Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

Guess TSLA, along with the rest of the NASDAQ, is a covid stock?

 

[Stretch2727]

Political donations are not inherently bribery. They are an aspect of free speech, although I strongly disagree with our Supreme Court decision "Citizens United" case which perverted the practice.

The issue I have with the position taken by Biden is that union jobs are the only "good jobs". Tesla is the undisputed world leader in the EV space and have created a lot of "good jobs". Not including them was a mistake given what they have accomplished in the EV space.

Tesla should be the pride of this country both from the left and right political circles.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Jobs report due at 830 today looks to be on the market’s mind.

Futures Await Jobs Report; Two Tech Titans Setting Up Again

The Nasdaq led a solid rally before Friday's jobs report. Carvana and Cloudflare moved late. Apple and Microsoft are in focus.

www.investors.com

“The Labor Department releases the July jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise 900,000 with the unemployment rate falling to 5.7%. The July jobs report comes two days after the ADP employment report estimated private employment grew by 330,000 last month, far below estimates.
A strong jobs report could encourage the Federal Reserve to begin discussing winding down its massive asset purchases. A weak report could push "taper talk" past the September Fed meeting.”


edit / report releases update: July jobs report: Economy adds back 943,000 payrolls, unemployment rate falls to 5.4%

 

[keydiver]

Might differ from country to country. In Germany where most newer cars are company cars, these cars frequently get returned with the charging cable never touched and still in its original shrinkwrap. Also many companies hand out fuel cards to their employees so the employees don't pay for fuel themselves. That definiely also has an impact

It happens here in the US too. One of my neighbors has a C-Max hybrid. He told me he used to plug it in, but then he bought a camper, which he parks right outside the garage. The C-Max is now too far for his extension cord to reach, so he never charges it. I can see lots of people doing this here also if they are getting $12,500 off, which would put the price down below the pure ICE version sitting next to it in the dealer's lot. So sad.

 

[elasalle]

View attachment 692917

Guess TSLA, along with the rest of the NASDAQ, is a covid stock?

 

[S3XY]

We’ll, it all depends on what the car is. Smart Car or Camry.

I'm thinking it's probably a Smamry.

 

[Krugerrand]

Political donations are not inherently bribery.

That’s like saying money isn’t inherently evil. Of course it’s not, but it kinda is.

Now where’d that sabotage meme go?

 

[Knightshade]

The issue I have with the position taken by Biden is that union jobs are the only "good jobs". Tesla is the undisputed world leader in the EV space and have created a lot of "good jobs". Not including them was a mistake given what they have accomplished in the EV space.

Tesla should be the pride of this country both from the left and right political circles.

I prefer to read this a little more generously- in that he feels union jobs have some assurance of being good jobs (from a worker perspective).

Whereas without them it's really at the whim of the company.

Tesla is an excellent employer because they choose to be. Meanwhile Bezos makes people pee in bottles because they're....a less excellent employer.

To me a better path for Biden in a perfect world would be adding some basic (and enforced) labor protections at the federal level, so that all workers get them regardless of being unionized or not-- but politically that's a huge lift since most donations to politicians are from employers who don't want those regulations.

 

[redan]

Add Tesla driving app to long list of disruptive technologies:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423542371774472197

 

[thx1139]

Macros tanked at 08:30 ET: (doubtless on some economic news headline)

View attachment 692913

TSLA followed shortly thereafter:

View attachment 692914

All "Big-Tech" is down; only companies with a moat or a FED account are up:

Components of the S&P 500​

#	Company	Symbol	Weight	Price	Chg	% Chg
1	Apple Inc.	AAPL	6.151914	146.37	-0.69	(-0.47%)
2	Microsoft Corporation	MSFT	5.815102	288.65	-0.87	(-0.30%)
3	Amazon.com Inc.	AMZN	3.859596	3,363.02	-12.97	(-0.38%)
4	Facebook Inc. Class A	FB	2.319305	360.85	-2.12	(-0.58%)
5	Alphabet Inc. Class A	GOOGL	2.185482	2,719.50	-5.53	(-0.20%)
6	Alphabet Inc. Class C	GOOG	2.079767	2,730.65	-8.15	(-0.30%)
7	Tesla Inc	TSLA	1.468739	711.78	-2.85	(-0.40%)
8	Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B	BRK.B	1.416341	281.50	1.29	(0.46%)
9	NVIDIA Corporation	NVDA	1.371476	205.20	-1.17	(-0.57%)
10	JPMorgan Chase & Co.	JPM	1.236354	155.29	2.14	(1.40%)
11	Johnson & Johnson	JNJ	1.219793	174.00	0.31	(0.18%)
12	Visa Inc. Class A	V	1.084648	240.50	0.29	(0.12%)
13	UnitedHealth Group Incorporated	UNH	1.034823	412.85	1.66	(0.40%)
14	Home Depot Inc.	HD	0.94452	334.13	1.02	(0.31%)

Cheers!

