Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lessmog]

Last night:

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Well, that's one plaid sight message encrypted en claire!
Not that I get what it means ...

 

[Lessmog]

I will say this - all things being equal (which obviously they are not at this point), Tesla will not be able to compete with Lucid if they continue to build cars in Fremont. Lucid is building their factory in Arizona I believe. As Elon stated a week ago, California workers have a sense of entitlement, and they simply don't have to work very hard (always some type of gov't safety net to catch them and they know it). Not to mention the higher labor costs. So, it's going to be hard for Tesla to compete in the long run if they continue to build cars in California.

There's no way Tesla could sell the CyberTruck at its stated prices if it were built in Fremont. I'm really anxious to see what happens to the price of the Y once it is being built in Texas. The paint quality will at least improve by a large amount.

Did Georgia lose a car factory, or why all the jealousy? Honestly don't get it. But not a USian.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

It can be situational, but generally I agree. Some folks focus on the fact that you can charge faster than you can deplete but that really depends on how quickly you can get to the SC. Some of my normal SC stops are 5-10 minutes off the highway.

The funny thing is, I'll sit there and try to calculate it all out in my mind. I've even rolled into the garage with 3 miles of range before to keep from stopping - probably saved 5 minutes overall.

I will say this - it's hard for me to drive less than 75, but I'll do it occasionally. Even 75 seems like you're crawling these days. But with AP, it's a ton better. At least you can just set the cruise on 75 and kind of chill out. When I have to drive long distances (which I NEVER do any more), I'm going to drive as fast as think I can get away with - can't stand to drive and want to hurry up and get it over with.

BTW - another of my concerns with stopping at SC's is the safety aspect. Man, the Macon, GA one downtown is down right SCARY!!! If you didn't have any method of defense with you there, you are nuts. I really wish Tesla had an emergency release on the charge cable. It sucks just sitting there at 2am knowing if someone were to do anything stupid, you can't move the car - and you sure aren't going to get out and try to unplug it real quickly. So, that has also motivated me to drive slower occasionally. Fortunately, Tesla put in another SC in Macon, in a much better location.

 

[SpeedGoat]

Did Georgia lose a car factory, or why all the jealousy? Honestly don't get it. But not a USian.

Well, ask yourself why Lucid is in AZ, Nikola (yeah yeah) is going to build in AZ, Tesla built their Gigafactory in NV and is now threatening to move out of CA... the whole point is to not be in CA.

 

[mikevbf]

Last night:

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Translation: plaid mode coming.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Do you have a source for the 30% larger battery? According to Car and Driver, the battery is much smaller now.

Lucid Air EV Has a Projected 517 Miles of Range

"Lucid recently shared its slippery 0.21 drag coefficient, and earlier this year, at an event for reservation holders, Rawlinson showed off the vehicle's single unit that houses the transmission, inverter, and motor. Lucid hasn't shared its battery capacity yet, but it's lower than what the automaker had originally planned. "In fact, we started off with a 130-kilowatt-hour pack . . . we announced that back in 2016. It's not that size. We've gone down quite a lot. And that's what I'm thrilled about because I want to get the numbers with a smaller pack, not a bigger pack," Rawlinson told C/D."

Lucid Makes Tesla Eat Dust With Air's Estimated 517-Mile EPA Range

 

[Lessmog]

Well, ask yourself why Lucid is in AZ, Nikola (yeah yeah) is going to build in AZ, Tesla built their Gigafactory in NV and is now threatening to move out of CA... the whole point is to not be in CA.

But Tesla did get a pretty fantastic deal on Fremont (thanks to those same factors you infer) and seems to have built a pretty fantastic and dedicated production team there too. So not all can be all that bad?

I understand housing and living costs are silly in that silly valley, but on the other hand there is plenty of smart people too.

Just as well I'm not Elon. On many counts.

 

[ggr]

True, but if you have to stop and charge to make your destination at least one more time, you are far better off to slow down and avoid the stop (if possible). The time it takes to replenish the mileage lost from driving higher speeds far exceeds the time saved driving fast. The only time I drive fast is when I know I'm on my last leg (or have to make a long stop regardless). It's very hard for me to convince myself to do this, but it proves itself to be true every time. And obviously the situation changes depending on the trip. But, unless I had 500 or 600 miles of true range, slowing down usually gets me to my destination quicker than driving fast.

