Regarding declining market share ... an important point that I haven't seen people talking about recently; only that Tesla is losing market share, how the competition is growing faster, and how Tesla can't sustain what it's got.
Tesla losing market share has been an inevitability from the beginning when they went off and got practically all of the market. The math makes any other outcome impossible. To make up some numbers to illustrate...
If Tesla sold 100 units in year 1 while the competition sold 10 units, then Tesla has 91% market share (10/11ths).
In year 2, Tesla grows 50% and sells 150 units. Meanwhile the competition goes nuts and sells 50 units. Tesla's growth in units is higher, but as a % Tesla grows 50% while competition grows 500%. OMG!
Then people project off these numbers and conclude that Tesla will grow to 225 in year 3, while competition grows to 250 in year 3.
I made up the numbers to illustrate the idea. The question I ask myself - who is going to add 1M units to their 2022 unit deliveries first and faster? Who is making the decisions, doing the engineering, doing the investment, etc.. to sustain or even increase their growth rate? Who out there has a chance of matching Tesla's growth rate once they clear 1M or 2M units? Heck - who is going to get to 1M units before 2030?
Growing at a high % off of nearly non-existent numbers is "easy". By "easy" I mean that effectively every car company since ~1900 that has tried to has gone bankrupt and mostly disappeared. We just assume that the current car companies can easily transition to EV manufacturing. But can they? Are EVs more like a new product / market that, like the ICEv market, is so difficult that virtually all entrants go bankrupt and fail at?
So far the economics and evidence I see is more consistent with this being a new market that exhibits characteristics of the car market - an important one being that new entrants (including incumbent ICEv manufacturers entering this new business) nearly all go bankrupt and fail at. As opposed to this being a new product line in the already existing car market - maybe it really is enough different that it isn't just a new product line in an existing market. H'mm...
But in the meantime, looking at growth rates, investors can get all excited about growing from 50k to 100k units in a year, and project out the inevitable demise of Tesla who can only grow at 1/2 or less of that rate.
Rate matter. Absolute numbers also matters, and a high rate off of small numbers is "easy".