Jobs Report was better then expected. Nearly 1 million new jobs, so of course that is taken as a negative. Likely fear of inflation again.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla has a 5 month wait for the Y. If these Ys get a $10k credit, how long will the wait line be?

Option #1 for Tesla is raise the price by $9k (considering the competition from the $10k cheaper Bolts and Mach-Es - do the latter even qualify for the credits?)

Option #2 is to increase production & over-supply(temporarily) and force the competition to give away credits to consumers rather than raise prices. The 2 upcoming factories are just perfect in timing (actually, a bit late) to help the mission. I bet Elon hates having to raise the car prices and it was clear this would happen as soon as Biden got elected, but Elon really has no choice right now and up to when Austin and Berlin are pumping cars out at a full capacity. It's amazing that Elon saw this coming and acted on it 1yr+ ago. It's a game of matching demand and supply and projecting the S-curve into the future.
I mean, we all know Tesla is supply constrained, but by how much? If you 2x your production is there enough demand? The demand builds up as a function of time(more people had a chance to experience a Tesla) and lowering prices(this doesn't help lately) and I'm definitely impressed with how Elon's projections and building out of manufacturing capacity is aligning with the anticipated demand.

I remember some people questioning a year ago if there would be enough cars and if the waiting lines would keep growing. I thought the same, but could not believe it fully. Seemed so odd with all the FUD going around. Now we see it happening in real time.

So, to answer the question. I think the government support will speed up Tesla. Elon will not be happy with 35% margins just because that is what credits and "competition" is forcing Tesla to do. He will increase production asap to drop those margins to 25%. Well, then there's FSD, but that is separate. I'm in sync with @wholemarsblog in thinking that Tesla will drop hardware margins to zero if they can make up 25% in software only. Long live OEMs.

Government support will not "speed up Tesla" except to the extent it wakes people up, particularly suppliers of raw materials. It tells them the race to produce is on. So this reduces the severity of future supply constraints. Looking out a few years, it could allow Tesla to grow more quickly but Tesla production and delivery was already poised to explode without any government support. You are witnessing the politicians and the industry laggards jumping on the bandwagon before it leaves town. They want to claim they helped create the EV sales boom we are about to witness. This is the same EV sales boom we would witness with or without government subsidies except it gives the laggards a fighting chance of not going bankrupt and it increases Tesla's margins to gobsmacking levels.

Tesla has already been expanding as quickly as human resources allow (without becoming error prone and wasteful to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars or more), Tesla margins were already poised to surprise. Now, their margins are poised to shock and stun. The outrage at the government subsidies creating these sky-high margins will be something to see. Tesla will probably be creative to keep actual profit from going too high by spending money to increase production capacity, increase battery supply and increase raw materials production and recycling. Tesla in 2022-2024 is going to be an amazing thing to see as long as big oil can't figure out a way to ruin the party. It would take an event of major significance to disrupt this party (and that's why I bother to mention it). If such an event occurs, it will probably be too small and weak to significantly disrupt a movement this strong and it probably won't be immediately obvious it was engineered by big oil, but that probably just means you are not looking hard enough.

This is a dangerous time for humanity. Big oil and big auto have been best of friends for many decades. That relationship has started to crack a little bit, soon it will burst wide open. For the first time in the last century, their goals do not align. Oh, sure, they will be polite with each other and pretend like they are still friends, they don't know how to do anything else, but such relationships cannot continue without mutual goals. Disruptions such as this are always cascading by nature. It will precipitate other disruptions. Exactly what can be difficult to predict but I suspect we are still at least a couple of years away from the largest of them.

If government really wanted to speed the transition they would have focused on battery production and subsidizing/guaranteeing mining loans. Don't be fooled, this has nothing to do with speeding the transition to sustainable energy and everything to do with bailing out the big automakers one more time, a bailout that is politically expedient only because it is being done under the guise of environmentalism/climate change and the American worker.

 

[Todd Burch]

NASDAQ is only down 0.28% right now. Not exactly "tanking" I don't think.

 

[Nocturnal]

New roof is complete. 8.8kwh solar system + 1 power wall incoming. Pending city permits and HOA approvals, but I'm not expecting any problems. I wouldn't mind more battery but my installer only has one in stock and it's months out to get any new ones. My local grid is among the most stable in the nation so I think I can make do.

Also, my ex looks to be moving forward with the Y. I was surprised to hear that she was wanted FSD. Bullish.

 

[Todd Burch]

Also, my ex looks to be moving forward with the Y. I was surprised to hear that she was wanted FSD. Bullish.

I'd like to propose that we stop using the term "bullish". It sounds wishy-washy. Noncommittal. Unsure. Lacking in confidence, similar to how I sound when I say "I am sexy-ish".

I'd like to propose that instead we say "Bully" instead. Now THAT sounds confident. Maybe that's what the market needs to hear to kickstart the whales into buy mode.

