Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

I don’t follow delivery threads but sounds like a potential selection bias risk. I would generally be influenced by stories of quick delivery over long delivery simply because a reasonably basic fairness principal is likely being implemented at least within broadly similar geographic subsets.

For sure. Not to mention, anyone who received their car in a timely fashion isn't going to be wasting their time prowling a delivery thread. But there are definitely a BUNCH of September 2020 (battery day) orders like me who are still waiting, and receiving total radio silence from Tesla.

 

[-=buzz=-]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423456008832131073

Thanks

3 questions you could maybe check out in a future visit.
- Are those pikes of castings along the fence to the railyard rejects or are they stockpiling them like that?
- How many types of castings are on site? (Some zoom shots of the various piles)
- Regarding the new installation beside the Gigapress. Is there no similar equipment at the extraction point on the other side? (Like if was shown in the Giga Shanghai videos.) Or is that for an additional capability/capacity?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Macros down slightly:

US Tech 100 Contract​

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TSLA up slightly:

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Cheers!

 

[jbcarioca]

We’ll, it all depends on what the car is. Smart Car or Camry.

Camry is regarded as a large car in most world markets. It was designed by Toyota specifically fir the US market to compete with Ford Taurus and Chevrolet Impala. It is sold in many countries now as a large inexpensive car.

The China car will almost certainly compete with VW Golf etc. That class sells well in Canada and Mexico, less so, but still significant in some parts of the US. The Smart had a brief flurry of success when first introduced but that class appears almost exclusively in large dense cities.

 

[engle]

Does anyone think the fact we've heard zilch about the model X might indicate they might be digging deeper into the refresh toolkit?

Hey Wicket! Wicket good!! (I was nicknamed "Doctor Devo" by my frat brothers at Hopkins for good reason.)

The Model X (and Model S) product manager told me the X Plaid is coming out "soon" on July 26 and smiled. This was after he interrupted me capturing this 50-second walkaround: (shameless 17,275-view youtube video plug but it isn't monetized ) I think he subscribes to Elon's definition of "soon". He also asked "Did you order a Model S Plaid" hinting it's going to be awhile if you're waiting for the X Plaid...

Tesla Model X Plaid Walkaround and Peek Inside at Fremont Factory in 4K

The vehicle I saw looks 100% complete except maybe a few of the 10,000 hidden parts are missing? My guess is they are prioritizing Model S Plaid right now to ramp that first without the Model X Plaid ramp slowing down the shared production line. They may also be giving S Plaid the available Plaid skateboards - that's assuming X Plaid skateboards are the same? It is easier to ramp the Model S Plaid than the Model X Plaid with wacky doors. Also, nothing competes with Model X Plaid doors, so people are more likely to wait for it, especially if they already have an obsolete X. A friend going off-lease on a Model S (I convinced him to lease his 2016 in March 2016 X P90D when I leased mine) said he would buy the Porsche Taycan if he could get one today because he likes the styling, but cannot until December. I convinced him to extend his lease and get a Model S Long Range, instead...

4680 Cell Speculation for Model X Plaid - 340 miles EPA sucks they should wait for ~500 and "do it right" like Tri-Motor CT IMHO

I have been watching Est. Delivery for Model X Plaid here in Fremont. It was December-January July 26th. Now, 11 days later, it jumped to March-April 2022!! My video cannot be responsible for all these orders lol. I think when Tesla finally delivers the Model X Plaid it will come with 4680 cells for ~500 miles EPA range as it was originally supposed to per Elon's Oct 1, 2020 tweet: (they cannot list it that way on the order page now because it will Osbourne the Model S Plaid.) I wonder what the soonest "delivery" month is for the earliest Model X Plaid orders? (Probably posted on TMC somewhere but I have no time to search for it.)

Elon Musk: Tesla Model S Plaid To Have Structural Battery, 4680 Cells

 

[NicoV]

Not sure why people speculate like this. Biden was very clear in his words - $7,500 credit + $2,500 for American made + $2,500 for Union made.

I am not a lawyer, but I think this will violate trade agreements with the EU. It puts EVs from VW, Mercedes, BMW, Audi and Volvo at a 5000 dollar disadvantage. I would consider this illegal government support.

 

[engle]

I am not a lawyer, but I think this will violate trade agreements with the EU. It puts EVs from VW, Mercedes, BMW, Audi and Volvo at a 5000 dollar disadvantage. I would consider this illegal government support.

Most of these companies have US manufacturing facilities to avoid transatlantic shipping, etc. For example, Mercedes SUVs are built in Alabama as I recall for the US market. [true: Not EVs Yet but They Should!]

I'm in a good mood because I just ordered a Model Y Performance to replace this: (good mood from Thursday contactless test drive not waiting 6-8 weeks...)

2021 White Tesla Model 3 Runs Red Light & T-Bones My 2018 White Model 3 in Fremont, CA - No Injuries

We need more non-injury-red-light-runners (NIRLR's) in Fremont driving new Teslas to total their cars while hitting older Teslas to increase high-margin Model Y Performance sales in Q3 and Q4!! (since most everything else is sold out until 2022)

The extra $2.5K for "union made" is part of Sen. Debbie Stabenow's bill that passed the U.S. Senate. Which state is she from? You guessed it! Corrupt Michican!!

Stabenow bill to boost EV tax credits to $12,500 passes Senate panel

"Washington — Legislation from Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Lansing, that would raise consumer tax credits for electric vehicles to $12,500 for the next five years passed a Senate committee Wednesday.

The provision would expand the $7,500 tax credit for vehicles costing less than $80,000, eliminate the cap for automakers and add $2,500 for autos built by union members and $2,500 for vehicles assembled in the United States. "

"President Joe Biden has proposed $100 billion in consumer tax credits for electric vehicle purchases and has said those incentives shouldn't go to luxury cars. He's also endorsed a United Auto Workers call for federal subsidies not to go to vehicles assembled outside of the U.S." [*]

So Model S and Model X Plaid will get no love from Stab's bill, nor the CT Tri-Motor and Roadster 2. More first world 1% problems here This is all "optics" for the masses since business owners can quickly write-off the heavy Model X and Cybertruck. ssshhh!! Don't tell Debbie!

AIRC Tesla production associates get some stock so they make more than their "union" brethren...

[*] I love this quote from Senator Lung Cancer and Climate Change: "This bill is anything but a free-market bill," said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas. "This is an ideological jihad against the status quo, which is one where many, many jobs in our country depend on the oil and gas sector."

 

[OrthoSurg]

I am not a lawyer, but I think this will violate trade agreements with the EU. It puts EVs from VW, Mercedes, BMW, Audi and Volvo at a 5000 dollar disadvantage. I would consider this illegal government support.

At least it’s clear that the point is not pushing EVs. His agenda is clearly to push unions from crumpling OEMs who are lobbying through the corrupt Biden administration like never before. It is really sad to see American gov being completely blind to the greatest company in the current world while Chinese are helping Nio like there is no tomorrow and subsidizing their EV companies.

 

[NicoV]

Most of these companies have US manufacturing facilities.

Not (yet) for EVs.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Most of these companies have US manufacturing facilities. For example, Mercedes SUVs are built in Alabama as I recall for the US market.
The extra $2.5K for "union made" is part of Sen. Debbie Stabenow's bill that passed the U.S. Senate. Which state is she from You guessed it! Michican!!

Stabenow bill to boost EV tax credits to $12,500 passes Senate panel

"Washington — Legislation from Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Lansing, that would raise consumer tax credits for electric vehicles to $12,500 for the next five years passed a Senate committee Wednesday.

The provision would expand the $7,500 tax credit for vehicles costing less than $80,000, eliminate the cap for automakers and add $2,500 for autos built by union members and $2,500 for vehicles assembled in the United States. "

"President Joe Biden has proposed $100 billion in consumer tax credits for electric vehicle purchases and has said those incentives shouldn't go to luxury cars. He's also endorsed a United Auto Workers call for federal subsidies not to go to vehicles assembled outside of the U.S."

