Battery swapping is coming. There is little doubt at this point that part 5 of Elon's trilogy is battery swapping.
Now, I know there are a number of threads that are discussing this, and debating the pros and cons of swapping, and arguing about whether or not it is a good idea. The fact of the matter is, none of that matters. Apparently they have found a way to make it work. So, I don't want to rehash any of those old arguments in this thread. I want to figure out what Elon and company know. If he found a way to make this work, then there is no reason we can't figure it out too. Let's do what we do best and scoop his announcement.
Let's start with what we know about Elon's strategy for dealing with these things. It seems to me that the way Elon attacks a problem is that he first studies the opposing arguments. He compiles them all together, then he ranks them and begins knocking out each leg of the argument one at a time. That's what this 5-part trilogy is all about after all: he's taking the bear case against Tesla and attacking each point one at a time.
So, let's do the same. Let's compile together the list of arguments against battery swapping, then let's figure out what Tesla could be doing to "solve" these problems.
This is what I've got to start. Let me know if I should add anything.
So, let's compile some potential answers to each of these arguments. Again, it doesn't matter whether you agree with these arguments or not, it only matters that some do. If anyone believes these things, they are an argument worth squashing in Elon's book (think about the bricked battery thing).
Alright. That's what I've got so far. Please contribute your own ideas or rip into mine. I'll update this story to reflect what I think are the best ideas emerging from the discussion.
Now, I know there are a number of threads that are discussing this, and debating the pros and cons of swapping, and arguing about whether or not it is a good idea. The fact of the matter is, none of that matters. Apparently they have found a way to make it work. So, I don't want to rehash any of those old arguments in this thread. I want to figure out what Elon and company know. If he found a way to make this work, then there is no reason we can't figure it out too. Let's do what we do best and scoop his announcement.
Let's start with what we know about Elon's strategy for dealing with these things. It seems to me that the way Elon attacks a problem is that he first studies the opposing arguments. He compiles them all together, then he ranks them and begins knocking out each leg of the argument one at a time. That's what this 5-part trilogy is all about after all: he's taking the bear case against Tesla and attacking each point one at a time.
So, let's do the same. Let's compile together the list of arguments against battery swapping, then let's figure out what Tesla could be doing to "solve" these problems.
This is what I've got to start. Let me know if I should add anything.
- Swapping is too expensive
- They need to have a ton of batteries on hand (to be able to handle the worst case) but most of the time they are sitting around doing nothing.
- Why would they bother building out the Supercharger network if they are going to do swapping too?
- I take really good care of my battery, I don't want to end up with someone else's random battery.
- Swapping stations are too mechanically complex, would be a pain to maintain.
So, let's compile some potential answers to each of these arguments. Again, it doesn't matter whether you agree with these arguments or not, it only matters that some do. If anyone believes these things, they are an argument worth squashing in Elon's book (think about the bricked battery thing).
The Answer (a work in progress)
The Tesla Battery Swapping Network will be a subset of the Supercharger Network. This means that all battery swap stations will also be supercharging stations, but not all supercharging stations will be battery swap stations. The highest traffic supercharger stations will be selected for upgrade to battery swap stations to reduce the amount of time the average person needs to wait.
The stations will only have a limited number of batteries. Owners will be able to reserve a battery for up to 30 mins before their arrival at the station via their smartphone app or the center console in their Model S. This balances the desire of the owner to know ahead of time how long they will need to stop for with the station's goal to not have reserved batteries sitting idle when other owners could be using them. This also gives the station enough time to Supercharge a battery for the owner and have it ready just in time for the owner to swap.
If an owner is unable to reserve a battery, then they will need to use the superchargers that are available at the station. This should only occur when traveling at peak times and only for a minority of owners visiting the station.
There will be a per-use cost for battery swapping. This helps to offset the cost of maintenance on the stations, but more importantly, creates an economic incentive for owners to use the free Superchargers if they are planning on stopping for a while anyway. Tesla is trying to avoid having owners swap their battery, then immediately park to go use the restroom and grab a bite to eat. The Supercharger would have worked just fine for their use case, and a small fee is probably enough to make them behave in the way that we want.
Tesla already has the cheapest battery packs around, and by increasing their production of packs for these stations, they'll get even greater price reductions for the cells that they purchase for the packs (and other economies of scale). Furthermore, once they demonstrate the ability to battery swap, the Model S becomes eligible for even more ZEV credits per car. The added revenue from selling these credits also helps to offset the cost to build these stations. Finally, batteries at the station will not be sitting idle. They will store energy collected by the onsite solar arrays or the grid during times of low use and then they'll be drawn from for Supercharging (assuming they have not been reserved by an incoming owner). This will help reduce the operating cost of the superchargers.
Because Tesla warranties all batteries against anything at all (except intentional tampering) there is no reason to be concerned about what battery you end up with in your car. You can feel perfectly confident that your battery will perform and Tesla will take care of it if it doesn't.
The Tesla Battery Swapping Network will be a subset of the Supercharger Network. This means that all battery swap stations will also be supercharging stations, but not all supercharging stations will be battery swap stations. The highest traffic supercharger stations will be selected for upgrade to battery swap stations to reduce the amount of time the average person needs to wait.
The stations will only have a limited number of batteries. Owners will be able to reserve a battery for up to 30 mins before their arrival at the station via their smartphone app or the center console in their Model S. This balances the desire of the owner to know ahead of time how long they will need to stop for with the station's goal to not have reserved batteries sitting idle when other owners could be using them. This also gives the station enough time to Supercharge a battery for the owner and have it ready just in time for the owner to swap.
If an owner is unable to reserve a battery, then they will need to use the superchargers that are available at the station. This should only occur when traveling at peak times and only for a minority of owners visiting the station.
There will be a per-use cost for battery swapping. This helps to offset the cost of maintenance on the stations, but more importantly, creates an economic incentive for owners to use the free Superchargers if they are planning on stopping for a while anyway. Tesla is trying to avoid having owners swap their battery, then immediately park to go use the restroom and grab a bite to eat. The Supercharger would have worked just fine for their use case, and a small fee is probably enough to make them behave in the way that we want.
Tesla already has the cheapest battery packs around, and by increasing their production of packs for these stations, they'll get even greater price reductions for the cells that they purchase for the packs (and other economies of scale). Furthermore, once they demonstrate the ability to battery swap, the Model S becomes eligible for even more ZEV credits per car. The added revenue from selling these credits also helps to offset the cost to build these stations. Finally, batteries at the station will not be sitting idle. They will store energy collected by the onsite solar arrays or the grid during times of low use and then they'll be drawn from for Supercharging (assuming they have not been reserved by an incoming owner). This will help reduce the operating cost of the superchargers.
Because Tesla warranties all batteries against anything at all (except intentional tampering) there is no reason to be concerned about what battery you end up with in your car. You can feel perfectly confident that your battery will perform and Tesla will take care of it if it doesn't.
Alright. That's what I've got so far. Please contribute your own ideas or rip into mine. I'll update this story to reflect what I think are the best ideas emerging from the discussion.
Last edited by a moderator:
