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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Well, according to Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge all-time top sellers in Norway are the Nissan Leaf and VW e-Golf (to be overtaken relatively soon by the Model Y), so I don't think Tesla takes _all_ the credit. But I'm sure that Tesla's approach helped prove it would work.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Haha, I think you mean Gillette's Razor... cause this plan is disposable.
Shaved the 200-day Moving Average at 09:34 ET this morning:
Cheers to the 2Ongs!
The TAM of buyers boils down to the monthly payment as a % of monthly income. I'm not up on real estate, but 30% ratio comes to mind in order to qualify, 30 yr fixed. So roughly 6.5% on 1/2M home is $3K/month plus tax and ins (and more like 7% rates now). You'd need to show >$10K/month income.
That's not the middle class anymore. Bottom line, wages have not caught up yet... hence the UAW strike.
However, I've never been to a rodeo (unless they call the Calgary Stampede a rodeo
).Yup.The TAM of buyers boils down to the monthly payment as a % of monthly income. I'm not up on real estate, but 30% ratio comes to mind in order to qualify, 30 yr fixed. So roughly 6.5% on 1/2M home is $3K/month plus tax and ins (and more like 7% rates now). You'd need to show >$10K/month income.
That's not the middle class anymore. Bottom line, wages have not caught up yet... hence the UAW strike.
However, I've never been to a rodeo (unless they call the Calgary Stampede a rodeo
It’s between rates, cost of items and wages. Something has to give.
I’d prefer rates and cost of items drop rather than wages increase. Many people will not have access to higher wages but everyone has access to lower rates/prices.
I think you are right. And if we see high demand in the midwest where trucks rule and EV adoption has been slow, look out!
I'm very anxious to see if Cybertruck really starts to steal market share from the big three. I think it will be a must-have for traditional truck buyers if it is seen as the toughest truck on the planet. I hope that during the delivery event they redo all the same demos with the sledge hammer and even redo glass demo (without breakage this time).
Even Elon seems to downplay your point about lower Cd, but it's a good one. A big reason for not going with a traditional pickup shape is that the drag is obnoxiously bad. We often fail to appreciate how much the radical new design was driven by necessity.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Shucks, that is a very good point.
Considering Tesla has a China factory, would this restriction on Graphite export allow them to manufacture locally and then export finished products (parts) to their other factories?
If so, this ban wouldn't be much of a deterrent for the Big T.
For everyone else planning on China as a Graphite source the ban could be painful.
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For those that didn't buy a new Tesla in Q3 for the FSD transfer, you can now buy a new Tesla [S/X/Y, not 3] and get your unlimited lifetime superchargering transfered.
Some people look only for the positive news.
Others look ONLY for the negative.
May I suggest trying to at least find the middle?
And no, I don't need anyone to inform me about risk's to my investment.
In Italy, prices have escalated quickly post covid/post Ukraine. Right now you can find an espresso for 1.30€. Very often 1.20. Few years ago it was 1, 1.10 max.
Ten years ago I could have breakfast with 2€, now is 3€. I'm talking probably the single most purchased item in Italy per day. The rest follows, everything is up but the wages. This summer we had like 40% increase in the cost per vacation.
thumbs up if you will buy more TSLA share when it drops to 200 per share?
One of Tesla's operating tactics, though not explicitly stated, is to make and sell as many vehicles as they can of as few models and options as they can get away with. Truly mass manufacturing of each product for efficiency gains. This is in stark contrast to the other manufacturers....like Ford and GM that each sell several SUV models of nearly the same size and functionality, but still require different production lines due to assorted tweaks that are really mostly cosmetic....and unique advertising for each so customers can believe that one model best fits their unique life. Even within a model, they offer tons of options...base interior with a 4" screen with several options all the way up to a big screen and completely different dashboard and seats. I think there are 7 or more different front fascia/grill versions for the F150 depending on which version you buy. And today, those other guys are boasting about goals to produce 20-30 EV models in a few years. I think in 2021, Toyota said their goal was 3.5 million EVs by 2030 with 30 different models....so just over 100,000 of each? And probably further dividing each model with multiple trim levels and option packages. Compare the manufacturing efficiency to what Tesla does....
Anyway, back to Tesla:
Sure, the Model X was later than originally expected...but I think the X was actually announced and shown before the S was truly for sale, and at the time, I believe Tesla expected demand for the S to top out at 10,000 per year. S demand was way higher, so Tesla spent the resources to expand that production capacity. I have always suspected that decision also meant slowing down (or diverting resources from) X design and production setup...and to me, that was the right choice. It just makes for a more efficient operation to scale up the car you know to 50,000 per year, instead of trying to split resources and start trying to produce the X when they haven't even figured out how to make the S in mass quantities. And, of course, it also would have meant splitting the battery supply at the time...so, in total, they wouldn't have been selling more cars in 2014 (before the X actually came out) if they had gotten the X to market faster, but they would have spent a whole lot more money and be operating less efficiently.