So Model S and Model X Plaid will get no love from Stab's bill, nor the CT Tri-Motor and Roadster 2. More first world 1% problems here This is all "optics" for the masses since business owners can quickly write-off the heavy Model X and Cybertruck. ssshhh!! Don't tell Debbie!

AIRC Tesla production associates get some stock so they make more than their "union" brethren...

Probably the only (volume) USA exporter of cars to EU is Tesla. Glad they have China & Berlin in case of trade dispute. I can't see how EU will allow USA made cars to have an advantage. I forget the chicken tax history but I don't think it will be repeated.

 

[ZachF]

I think the biggest thing that Tesla can do to change this sort of nonsense at the White House is build next US plant in Michigan.

Ironically, if the Austin plant eventually ends up making 2m cars per year, it would alone be making about as many cars as the entire state of Michigan (currently no.1 car producing state)...

 

[wtlloyd]

At least it’s clear that the point is not pushing EVs. His agenda is clearly to push unions from crumpling OEMs who are lobbying through the corrupt Biden administration like never before. It is really sad to see American gov being completely blind to the greatest company in the current world while Chinese are helping Nio like there is no tomorrow and subsidizing their EV companies.

Ahhhh, genuinely sorry to downvote you, but please don't characterize the Biden administration as corrupt. All political systems inherently are susceptible to influence as they by design reflect the wishes of their influencers. And we know money talks, big money talks loudest.
Biden is a good and capable man. He does not share our exact orientation toward the severity of and solution to resolve climate crisis. Politicians, at least the "good" ones, see donations not as personal swag bags, but as fuel for the political machine that puts them in office so that they can legislate.
Lastly, yesterdays dinosaur meetup was about changing public opinion toward EVs, not congratulating the smartest kid in the class. It was Democrats selling their Economic/Climate agenda, something they have repeatedly failed to do with previous great legislation. It's not enough to say "Here's this great thing, obviously everyone will support it, no?" I refer you to what happened with the ACA just a short dozen years ago, when Dems went silent throughout the summer, and Repubs bellowed "Death panels!" at town hall meetings in every town. Getting the message out by inviting it's foes to support it on camera is smart messaging, not graft. Having Poindexter, the class genius, in the room as an obvious taunt when cajoling the class bullies to act better just provides a distraction and steals from the praise you are leading them with.
I'm a huge admirer of Musk and what he has and is doing. I believe in the company, ALL my (paltry) investments are with Tesla. But the smart kids just keep on doing what they are doing, and the dull ones need the attention. That's just a fact.

 

[CLK350]

Amnerica / Senior moments FTFY

Also from the archives - 2016:
" ..
BIDEN: I had to pay this man $10. He's from the New York Times. We had a bet: which is the faster car, the newer Cadillac or the new Musk car. Which?
POOLER: Tesla.
BIDEN: The Tesla. I bet the Cadillac.

publicpool.gawker.com/subject-biden-meets-cardinal-parolin-discusses-bet-s

Subject: Biden meets Cardinal Parolin, discusses bet, seeks absolution but not $10: pool 4​

poolreports
4/29/16 8:50am

From: Harris, Gardiner [email protected]
Sent: Friday, April 29, 2016 13:58
To: Goodman, Meghan K. EOP/OVP
Subject: Biden meets Cardinal Parolin, discusses bet, seeks absolution but not $10: pool 4

After meeting privately with Pope Francis, VPOTUS met with Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State. The two men shook hands in the Treaty Room and then moved into a second room.

