Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Solutions, ideas, suggestions, anyone? (And yet another example of why NOT having a Tesla PR department was a short-sighted move.)

When they had a PR department vs now, there were still the same amount of complaints in the forum and the same amount of negative articles from the media (relative to the size of Tesla). So either the PR department didn't do its job very well or the idea of Tesla having a PR department isn't so hot.

 

[jkirkwood001]

...Theoretically, if I was super certified insane and prescient at the same time (rather than analyzing in hindsight), the most optimal growth strategy would have been selling out of TSLA and then waiting for the inevitable drop down to $100. Then, mass re-buy and get the ~2.6X growth so far this year...on top of the ~20-25x it grew between 2019-2021.

In other words, "if only I had timed the market perfectly, ooooo how rich I would be!"

We could all say the same (and just as many have said the opposite: "if only I hadn't guessed wrong, tried to outsmart the market, ooooh how much I wouldn't have lost!")

The case has been made here time and time again that we can't predict the market, that "time in the market is better than trying to time the market".

Stop rolling the dice IMHO. Pick your risk tolerance level as far as TSLA / ETF / mutual funds / fixed income ratio and stick with it. Just a suggestion, not advice.

HODL.

 

[SO16]

head of state visiting Tesla factory.

 

[Cult Member]

Redwood acquires german battery recycling specialist Redux Recycling GmbH.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704089832111448321

 

[SOULPEDL]

Tesla granted the patent for the structural battery pack. Seems like an easy one - it’s so novel and useful.

https://image-ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch-public/print/downloadPdf/11764432

 

[mongo]

Tesla granted the patent for the structural battery pack. Seems like an easy one - it’s so novel and useful.

https://image-ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch-public/print/downloadPdf/11764432

This seems to be a small battery brick/module design, not necessarily a structural pack (though it calls out potting the cells in one embodiment). Main new thing seems to be calling out a PCB for one of the current collectors which could integrate other functions.
It has the same themes of welded tube can or one piece stamped sheet/cans we've seen before. Same with option for immersed cans for cooling.

Looks like something that could be useful for Optimus or Powerwall (if not prismatic LFP).

 

[UncaNed]

When they had a PR department vs now, there were still the same amount of complaints in the forum and the same amount of negative articles from the media (relative to the size of Tesla). So either the PR department didn't do its job very well or the idea of Tesla having a PR department isn't so hot.

But it didn't matter much during the times demand was crazy high; it's mostly when they're havinbg to loiwer prices that the need for a OPT or marketing or even advertising holds so much water.

 

[UncaNed]

Redwood acquires german battery recycling specialist Redux Recycling GmbH.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704089832111448321

This is great!

I only hope someone is working to find a way to recycle solar panels into somethingn meaningful too; I went to a public hearing for a commercial solar farm nearby, and one of the negative points by the NIMBY's was "are all those panels going to wind up in our landfill one day?"

 

[WarpedOne]

>>I only hope someone is working to find a way to recycle solar panels into somethingn meaningful too;

Solar panels are made of
- a lot of glass - already recyclable
- a lot of aluminum- already recyclable
- some copper- already recyclable
- some plastic- already recyclable
- some semiconductors - already recyclable

 

[GOVA]

head of state visiting Tesla factory.

Looks like production of CT. The inside looks incredible!

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is great!

I only hope someone is working to find a way to recycle solar panels into somethingn meaningful too; I went to a public hearing for a commercial solar farm nearby, and one of the negative points by the NIMBY's was "are all those panels going to wind up in our landfill one day?"haven't worn out yet.

Takes forever for solar panels to die… long and gradual without any sudden drop off as with batteries. Maybe after 50 yrs the space that the panels use becomes more valuable than the panels, still producing though.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

This is great!

I only hope someone is working to find a way to recycle solar panels into somethingn meaningful too; I went to a public hearing for a commercial solar farm nearby, and one of the negative points by the NIMBY's was "are all those panels going to wind up in our landfill one day?"

E.g. SOLARCYCLE | Full Solar Panel Recycling Services

Also:

Solar panel recycling market to grow by a CAGR of 26.97% from 2022 to 2027; Growth in solar PV Panel installation to boost the market growth - Technavio

/PRNewswire/ -- The global solar panel recycling market size is set to grow by USD 417.08 million and it is progressing at a CAGR of 26.97% between 2022 and...

www.prnewswire.com

It's not really a problem, despite what a certain shillen article that popped up all over the media said. Apparently costs up to 10x to recycle compared to putting them in landfill, but the cost impact to PV is relatively small, because of the relatively low cost per Watt (which the shillen article never mentioned), and especially since the recycling happens well into the future after all of the financial returns from the energy production.

Just needs a recycling mandate to be put in place.

It's more of a potential problem in developing countries with worse environmental rules that are recipients of older panels in the growing used PV market*, but with lower labor costs they are also more likely to recycle the panels.

* From 2021: Think before trashing: The second-hand solar market is booming

 

[SOULPEDL]

Gap fill incoming?

 

[growler23]

This is great!

I only hope someone is working to find a way to recycle solar panels into somethingn meaningful too; I went to a public hearing for a commercial solar farm nearby, and one of the negative points by the NIMBY's was "are all those panels going to wind up in our landfill one day?"