Well, of course it depends on the actual charge rate when you do stop, whether this is true or not. Since the "miles of range per hour" charge rate is often so much greater than any realistic "miles of range per driving hour", mathematically you will be wrong most of the time, assuming the same stopping places. Back when there weren't all that many superchargers, skipping them wasn't really an option, and the fastest journey was definitely to go as fast as you could to still make it to the next supercharger nearly empty, and charge just enough with a margin to get to the next one fast.

Like many things, this has been discussed to death in other parts of the forum, and has nothing to do with Tesla investment.

 

[Lessmog]

Lucid Makes Tesla Eat Dust With Air's Estimated 517-Mile EPA Range

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Amazing what can be done in Poorpoint and Phonyshop these days, innit?

 

[woodisgood]

It will be slightly annoying if the prophesized S&P inclusion boom does happen, only to bring the SP back to the 1600 range.

 

[Nocturnal]

The funny thing is, I'll sit there and try to calculate it all out in my mind. I've even rolled into the garage with 3 miles of range before to keep from stopping - probably saved 5 minutes overall.

I will say this - it's hard for me to drive less than 75, but I'll do it occasionally. Even 75 seems like you're crawling these days. But with AP, it's a ton better. At least you can just set the cruise on 75 and kind of chill out. When I have to drive long distances (which I NEVER do any more), I'm going to drive as fast as think I can get away with - can't stand to drive and want to hurry up and get it over with.

I think this is on topic as a safer charging experience might even out the Male/Female ratio in Tesla owners.

BTW - another of my concerns with stopping at SC's is the safety aspect. Man, the Macon, GA one downtown is down right SCARY!!! If you didn't have any method of defense with you there, you are nuts. I really wish Tesla had an emergency release on the charge cable. It sucks just sitting there at 2am knowing if someone were to do anything stupid, you can't move the car - and you sure aren't going to get out and try to unplug it real quickly. So, that has also motivated me to drive slower occasionally. Fortunately, Tesla put in another SC in Macon, in a much better location.

I keep harping on the fact that Telsa needs an emergency mode to use at superchargers. One button on the screen or audio command and it will disengage the lockout letting you drive away and automatically call the police and save video footage. If I'm getting car jacked (I don't carry in my car but some day maybe) I'll be happy to buy Tesla a new SC cable if that means I could drive off.

It will be slightly annoying if the prophesized S&P inclusion boom does happen, only to bring the SP back to the 1600 range.

Wouldn't feel so bad at this point.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

It will be slightly annoying if the prophesized S&P inclusion boom does happen, only to bring the SP back to the 1600 range.

You would have no complaints from me

 

[jerry33]

You might want to read this article. Car and driver tested the car right along side a Model S Long Range Plus with 402 EPA rated range. When the Model S went into limp mode at 357 miles, the Air still had 20% capacity left. No, that's not over 500, but it is in the neighborhood of 460 miles at highway speed. That is still enough for most people's drive in a single day.

Lucid Air EV Has a Projected 517 Miles of Range

Around town, certainly. On a trip 600-700 miles a day is pretty normal. Speed limits are 85 mph.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Man, you didn't read the article did you? This is NOT Lucid stating their numbers - this is Car and Driver AND an independent testing company simulating the exact EPA test.

Also, can you PLEASE post a source for these things you post? Like "The fact that it has been prove/shown that a Raven S gets over 400 miles on a highway trip from SF to LA". I just like to confirm what I read on the internet - not sure if you know this or not, but people can post anything. It's best to confirm before believing.

As others have pointed out, maybe you should read the article again. What I questioned was exactly the type of stunts that Porshe did. Even if Car and Driver was driving the car, Lucid can easily use software to fudge the range because they did not run the battery close to 0. Hmm wonder why

Also, when tesla announced the raven model s, they allowed a journalist to drive the car themselves without telsa reps on a road trip from SF to LA. The journalist documented the whole thing and showed the car would have gotten over 400 miles.

