Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Captkerosene]

Why do you think Amazon, Apple, and Google are legitimate competitors to Tesla in the autonomy/robotaxi business? In my opinion it's:

1. Tesla
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2. Intel MobilEye
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3. Waymo
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4. Everybody else

(This scale is for autonomy only. In the robotaxi business, I think the lead between Tesla and #2 is probably 2-3x as large, due to synergies between Tesla's businesses.)


I'm also not sure why you say that it's an unknown what autonomy will be worth. You can definitely run the numbers on the kinds of profits a robotaxi can generate, and extrapolate from there. Especially in the case of Tesla, because the business model they will use is known. In the case of competitors there's a little bit more uncertainty as to what the deals they'll have to make with partners will look like.

And yeah, I'm not saying you shouldn't have sold 3/4 of your TSLA holdings, even if there is no better risk/reward investment. I don't know your situation, and can't claim to know what financial decisions are best for you.

All of the models assume that Tesla solves robotaxi first and that we don't have any competition. What if 1) we aren't first 2) we aren't best 3) we have multiple deep pocket competitors. Too soon to crown a winner when the race has just started. Also, the models put big multiples on profits. Elon has stated that the RT software will be a commodity in ten years. If it was patentable, I'd feel better about paying $150B for it. I don't think it is.

 

[Drumheller]

All of the models assume that Tesla solves robotaxi first and that we don't have any competition. What if 1) we aren't first 2) we aren't best 3) we have multiple deep pocket competitors. Too soon to crown a winner when the race has just started. Also, the models put big multiples on profits. Elon has stated that the RT software will be a commodity in ten years. If it was patentable, I'd feel better about paying $150B for it. I don't think it is.

It is not about money. I've worked in software development for 23 years. It is very obvious to me that Tesla is taking the best approach to solving this problem. I dont know how to convey that point of view to non software people.

 

[heltok]

 

[smorgasbord]

weekend videos, the Dave Ramsey one is hilarious :

What's even more hilarious is that 3 years ago a caller making about half of what that future Tesla owner makes called him asking if he could buy a Porsche - and Dave said YES.

 

[Krugerrand]

All of the models assume that Tesla solves robotaxi first and that we don't have any competition. What if 1) we aren't first 2) we aren't best 3) we have multiple deep pocket competitors. Too soon to crown a winner when the race has just started. Also, the models put big multiples on profits. Elon has stated that the RT software will be a commodity in ten years. If it was patentable, I'd feel better about paying $150B for it. I don't think it is.

What if you were the only one here not of a royal bloodline?

 

[LTC_RRR]

weekend videos, the Dave Ramsey one is hilarious :

That D. Ramsey excerpt was one huge commercial - love it!

 

[Words of HABIT]

Cadillac Lyriq, $75k* USD est. available late 2022* est. (in volume by 2023?), 300* mi. range est. with 100kWh battery.

NIO ES6, available now in China, starting $51k USD with 317mi. 75kW battery, up to 380mi. NEDC with 100kWh battery.

From the exterior they appear very similar, with the NIO having noticably longer range and more efficient battery than the prototype Lyriq with its 47% cost premium over the ES6.

Wishing Cadillac and GM all the best and hoping they will sell as many EVs to offset their ICE models, one EV at a time.

 

[Fred42]

Cadillac Lyriq, $75k* USD est. available late 2022* est. (in volume by 2023?), 300* mi. range est. with 100kWh battery.
View attachment 573998

NIO ES6, available now in China, starting $51k USD with 317mi. 75kW battery, up to 380mi. NEDC with 100kWh battery.
View attachment 573999

From the exterior they appear very similar, with the NIO having noticably longer range and more efficient battery than the prototype Lyriq with its 47% cost premium over the ES6.

Wishing Cadillac and GM all the best and hoping they will sell as many EVs to offset their ICE models, one EV at a time.

The 100kWh with 380 miles range NEDC is the one with range comparable to the Cadillac and you didn't mention the price. Not 47% more. Plus we don't know what price GM plans to charge in China.