Cybertruck is similar. Sure...they could have had it to market in, say, 2020, if they went with a ladder frame design and figured out how to wedge almost as many battery cells into it....but what batteries? Should they have reduced 3 and Y production at the time? Somehow convinced Panasonic to scale up faster at Giga Nevada? Convinced Chinese manufacturers to scale faster and ship batteries to the US? Tesla just hasn't ever had enough extra batteries lined up to justify a completely additional car model....that's why they had to shift toward making their own with the 4680, while still saying they'd buy every qualified cell that suppliers could sell them. And even today, 4680 with suitable improvements is just getting to scale. Knowing that there weren't multiple GWh's of extra batteries lying around 2-3 years ago, producing a truck in quantity back then would have required Tesla to slow down some other production plans. Would we have preferred to keep Model Y production artificially slow and less efficient back then so Tesla could get a bland "normal" pickup on the road on an inefficient small-numbers production line? Or do we like Tesla's strategy if big numbers, when ready, for efficiency?
OT but macro related to Tesla's cautious tone... I have a theory that AirBnB is one of the root cause of the housing crisis, inflation, and increased homelessness.
AirBnB Check In/Out is touch-less now. I never need to meet anyone to move in or out. (Last one, I had to pile all my sheets, clean up, empty trash, set the thermostat, lock window, even more...) This system became so easy to parse it out like your own hotel room, especially with the insurance backing by AirBnB along with the whole rating system on both ends. And with such value, I prefer these over hotels now. Hmmm, think about that.
As real estate value increased, homeowners quickly learned that there was a residual income waiting for them by buying even more rentals $$$ at low interest rates. As homes became more scarce, the available market for primary residences shrunk. This is a positive feedback loop. We essentially made housing a stock with a dividend. As the home values increased, home equity loans were taken out for some re-investments + spending part of it on F-150 Raptors at crazy prices. This was/is a house of cards and the banks are in trouble as Elon stated, and not just for the cars.
Now we have many homes tied up in a "business" while utilization has dropped because almost no AirBnB is 100% rented and most are seasonal. Overall, the net supply of housing utilization (and availability as a "home") shrank IMO. I heard a figure that there were 5M empty homes and only 500K homeless in the USA... go figure. Not sure how we define an empty home today though.
AirBnB Check In/Out is touch-less now. I never need to meet anyone to move in or out. (Last one, I had to pile all my sheets, clean up, empty trash, set the thermostat, lock window, even more...) This system became so easy to parse it out like your own hotel room, especially with the insurance backing by AirBnB along with the whole rating system on both ends. And with such value, I prefer these over hotels now. Hmmm, think about that.
As real estate value increased, homeowners quickly learned that there was a residual income waiting for them by buying even more rentals $$$ at low interest rates. As homes became more scarce, the available market for primary residences shrunk. This is a positive feedback loop. We essentially made housing a stock with a dividend. As the home values increased, home equity loans were taken out for some re-investments + spending part of it on F-150 Raptors at crazy prices. This was/is a house of cards and the banks are in trouble as Elon stated, and not just for the cars.
Now we have many homes tied up in a "business" while utilization has dropped because almost no AirBnB is 100% rented and most are seasonal. Overall, the net supply of housing utilization (and availability as a "home") shrank IMO. I heard a figure that there were 5M empty homes and only 500K homeless in the USA... go figure. Not sure how we define an empty home today though.
Yup. You have to decontent a house or car to get back to normal. No granite countertops ot tile floors, 25% less floor space, etc. same for car. AM radio, no leather, few bells and whistles. We are spoiled. Rodeos are fun. I think the Stampede qualifies.The TAM of buyers boils down to the monthly payment as a % of monthly income. I'm not up on real estate, but 30% ratio comes to mind in order to qualify, 30 yr fixed. So roughly 6.5% on 1/2M home is $3K/month plus tax and ins (and more like 7% rates now). You'd need to show >$10K/month income.
That's not the middle class anymore. Bottom line, wages have not caught up yet... hence the UAW strike.
However, I've never been to a rodeo (unless they call the Calgary Stampede a rodeo
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Sounds like we might need to increase our kWh estimates!
Dikkie Dik
If gets hard, use hammer
Congratulations on the first million in Europe 
Things like this make me skeptical of Elon's recession worries. Also bear in mind that we should already be in a recession if Elon's prognostications last year/early this year came to pass, and we aren't. These are QoQ GDP growth projections. No recession in sight.
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GhostSkater
Member
Specs better blow past every other EV truck, specially on range
Edit: this is GVWR, maximum total weight it can operate, if payload is still 3500 lbs for all variants, one should be at maximum 5500 lbs, and another maximum 6500 lbs, LFG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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