 | |
Jun-15 | 2,200 | 8,012 | 550 | Production 5800 | Dec-13 | 18 | |
Jul-15 | 2,200 | 10,212 | 550 | Production 8000 | Feb-14 | 17 | |
Aug-15 | 2,200 | 12,412 | 550 | Production 10200 | May-14 | 15 | |
Sep-15 | 2,200 | 14,612 | 550 | Production 12400 | Sep-14 | 12 | |
Oct-15 | 2,200 | 16,812 | 550 | Production 14600 | Jan-15 | 9 | |
Nov-15 | 2,200 | 19,012 | 550 | Production 16800 | May-15 | 6 | |
Dec-15 | 2,200 | 21,212 | 550 | Production 19000 | Sep-15 | 3 |
Delivery Date: Month of Delivery
Signature Series/Production: Number of Deliveries
Net Deliveries: Signatures + Production Deliveries
Weekly Prod Rate: production per week
Holder Range: Starting range of reservation number at the beginning of the delivery month
Reserved: Date of reservation number or estimated date of reservation number (future dated from May-14 to Sep-15)
Wait Time (Months): # of months between delivery rate and month of reservation.
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