Thread: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

  1. #12561
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    Quote Originally Posted by FANGO View Post
    This comment (from Tesla, apparently?) was just sent out by Dougherty & Co.:

    "Tesla is production constrained at present because the factory is still ramping. Tesla is not cell constrained right now and won’t be for another three to four years. Tesla has ample battery supply available to double and even triple current production. That was unclear on the call and we did not make it clear in our conversations with investors this week."

    I felt like that was relatively clear on the call, but considering how everyone here has been talking about battery cell constraints for the last couple days, I thought I'd put this out there.
    When I picked up my car at the factory in March (I think Tesla was making 40 cars a day, or 200 a week at that time) the tour guide mentioned a few things when asked about the production capacity of the current line. Some processes, stamping in particular, were only running a few hours a day, 3 or 4 days a week. Others were running 5 days a week. The standout was battery pack assembly -- I was told that was running 24/7 and was their biggest bottleneck. If cell supply is secure I wonder if this is still an issue.

    (This tour guide also said the battery pack housing/armor was steel, so take this with a grain of salt)

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    When Elon was referring to battery constrains(and was talking about gigafactory), he meant potential constrains for Gen3 production with expected output on order of hundreds of thousands of units per year.

    Recent contract with Panasonic gives Tesla enouph cells to produce 250k+ Model S/X in next 3 to 4 years. We would be lucky if TM could actually do it. It is a huge challenge for both Tesla factory and rest of Tesla supply chain.
    "Our goal has been to create something that is a reliable truck, essentially, rather than a Ferrari." Elon Musk

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    Quote Originally Posted by FANGO View Post
    "Tesla is production constrained at present because the factory is still ramping. Tesla is not cell constrained right now and won’t be for another three to four years. Tesla has ample battery supply available to double and even triple current production. That was unclear on the call and we did not make it clear in our conversations with investors this week."
    Quote Originally Posted by Zzzz... View Post
    When Elon was referring to battery constrains(and was talking about gigafactory), he meant potential constrains for Gen3 production with expected output on order of hundreds of thousands of units per year.

    Recent contract with Panasonic gives Tesla enouph cells to produce 250k+ Model S/X in next 3 to 4 years. We would be lucky if TM could actually do it. It is a huge challenge for both Tesla factory and rest of Tesla supply chain.
    Here is my transcription of the earnings call at 5:20 into it:

    Question: What is your feel on current assembly line capacity vs. 3 months ago?

    Elon: The main constraint on our production is really our cells. I think I mentioned that before in talks and I alluded to that in the prior earnings call…we’re addressing the cell supply constraints and any sort of non-cell constraints that exist, but really the critical thing is the cell production constraints, we announced the deal with Panasonic, which is for a much increased volume…when we think about the constraints on growth that’s the biggest item that gets most of our attention, and like I said I think we’ll see some relief on that constraint next year.

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    Yeah I guess EM misunderstood the question and that is why Tesla actually issued that clarification.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Or may be he was talking about very short term constrains, but TM clarification was talking about absense of general cell constrains in timeframe of years to come...
    "Our goal has been to create something that is a reliable truck, essentially, rather than a Ferrari." Elon Musk

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    Stock is down 4,8% today in germany and close to currently 100€.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ev-enthusiast View Post
    Stock is down 4,8% today in germany and close to curreny 100€.
    unless the euro will crush today, you will see tesla below 100€. losing 128$ will open the door to 115$!

  7. #12567
    Senior Member Theshadows's Avatar
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements

    Quote Originally Posted by hoang51 View Post
    Time to turn the tide and either buy puts or wait until the correction is over (I'm buying puts). At this point, I'm turning negative for the short term because now the market really shows that TSLA is overvalued.
    There is no way I would consider buying puts on this. That's another short term play and with all that has happened this stock has turned into a wild beast. There is no telling what it's going to do. I saw someone mention a straddle which sounded to me like a good idea, then I thought about it for a bit and what would happen if it consolidates here, or around the strike you pick.

    All of these are short term plays and all I have left is common, leaps, and cash to get more leaps next week. I have changed my options strategy now to what others have suggested before and that is only buying options that are really far out. I might still do some short term ones but it will be with really small dollar amounts.

    This beast could either be the bear or the bull, on it could just lay down and sleep for a period of time.
    Last edited by Theshadows; 2013-11-08 at 05:14 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Theshadows View Post
    There is no way I would consider buying puts on this. That's another short term play and with all that has happened this stock has turned into a wild beast. There is no telling what it's going to do. I saw someone mention a straddle which sounded to me like a good idea, then I thought about it for a bit and what would happen if it consolidates here, or around the strike you pick.

    All of these are short term plays and all I have left is common, leaps, and cash to get more leaps next week. I have changed my options strategy now to what others have suggested before and that is only buying options that are really far out. I might still do some short term ones but it will be with really small dollar amounts.

    This beast could either be the bear or the bull, on it could just lay down and sleep for a period of time.
    1. so you think this could go down or it could go up or it could stay the same. can you think of another possibility...i am stumped. i think you have it covered. i think staying the same is extremely unlikely though
    2. not a response to your post but i saw that some are claiming a clarification of his battery supply constraint issue. i think that such a change would not have been communicated privately. would not trade on it based on this comment. would like to see it released by tesla or musk

  9. #12569
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chickenlittle View Post
    1. so you think this could go down or it could go up or it could stay the same. can you think of another possibility...i am stumped. i think you have it covered. i think staying the same is extremely unlikely though

    In the short term that is correct. Mid term, I think we will be back up into the 160-170 range by January. Long term is a different story all together, I think this pull back is going to give the bull tremendous momentum through next year.
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  10. #12570
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    UK turns to Elon Musk for advise on how to sell ultra-low emission vehicles:

    http://www.thegreencarwebsite.co.uk/...sion-vehicles/

    Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg announced that Tesla CEO and co-founder, Elon Musk will personally advise ministers on how best to accelerate demand and encourage industry innovation for new energy vehicles in the country.

    A second £500 million fund is designed to support the market in addition to the fund of £400 million already in place.
    Last edited by ev-enthusiast; 2013-11-08 at 07:35 AM.

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