 

[ZachF]

Open Letter To Bernie Sanders: Elon Musk Isn’t The Enemy.

Someone wrote a letter to sanders about attacking Elon. Actually made some great and valid points in his letter.

TBH, it probably isn't even Bernie that's writing those things... Bernie might not even know what Twitter is...

 

[ggr]

Ex-Mod: Look, guys, political discussion is not allowed in this thread. Period. I just moved posts to the politics thread. But that's more work than just deleting them. Take it over there. --ggr

 

[Words of HABIT]

The 100kWh with 380 miles range NEDC is the one with range comparable to the Cadillac and you didn't mention the price. Not 47% more. Plus we don't know what price GM plans to charge in China.

how much does Cadillac CT6 cost in US? $58,995 USD base model
how much does Cadillac CT6 cost in China? $80,408 USD base model
Additional costs would be expected due to import taxes and shipping and additional markup.
Using the above example, unless Cadillac plans on manufacturing the Lyriq in China, their $75,000 USD base price will become $102,222 USD base price in China.

Compare to 84 kWh fully optioned NIO ES6 at 548000 yuan or 78,647 USD
how much does nio ES6 cost?

Cadillac is a very popular brand in China with double digit growth in the last three years.

O'k, back to Tesla.

 

[Beltsbear]

The fundamental issue with Bernie here is that

1) He apparently does not understand the difference between wealth and money. What he's proposing is completely illogical and unlawful. You can't force someone to pay taxes on something that is unearned. What if Elon is forced to pay that tax on a market value of Tesla at 300 billion and then a year later Tesla is only 150 billion? Is the government going to pay him back for the excess taxes he paid? Come on Bernie, think through your sh*t

2) Tesla over it's lifetime will make direct contributions to well being of the average American(and worldwide citizen) through reduced expenses. EV's will be significantly cheaper than gas vehicles in 10 years. The fuel for their cars will be significantly cheaper than gas and in most cases, free. Consumers, businesses, and the governments themselves will pay cheaper utility rates thanks to Tesla's solar, battery storage, and grid network. The average cost for ride hailing will be a fraction of what Uber/Lyft costs today. I'm not even taking into account the savings people will realize if Tesla get's into airplanes, boats, etc....Over the next 10 years, Tesla and Elon ALONE will be responsible for saving US citizens and people across the world hundreds of billions of dollars in expenses........Gee I'm sure Bernie hasn't thought about that

All of that plus Elon has put more pressure on the Russians then the president has. He has robbed them of oil money, rocket engine money, space transportation money and more.

While Elon has not received a lot of unusual government help. But he is Worth every penny. If space becomes military, Elon’s value to the government will not be measurable. Just like if he developes L5 FSD.

 

[RobStark]

how much does Cadillac CT6 cost in US? $58,995 USD base model
how much does Cadillac CT6 cost in China? $80,408 USD base model
Additional costs would be expected due to import taxes and shipping and additional markup.
Using the above example, unless Cadillac plans on manufacturing the Lyriq in China, their $75,000 USD base price will become $102,222 USD base price in China.

Compare to 84 kWh fully optioned NIO ES6 at 548000 yuan or 78,647 USD
how much does nio ES6 cost?

Cadillac is a very popular brand in China with double digit growth in the last three years.

O'k, back to Tesla.

Cadillac reveals Lyriq, its all-electric SUV flagship loaded with luxury and tech – TechCrunch.

Production of Lyriq will start in China before US.

How does ES6 compare to Model X?

Is NIO profitable or does it still suffer -34% margins?

 

[elasalle]

View attachment 574018
Cadillac reveals Lyriq, its all-electric SUV flagship loaded with luxury and tech – TechCrunch.

Production of Lyriq will start in China before US.

How does ES6 compare to Model X?

Is NIO profitable or does it still suffer -34% margins?

How many times is GM gonna pull this *sugar*. Didn't we have a similar reveal a few mths back with Mary Barra a few mths back.

 

[engle]

Also, it's not like loyal Caddie owners can cash in some of their massive GM stock gains to buy a Lyriq! I wonder how many Tesla sales were generated by stockholders so far? From reading TMC, it seems like a lot. I know I wouldn't be considering a Roadster II if I wasn't a long term TSLA HOLDR. YOLO!