Here is a transcript of Mr. Biden's remarks, courtesy of Michael A. Memoli of the Los Angeles Times:


BIDEN: What an honor to see you again.
(SHAKE)
BIDEN: I don't know whether you know, your photograph is hanging in my office.
PAROLIN: Oh yeah?
BIDEN; Yes, from our meeting.
PAROLIN: You have already met with the Holy Father.
BIDEN: I have met with the Holy Father. And I've met with these guys, too.
(GESTURES TO POOL THEN GRIPS YOUR POOLER)
BIDEN: I had to pay this man $10. He's from the New York Times. We had a bet: which is the faster car, the newer Cadillac or the new Musk car. Which?
POOLER: Tesla.
BIDEN: The Tesla. I bet the Cadillac.
POOLER: He went for the old technology. I went for the new.
PAROLIN: Oh yes?
BIDEN: The Tesla's two tenths of a second faster. But I lost. I paid my $10. (LOUDER TO ENTIRE POOL, ROOM AND PERHAPS CITY) I want the record to show, I paid my $10.
MEMOLI (CATHOLIC REPRESENTATIVE IN POOL): Does that count as a confession, sir?
BIDEN: I'm seeking absolution!

Betting is not a sin but tends to be discouraged by religious authorities. Timothy 6:10 warns against a love of money, and Jesus's run-in with the money-changers suggested a strong aversion.

Still, Biden's bet seems unlikely to generate the same consternation as his support of abortion rights and gay marriage. Cardinal Parolin seemed unconcerned.

Gardiner Harris
White House Correspondent
The New York Times
1627 I St. NW Suite 700
Washington DC 20006
Desk: +202-xxx-xxxx
Cell: +202-xxx-xxxx

 

[Prunesquallor]

Camry is regarded as a large car in most world markets. It was designed by Toyota specifically fir the US market to compete with Ford Taurus and Chevrolet Impala. It is sold in many countries now as a large inexpensive car.

The China car will almost certainly compete with VW Golf etc. That class sells well in Canada and Mexico, less so, but still significant in some parts of the US. The Smart had a brief flurry of success when first introduced but that class appears almost exclusively in large dense cities.

As I recall, the new model was never touted as being "small", it was touted as being $25,000.

 

[ZachF]

TBH, this Tesla snub thing is probably going to end up being a net positive.

In the eyes of some they incorrectly think Tesla survived only based on government largess.

Seeing every US automaker except Tesla lining up to basically suckle on that government teet while Tesla enjoys the largest profit margins of any of them will likely change the mind of some of these same people.

 

[ZachF]

As I recall, the new model was never touted as being "small", it was touted as being $25,000.

I suspect Carolla-sized.

I can't wait for the Model 2 Performance... That's going to be a fun car. The kids are going to love it.

 

[madodel]

Amnerica / Senior moments FTFY


View attachment 692880


Also from the archives - 2016:
" ..
BIDEN: I had to pay this man $10. He's from the New York Times. We had a bet: which is the faster car, the newer Cadillac or the new Musk car. Which?
POOLER: Tesla.
BIDEN: The Tesla. I bet the Cadillac.

publicpool.gawker.com/subject-biden-meets-cardinal-parolin-discusses-bet-s

Subject: Biden meets Cardinal Parolin, discusses bet, seeks absolution but not $10: pool 4​

poolreports
4/29/16 8:50am

From: Harris, Gardiner [email protected]
Sent: Friday, April 29, 2016 13:58
To: Goodman, Meghan K. EOP/OVP
Subject: Biden meets Cardinal Parolin, discusses bet, seeks absolution but not $10: pool 4

After meeting privately with Pope Francis, VPOTUS met with Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State. The two men shook hands in the Treaty Room and then moved into a second room.