 

[S3XY]

We covered this weeks (maybe a couple months?) ago when the TX legislature ended their normal session without passing anything about this.

The car can not physically be in Texas when it is sold.

So yes, it would have to leave Texas (if built there) then get brought back in.

Not only was this widely reported, Elon himself mentioned he'd appreciate if the law was changed so it was no longer true

Which would make no sense for him to say if it didn't actually require changing the law.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1398029410289127424

But if you want to read some law too here ya go:


Go here:

OCCUPATIONS CODE CHAPTER 2301. SALE OR LEASE OF MOTOR VEHICLES

Then scroll down to:

(c) Except as provided by this section, a manufacturer or distributor may not directly or indirectly:


(3) act in the capacity of:

(A) a franchised dealer or dealership, as defined by Sections 2301.002(16) and (8), respectively, for the same type of motor vehicle that:

(i) the manufacturer manufactures or distributes; or

(ii) the distributor distributes; or

(B) a nonfranchised dealer.


If you then click the hyperlink for 2301.002(16) it takes you to the definition of what acting like such a dealer would be- including " is engaged in the business of buying, selling, or exchanging new motor vehicles"


So, to sum up, Tesla, as a manufacturer, can not engage in the business of buying, selling, or exchanging new motor vehicles in texas

Which is what they'd be doing letting you purchase (even via their website) a vehicle in texas at the time of sale


The "except as provided" bit BTW, in case you imagine a loophole there, is regarding basically allowing a manufacturer to bail out a failed dealership, but it must be a legit licensed franchised one BEFORE they do so, and they have to sell it back off to someone else within 12 months generally.

What would stop them from selling a car that isn't even on the production line yet? The car would not be physically in Texas. Hell, it's not physically anywhere at the time. Just allocate a separate set of VINs for Texas sales and then produce a batch of Texas cars with that set of VINs. This would obviously screw with their current batch process of like builds but if the demand in Texas is large enough they might be able to accommodate both (only Texas and like builds). There would be a higher cost from smaller batches but maybe that would be less than taking a finished car for a joy ride to Louisiana. At the very least they should be able to do this with Cybertrucks where you can get them in any color you like as long as it's SS.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observer

Biden’s Electric Vehicle Summit.

Manufactures caught smoking in the bathroom have been called into the Principals Office for corrective conditioning.

Since Elon/Tesla do not smoke, they have been left out to continue training Forest for the marathon.

Thanks Elon/Tesla for keeping your eye on the ball.

 

[Knightshade]

What would stop them from selling a car that isn't even on the production line yet? The car would not be physically in Texas. Hell, it's not physically anywhere at the time. Just allocate a separate set of VINs for Texas sales and then produce a batch of Texas cars with that set of VINs. This would obviously screw with their current batch process of like builds but if the demand in Texas is large enough they might be able to accommodate both (only Texas and like builds). There would be a higher cost from smaller batches but maybe that would be less than taking a finished car for a joy ride to Louisiana. At the very least they should be able to do this with Cybertrucks where you can get them in any color you like as long as it's SS.

The sale has to take place out of state. You can't sell something out of state that has never been out of state.


This is even more obviously the case for Cybertruck that is ONLY built IN Texas but can not be sold by Tesla IN Texas.


If there had been a clever "Well, the law says I can't sell crack, but it doesn't say I can't sell cardboard boxes that happen to have crack in them!" work around Tesla wouldn't have spent a bunch of $ lobbying Texas lawmakers, and Elon wouldn't have repeatedly said this was a problem and they would like the legislature to fix it.

 

[scaesare]

Tesla needs a “Not a union” union

The "Un-ionized EV Builder's Guild"

 

[scaesare]

I'd like to propose that we stop using the term "bullish". It sounds wishy-washy. Noncommittal. Unsure. Lacking in confidence, similar to how I sound when I say "I am sexy-ish".

I'd like to propose that instead we say "Bully" instead. Now THAT sounds confident. Maybe that's what the market needs to hear to kickstart the whales into buy mode.

And a suggestion for usage:

"This development has an extremely high BAF quotient!"

 

[SOULPEDL]

So, you want to short an ETF that is short ARKK? Interesting thought but I'm pretty sure it would just track your returns if you were long ARKK, minus fees and inefficiencies. So I think your returns would be much better just going long ARKK.

The interesting thing about this short ETF is that they will have to buy TSLA whenever ARKK sells TSLA. Because I believe ARKK has a history of TSLA buys/sells that increase their returns, I can't imagine anyone thinking it would be a good idea to short ARKK (rather than just shorting the individual components like TSLA). But it seems to me that the existence of a short fund like this should serve to reduce the volatility of the components of ARKK, including TSLA.

Was surprised ARK sold again yesterday. This seems personal. Meanwhile, just bought 10 Chairs this AM.