Interesting that TSLA market cap per employee is $5.64M right now while GM's is only 233,000.

Every time another "iPhone Killer" was released, it was already years behind where Apple was at the time. The only one that ever survived was Android, and that was for two reasons as it turns out.

(1) Google was literally giving Android away, it was an open-source project anyone could use freely.

This ended up not being the actual important reason. No, the important reason was:

(2) iPhone was at the time exclusive to AT&T and their principal competitor Verizon wanted something of their own and that something ended up being the original Motorola Droid. Android ended up taking over and leaving behind other prospective "iPhone Killers" like Palm's WebOS, Microsoft's Windows Phone, Nokia's half-baked messes, and Blackberry's floundering operations simply because Verizon backed the flagship Android product of that time. Had iPhone been available on both major American carriers from day one, the world might well have turned out very differently.

So, let's just say the "Tesla Killers" have their work cut out for them and they have already given Elon a 10 year head start. They can't afford to give their cars away, and it's unlikely a powerful company which controls something critical like a national charging network is going to back one of the various upcoming "Tesla Killers" above all the others. So...there will be no Androids this time to take on Apple. Good luck, ICE makers!

MKBHD remembers the Motorola Droid's launch:

 

[Jack6591]

Ex-Mod: Look, guys, political discussion is not allowed in this thread. Period. I just moved posts to the politics thread. But that's more work than just deleting them. Take it over there. --ggr

@ggr I appreciate your forbearance, especially considering the liberties that I have taken on this thread. Regarding the question of my pleading; I am guilty.

On the other hand, investing in Tesla is a particularly political subject — it is often difficult to distinguish between strictly investment related information and the political partisanship that can directly affect TSLA’s market value.

I greatly appreciate the work that you put into a job that can only be described as daunting. Thank you.

I know that the site rules and policies cover many of these matters, and I feel the scoundrel for even considering adding to your work. That said, any color that you could add to a very thorny question would be amazing.

Cheers,
A grateful cad

 

[MC3OZ]

All of the models assume that Tesla solves robotaxi first and that we don't have any competition. What if 1) we aren't first 2) we aren't best 3) we have multiple deep pocket competitors. Too soon to crown a winner when the race has just started. Also, the models put big multiples on profits. Elon has stated that the RT software will be a commodity in ten years. If it was patentable, I'd feel better about paying $150B for it. I don't think it is.

IMO Tesla will be first or 2nd.

But more importantly they will probably have the cheapest fleet cost, the largest fleet, and the most rapid ramp up.

Add they will be able to add 1M Robo-taxi capable cars to the fleet each year.

For competitor the following questions are relevant:-
1) Where are they getting the fleet?
2) How quickly can they scale?
3) How will the fleet be financed?
4) What are they doing about charging, insurance and cleaning.

For Tesla there is one simple question:-
1) What are you doing about cleaning?

 

[AlMc]

The discussion wasn’t about ‘choice.’

The OP 'chose' to sell some of his TSLA and gave his reasons why. I may have missed it where he was trying to scare people (FUD) into selling theirs or indicating that others should simply follow his lead.

Enlighten me if I missed the part where he was encouraging others to sell. He was just giving his reasoning. I am not going to sell TSLA based on his reasoning but he makes a solid case for diversification.

Mark Cuban may advocate concentrated/one stock investing but most people I know/listen to like some diversification.

I will respect your final word on this discussion but for my part this is my last one on the subject.

 

[H Mak]

My wife and I ventured out today for the first time since lockdown for a bit of a session. We visited a few bars in and around the Liverpool dockside. I was amazed when we happened to walk past a bloke with a "Colonize Mars" t-shirt, and on the back it read Space X. It's happening. Word is spreading. Even here in Liverpool.

 

[Curt Renz]

How many times is GM gonna pull this *sugar*. Didn't we have a similar reveal a few mths back with Mary Barra a few mths back.

How about over 280 months ago?