Here is a transcript of Mr. Biden's remarks, courtesy of Michael A. Memoli of the Los Angeles Times:


BIDEN: What an honor to see you again.
(SHAKE)
BIDEN: I don't know whether you know, your photograph is hanging in my office.
PAROLIN: Oh yeah?
BIDEN; Yes, from our meeting.
PAROLIN: You have already met with the Holy Father.
BIDEN: I have met with the Holy Father. And I've met with these guys, too.
(GESTURES TO POOL THEN GRIPS YOUR POOLER)
BIDEN: I had to pay this man $10. He's from the New York Times. We had a bet: which is the faster car, the newer Cadillac or the new Musk car. Which?
POOLER: Tesla.
BIDEN: The Tesla. I bet the Cadillac.
POOLER: He went for the old technology. I went for the new.
PAROLIN: Oh yes?
BIDEN: The Tesla's two tenths of a second faster. But I lost. I paid my $10. (LOUDER TO ENTIRE POOL, ROOM AND PERHAPS CITY) I want the record to show, I paid my $10.
MEMOLI (CATHOLIC REPRESENTATIVE IN POOL): Does that count as a confession, sir?
BIDEN: I'm seeking absolution!

Betting is not a sin but tends to be discouraged by religious authorities. Timothy 6:10 warns against a love of money, and Jesus's run-in with the money-changers suggested a strong aversion.

Still, Biden's bet seems unlikely to generate the same consternation as his support of abortion rights and gay marriage. Cardinal Parolin seemed unconcerned.

Gardiner Harris
White House Correspondent
The New York Times
1627 I St. NW Suite 700
Washington DC 20006
Desk: +202-xxx-xxxx
Cell: +202-xxx-xxxx

Did you know what a Tesla was 5 years ago and what it was capable of? Most people didn't. Most probably still don't. I'm not thrilled with the current plan but it goes in the right direction. The previous administration would be proposing legislation to promote coal fueled cars. And nothing has been passed yet, just proposed. EVs being promoted, promotes people to investigate the best technology and that is Tesla. This administration is not anti-science. In the end we win. We all win.

 

[elasalle]

As I recall, the new model was never touted as being "small", it was touted as being $25,000.

Tesla has asked China designers to design the 25 K

the most popular EV in China by sales is the Wuling whatever
EU and Japan keep saying S and X and even the 3 is too big

so China local inspiration for EU Japan needs

 

[ZachF]

Not (yet) for EVs.

Anyone have stats on numbers of US-manufactured EVs by brand?

My suspicion is that Tesla probably makes up 90%+ of this total.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Ahhhh, genuinely sorry to downvote you, but please don't characterize the Biden administration as corrupt. All political systems inherently are susceptible to influence as they by design reflect the wishes of their influencers. And we know money talks, big money talks loudest.
Biden is a good and capable man. He does not share our exact orientation toward the severity of and solution to resolve climate crisis. Politicians, at least the "good" ones, see donations not as personal swag bags, but as fuel for the political machine that puts them in office so that they can legislate.
Lastly, yesterdays dinosaur meetup was about changing public opinion toward EVs, not congratulating the smartest kid in the class. It was Democrats selling their Economic/Climate agenda, something they have repeatedly failed to do with previous great legislation. It's not enough to say "Here's this great thing, obviously everyone will support it, no?" I refer you to what happened with the ACA just a short dozen years ago, when Dems went silent throughout the summer, and Repubs bellowed "Death panels!" at town hall meetings in every town. Getting the message out by inviting it's foes to support it on camera is smart messaging, not graft. Having Poindexter, the class genius, in the room as an obvious taunt when cajoling the class bullies to act better just provides a distraction and steals from the praise you are leading them with.
I'm a huge admirer of Musk and what he has and is doing. I believe in the company, ALL my (paltry) investments are with Tesla. But the smart kids just keep on doing what they are doing, and the dull ones need the attention. That's just a fact.

You just described corruption.
to sway someone’s opinion with donations.
Yesterday, we saw exactly the effects of it. Politicians talk about the biggest donators even if they are not the strongest agent of change. Failure to acknowledge some company because it doesn’t bribes you is part of the problem.

I don’t know what to think anymore, after listening to yesterday’s Biden’s speech while Trump invited Musk to the American made concertation table. Elon did not stay for long because of the anti Arabic immigration bills Trump passed after but at least he made the effort to invite on the of the greatest manufacturer Americans had since Henry Ford.

there is a probably a good word for that so everybody agrees, establishment.