Come on man, you're a tesla investor on a tesla investor board. I shouldn't have to point that out to you

 

[ZachF]

I will say this - all things being equal (which obviously they are not at this point), Tesla will not be able to compete with Lucid if they continue to build cars in Fremont. Lucid is building their factory in Arizona I believe. As Elon stated a week ago, California workers have a sense of entitlement, and they simply don't have to work very hard (always some type of gov't safety net to catch them and they know it). Not to mention the higher labor costs. So, it's going to be hard for Tesla to compete in the long run if they continue to build cars in California.

There's no way Tesla could sell the CyberTruck at its stated prices if it were built in Fremont. I'm really anxious to see what happens to the price of the Y once it is being built in Texas. The paint quality will at least improve by a large amount.

By the time Lucid ramps up production the majority of Teslas sold in the US will probably be made in Texas.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Lucid's sudden rush to prove absolutely nothing. That is the headline. We can play the mileage game all day without pricing and unlimited battery capacity. Most could make a 1,000 mi range car... so.

Reason this is out now, well before its maturity, is the fear of range hot button to drive down the SP ahead of battery day IMO.

All hype, but excellent buying opportunity.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Lucid Makes Tesla Eat Dust With Air's Estimated 517-Mile EPA Range

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Talk about a horribly written paragraph. He states that the battery is rumored to be LESS THAN 130 kWh, then says if it is, it will be about 30% larger than Tesla's. So, 110 is less than 130. Is 110 thirty percent more than 100? NO!! I mean, who wrote this ignorant crap? Heck, is even 129 percent more than 100?

130 is 30% more than 100. ANYTHING less is NOT 30% more. So, the 2 statements are contradicting. That, or the guy simply can't do math.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Talk about a horribly written paragraph. He states that the battery is rumored to be LESS THAN 130 kWh, then says if it is, it will be about 30% larger than Tesla's. So, 110 is less than 130. Is 110 thirty percent more than 100? NO!! I mean, who wrote this ignorant crap? Heck, is even 129 percent more than 100?

130 is 30% more than 100. ANYTHING less is NOT 30% more. So, the 2 statements are contradicting. That, or the guy simply can't do math.

Didn't say he was the best author however, personally...that is not a fair comparison. Need a apples-apples comparison which manufacturers never do obviously....let's not get our panties in a bunch and wait for battery day

 

[ggr]

I will say this - all things being equal (which obviously they are not at this point), Tesla will not be able to compete with Lucid if they continue to build cars in Fremont. Lucid is building their factory in Arizona I believe. As Elon stated a week ago, California workers have a sense of entitlement, and they simply don't have to work very hard (always some type of gov't safety net to catch them and they know it). Not to mention the higher labor costs. So, it's going to be hard for Tesla to compete in the long run if they continue to build cars in California.

There's no way Tesla could sell the CyberTruck at its stated prices if it were built in Fremont. I'm really anxious to see what happens to the price of the Y once it is being built in Texas. The paint quality will at least improve by a large amount.

Casa Grande is a small city about halfway between Tucson and the southern parts of the Phoenix area, so over an hour drive from either place. Population about 60k. Sure the land is cheap. Where are the workers?

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Lucid's sudden rush to prove absolutely nothing. That is the headline. We can play the mileage game all day without pricing and unlimited battery capacity. Most could make a 1,000 mi range car... so.

Reason this is out now, well before its maturity, is the fear of range hot button to drive down the SP ahead of battery day IMO.

All hype, but excellent buying opportunity.

Lucid is on record stating the battery is much less than 130 kWh, and the range was determined by an independent testing company simulating the EPA test. Car and driver even vouched that the range is far greater than a Model S Long Range Plus (though they were not testing a production ready Lucid Air). They are revealing the car 9-9-2020 so I don't think they would be posting ridiculously high numbers at this point when the moment of truth comes in just a few short weeks.

What we really don't know yet is the real price. Lucid is saying, starts at $60k and tops out just over $100k. If so, that's inline with Tesla. Supposedly, they're $60k model will have 325 miles of range, and of course be eligible for the $7500 rebate. $52,500 will be very enticing if it truly gets an EPA rating of 325 miles. Only time will tell.