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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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#2,964
MOD:

Ref. post #2962:
There is NO reason to clog up threads to satisfy what readily can be discovered by hitting some back pages, all the more so when that topic was beaten to death with many, many dozen posts. Moderators' Delete Fingers are standing by.
 
#2,967
I'm doing something I should have done a month earlier, selling some of my J19s (OTM) and rolling into J20s. There has been some good discussion around here how one should leave plenty of margin for error when trading options. J19 is starting to feel a little too short term for me.

I'm trading out of my IRA so no tax concerns, but also not allowed to use margin, so I have to wait a few days to settle the sale before I can roll into J20s. I think this won't be the last time we visit $350, on the way up or down. I might even wait for $330s again to get into J20s.

PS I'm about 2/3 stocks and 1/3 J19s, and I just got out of 1/4 of my J19s
 
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#2,969
Runarbt said:
Sure you can. I live in Norway, and got an account on schwab.com..

Rigth now I have 40x jan2019 600 calls.. Value jumping around like crazy though.. 43k to 13k to 24k.. Learning how to trade them now. :) Huge earning potential, even if SP doesnt go past 600 by jan-2019.
Click to expand...

I was thinking I couldn´t trade options, too... Thanks for the info. Just checked and Interactive Brokers (which also seems to be popular in the US) allows international access, too: What You Need for the Application | Interactive Brokers

Now I still have to decide if I can take the extra stress :confused:...
 
#2,970
Fifield said:
1,646,377 shares should enter the market, ~1% dilution: TLSA Outstanding Convertible Payoff Table

I'm guessing this will add some short term selling pressure, but how much this affects the stock price depends on the appetite of buyers at that time, plus many other factors:
How much is this is already priced into the share price?
Will short sellers use these extra shares in search of buyers as an opportunity to further depress the stock price....???
Click to expand...

The 2018 notes are a non-issue. As of 12/31/17, only $5.5 million of the original $660 million in face value have not been redeemed early. The notes' prospectus originally said the principal value would be redeemed with cash, but the most recent three early redemptions used shares: " in June 2017, September 2017 and November 2017, pursuant to separate privately negotiated agreements, we exchanged $144.8 million, $10.0 million and $12.0 million, respectively, in aggregate principal amount of the 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2018 for 1.2 million shares, 0.1 million shares and 0.1 million shares, respectively, of our common stock."

The most recent early redemption was explained as:

On November 15, 2017, we issued 96,634 shares of our common stock to a holder of our 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2018 in exchange for $12.0 million in aggregate principal amount of such notes, pursuant to a privately negotiated agreement. Such issuance was conducted pursuant to an exemption from registration provided by Rule 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act. We relied on this exemption from registration based in part on the representations made by the holder of such notes in the transaction."

In connection with the offering of such notes in 2013, we sold certain warrants to Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC (“Morgan Stanley”). On November 14, 2017, we agreed with Morgan Stanley to partially terminate such warrants, and in connection with such partial termination, we issued 16,960 shares of our common stock to Morgan Stanley. Such issuance was conducted as a private placement "pursuant to an exemption from registration provided by Rule 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act and was offered only to persons believed to be either (i) “accredited investors” within the meaning of Rule 501 of Regulation D promulgated under the Securities Act or (ii) “qualified institutional buyers” within the meaning of Rule 144A promulgated under the Securities Act. We relied on this exemption from registration based in part on the representations made by Morgan Stanley."

If $12 million in face value resulted in an additional 113, 594 unregistered shares, the remaining $5.5 million might only add about 52,000 additional shares--minimal dilution and effect on share price.
 
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#2,972
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#2,973
hobbes said:
I was thinking I couldn´t trade options, too... Thanks for the info. Just checked and Interactive Brokers (which also seems to be popular in the US) allows international access, too: What You Need for the Application | Interactive Brokers

Now I still have to decide if I can take the extra stress :confused:...
Click to expand...

Yes. And if you get confident and greedy, you can lose it all! If someone who seemed as knowledgable as 007 can get burned, the rest of us need to be really careful!
 
#2,974
I think I'm going to lighten up around 360, maybe upper 350s.

Reasons for
1. 360 is the upper bollinger band
2. RSI is at 60. Bailing around 65~ has historically been a good move, though not always
3. We're coming up on tons of resistance levels
4. This one is entirely made up by me and holds no real meaning, but TSLA rallies generally last 1-2 weeks. It's been a 2 week rally so far.

Reasons against
All it takes is for Elon to tweet something out regarding the ramp up and the stock could jump 2-5%
Macros still have room to grow as it's still in the middle of recovery
 
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#2,975
hobbes said:
I was thinking I couldn´t trade options, too... Thanks for the info. Just checked and Interactive Brokers (which also seems to be popular in the US) allows international access, too: What You Need for the Application | Interactive Brokers

Now I still have to decide if I can take the extra stress :confused:...
Click to expand...
I travel to Australia often, and it gets very stressful if I have options that are soon-to-expire while I'm in a different time zone. Even more so if they are actually going to expire! With shares, anything that can happen in an afternoon can't matter too much. But with options...
 
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#2,978
Jayjs20 said:
I think I'm going to lighten up around 360, maybe upper 350s.

Reasons for
1. 360 is the upper bollinger band
2. RSI is at 60. Bailing around 65~ has historically been a good move, though not always
3. We're coming up on tons of resistance levels
4. This one is entirely made up by me and holds no real meaning, but TSLA rallies generally last 1-2 weeks. It's been a 2 week rally so far.

Reasons against
All it takes is for Elon to tweet something out regarding the ramp up and the stock could jump 2-5%
Macros still have room to grow as it's still in the middle of recovery
Click to expand...

You should check out some of the Technical Analysis posts regarding the Bollinger Bands. Conventional wisdom that they act as a barrier is contradicted by Bollinger himself. He indicated in his book that when the SP rises above the upper 2SD or below the lower 2SD, that it often acts as a continuation pattern.

We’ve noticed that TSLA has a tendency to ride the bands for several days before falling back into the ranges. Only then potentially reversing (either up or down) once SP is within the band ranges.
 
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#2,979
hobbes said:
I was thinking I couldn´t trade options, too... Thanks for the info. Just checked and Interactive Brokers (which also seems to be popular in the US) allows international access, too: What You Need for the Application | Interactive Brokers

Now I still have to decide if I can take the extra stress :confused:...
Click to expand...

It is a lot of stress.. Steep learning curve (and expensive). I lost a lot, gained 10x that amount, and lost almost all again.. So, be prepared to loose everything u put in options.

And be prepared that u may get way to greedy when thing go well.
Options may gain 10x in days, just to drop 90% in a few hours.
 
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#2,980
Causalien said:
007 came in after I stopped checking regularly. What was his qualification for you all to think it is a big deal?
Click to expand...

He's a super nice guy. Was a regular. But was an Uber-bull and didn't provide much substance. Had a ridiculous amount of stock on margin and options, which gave him a certain amount of notoriety.

I hope you post here more regularly, Causalien. I also wish I that Johan would as well! Ah, the old days.....
 
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