I've had that same concern, and IMO it is still real. Recycling panels can apparently be done, but not economically yet (happy to be corrected on this if folks know more). The risk is only somewhat mitigated by the long useful life of solar panels. Much work seems to be going into this field though.

One of the folks working on this is SolarCycle.

SOLARCYCLE | Full Solar Panel Recycling Services

We offer solar asset owners a low-cost, eco-friendly, comprehensive process for retiring solar panels and repurposing them for new uses.

www.solarcycle.us

General recycling progress overview:

Battery & Solar Recycling Marches On In March - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Lithium battery recycling is an important part of protecting the environment, as it can reduce the amount of raw materials used to create new batteries and decrease the amount of waste generated by...

cleantechnica.com

One specific recycling arrangement:

Silicon Ranch Inks a Socially & Environmentally Responsible Solar Supply Deal - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Silicon Ranch, a major US-based independent power producer, has obtained an extra 1.5 gigawatts of cutting-edge thin film solar modules from First Solar, Inc. The modules, which belong to the Series 6 Plus...

cleantechnica.com

As far as I can tell, Tesla is letting other folks focus on this particular problem - although to their credit they include the cost of recycling the solar panels in Master Plan Part 3.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I've had that same concern, and IMO it is still real. Recycling panels can apparently be done, but not economically yet (happy to be corrected on this if folks know more). The risk is only somewhat mitigated by the long useful life of solar panels. Much work seems to be going into this field though.

One of the folks working on this is SolarCycle.

SOLARCYCLE | Full Solar Panel Recycling Services

We offer solar asset owners a low-cost, eco-friendly, comprehensive process for retiring solar panels and repurposing them for new uses.

www.solarcycle.us

General recycling progress overview:

Battery & Solar Recycling Marches On In March - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Lithium battery recycling is an important part of protecting the environment, as it can reduce the amount of raw materials used to create new batteries and decrease the amount of waste generated by...

cleantechnica.com

One specific recycling arrangement:

Silicon Ranch Inks a Socially & Environmentally Responsible Solar Supply Deal - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Silicon Ranch, a major US-based independent power producer, has obtained an extra 1.5 gigawatts of cutting-edge thin film solar modules from First Solar, Inc. The modules, which belong to the Series 6 Plus...

cleantechnica.com

As far as I can tell, Tesla is letting other folks focus on this particular problem - although to their credit they include the cost of recycling the solar panels in Master Plan Part 3.

Humans have major recycling voids in the total waste picture. Last thing Id be worried about are solar panels.

Heck, just stack em to make shelters for the home… and they’d still be able to charge a phone. Inject expanding foam for insulation.

It’s the irony I’m poking at, but Tesla should absolutely lead by example. (As I dump another empty Kcup in the trash… so bad.)

I just met someone in Fla that used to work at a sewage facility around Tampa area. They literally squeeze then dump the treated fluids down a pipe (that you could walk inside of) straight into the Gulf of Mexico. Well, thats Florida.

 

[Krugerrand]

Speaking of factories, this could become a major issue: forced labor in the supply chain, namely China (some ~40% of Tesla production IIRC)?

This is NOT a good situation and I suspected years ago that getting into bed with China wasn't going to end well, despite it being the world's largest auto market.

Perhaps this was a driver in yesterday's TSLA price drop.

Solutions, ideas, suggestions, anyone? (And yet another example of why NOT having a Tesla PR department was a short-sighted move.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2023/electric-vehicles-forced-labor-china/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f003

Let me see; there was just an article yesterday by the WSJ that was entirely made up about Tesla, many articles by Reuters, NYT and various others that have contained falsehoods over the last DECADE and yet here you are sucked in by a WP article because you ‘suspected’.

I guess some of us haven’t learned yet, huh?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looks like production of CT. The inside looks incredible!

View attachment 975197

Looks can be deceiving. That video was recorded at the Fremont factory. CT production is Austin.

 

[GOVA]

Looks can be deceiving. That video was recorded at the Fremont factory. CT production is Austin.

Point?

I am sure they were able to get finished CT for bibi.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I've had that same concern, and IMO it is still real. Recycling panels can apparently be done, but not economically yet (happy to be corrected on this if folks know more). ...

Even the shillen article said $20/panel. Translate that to cost per Watt.

Key depends on "economically". To me economically is "won't add substantial cost to PV", not "as cheap as dumping it in a landfill." and as far as I'm aware, even at $20/panel it's already true.

 

[betstarship]

In other words, "if only I had timed the market perfectly, ooooo how rich I would be!"

We could all say the same (and just as many have said the opposite: "if only I hadn't guessed wrong, tried to outsmart the market, ooooh how much I wouldn't have lost!")

The case has been made here time and time again that we can't predict the market, that "time in the market is better than trying to time the market".

Stop rolling the dice IMHO. Pick your risk tolerance level as far as TSLA / ETF / mutual funds / fixed income ratio and stick with it. Just a suggestion, not advice.

HODL.

ok np sure why not if that's what you want to assume, no skin off my back. with that said, there's a lot of assumptions in what you're writing here and nothing I led you to write out...

the difference between market timing vs latent/actual and under/over valued are different mechanisms on how to look at investments...if that helps.