Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Do you guys only read the investor thread?

Is that a trick question?

*surveys the landscape*

I feel that’s a trick question.

 

[Paracelsus]

I tended to agree with @Lycanthrope that we could close the week around 1,400 - with 1,450 in the realm of possibilities. So no real surprises today given the lower 5-day trendline of support that was traded on.............however the Shorts that grew impatient and piled on with more shorting around 1,350 got their a$$ handed to them when the share price snapped back up to the 5-day support. There are probably a few still stinging from that effort that took short-positions all the way down to 1,315 and are looking at a closing price $50 higher and up further after hours. Having fallen victim to those quick 'head fakes' by the MM's in the other direction while acquiring shares over the years on the dips I have found it well worth my time to pay a few bucks more per share following some proof in direction. (Not an advice to Shorts - please keep the squeeze 'squeezy' like you did this afternoon, just an advice to Longs!)

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Because that's not what happened.

I'm not talking about a decision they announced, then reconsidered a few days, or weeks, or even months, later.

I'm talking about 3 solid years of missing their own publicly stated targets... by very wide margins.

That's either incompetence, over years.

Or they never were really aiming for those targets and only ever threw them out there to assuage range anxiety concerns, but weren't ever seriously planning to spend the money to reach those targets in those timelines.


They didn't change their mind halfway through 3 years of execution- they simply didn't do anything to execute to that schedule. Not half of the way, not any fraction of the way.

They just kept building at the same, slower-than-advertised, rate- without changing their ACTUAL execution schedule to match the one they kept announcing to the public.


Again- financially that's probably the right move for them to have made.... and would've addressed fear in potential customers that's largely grounded in anxiety and not reality as a bonus.

But it's not some kinda OMG INNOVATIVE MOVE FAST COMPANY CHANGED ITS MIND thing. It's a much simpler strategy than that- and it seems to have worked just fine.


Not EVERY move the company makes is 9th dimensional chess. Sometimes regular 4D works fine.




Yeah- but that was reversed days later.

Not 3+ years later, during which they didn't legit work toward stated goals at all.





But they also missed the 2016 targets. And the 2017 ones. By a lot.

After they missed 2018 by a mile too, they didn't even bother announcing targets for 2019 or 2020.

Presumably because they were past the hump and no longer needed to give lip service to the range anxiety crowd since coverage was real-world "good enough" to not have to make it sound like expansion was gonna be WAY faster than it really would be like they'd been doing the previous 3 years.

You're starting to get super repetitive and irritating. We get your point. We got it 20 posts ago. Can you please either move on to another negative topic (and try not to beat it in the ground this time), or just sell your Tesla shares and buy Ford or GM, or any of the truthful car companies? Obviously, you don't like Tesla. We get it.

 

[Fred42]

Right?! Because only Tesla should be held to the standard of their vehicles never, ever, ever needing to go to service for like anything. Ever.

The point of a good customer is not to be pedantic prima donna and expect something to materialize simply because, ‘Hey, I bought a car and live in the middle of nowhere/low population density area, so you need to build me a service center down the street!’

By that logic, I’ll be expecting Tesla to service my Tesla’s on my island via mobility service and if they can’t do everything I might need that way, they better build a SC on my island for me.

And while we’re at it, why doesn’t my cellphone have Internet when I’m out camping in the wilderness? I pay good money to my service providers. I should have coverage everywhere, all the time, no exceptions.

I live in the relatively affluent capital area of PA (relatively affluent compared to much of the state) and the nearest store in PA is 100 miles away. Tesla will not have substantial sales here until they change that.
Erie, PA's third largest city and (300 miles from here), has no store or service center.
Tesla needs to keep building.

 

[Knightshade]

You're starting to get super repetitive and irritating. We get your point. We got it 20 posts ago. Can you please either move on to another negative topic (and try not to beat it in the ground this time), or just sell your Tesla shares and buy Ford or GM, or any of the truthful car companies? Obviously, you don't like Tesla. We get it.

It's remarkable how little reading comprehension goes into some of these replies, given they claim things I never said and reach conclusions 100% opposite of the ones in my actual posts

I live in the relatively affluent capital area of PA (relatively affluent compared to much of the state) and the nearest store in PA is 100 miles away. Tesla will not have substantial sales here until they change that.
Erie, PA's third largest city and (300 miles from here), has no store or service center.
Tesla needs to keep building.

The point others have raised is that since Tesla continues to sell cars faster than they can build them, they not only don't need to have substantial sales there, they literally can't because they can't build cars fast enough to do so.


And thus is makes little sense to spend money building facilities to encourage sales they can't supply the cars to actually make.

And they're not wrong- though obviously once a second US factory comes online and with increased battery production those limits will be fading, and thus they will have to start making those investments to support "new" areas.... especially true for Cybertruck sales

—

Mod: and that concludes this discussion. Everyone had their say. Multiple times.

 

[ZeApelido]

Sensing you think the FSD computer still needs more power. I think it will be fine for the goal of 10x safety, and the errors will be pretty unique and seemingly stupid, but safer overall. Want even more safety or some race driving skills? Ya bigger computers, and will likely follow Moore's Law. Personally, I don't think 10x is enough for me and will want the upgrade next year to 25x safer... Yes, I would pay for this, again and again, just like I upgrade my computers. Their computer swap out design was no accident.

Full disclaimer, I also asked Craig Barrett (before CEO of Intel), in person, in front of about 50 coworkers, why anyone would need faster than 20 MHz computers. (It was the very beginning of Intel's Better, Faster, Cheaper push.) At the time, it wasn't a stupid question, excel was fast enough, no?

Not an Expert or Advise

I'm saying based on the current evidence, I don't know if it is sufficient, nor should any of us

Take the case of FSD detecting a huge restaurant sign (red octogon shape) and stopping for it [this happened like 2 months ago, haven't found the link to it]. If Tesla was already doing what I am talking about, it wouldn't be difficult to ignore the restaurant sign. While it's hard to guess the distance / size of an object in a static image, the problem becomes much easier when moving and you are looking at a few different image time points.

Maybe the rewrite will account for this. I guess we'll see in a few months looking at new edge failure cases.

 

[kanweg]

He also claimed only they have four drive motors...

very interesting post!

As to the four motors, he said they were the only one having independently driven motors that could steer and turn in different directions and could get itself out of a jackknife.

Perhaps Tesla can make FSD such that you don’t get into that situation in the first place.

 

[ninpb]

On the subject of Nikola...

I’m a 64 year old electrician, and I have lost a step or two. I do not possess the speed and agility of my youth. That said, I can install a 240 volt outlet in your garage, in an hour or so. I can have you charging that new Tesla pretty darn quick; and reasonably inexpensive.

Just a little blue-collar horse sense.

That's a good reminder. Infrastructure for EVs are already in homes, apartments and businesses.

It's so unfair though. I guarantee if Tesla were using fuel cells, analysts would be referencing the Hindenburg twice a week.

 

[Quesder]

NIO share price has been performing better than TSLA recently, although TSLA is already performing excellently.
Some of you may remember that I was seduced by my colleague to buy it at $5 in Jan. It went down to $2.2 bottom. That was a painful process but now I only regret that didn’t buy more with my spare life saving money.
Anyway, do you think the market is big enough for both Tesla and NIO (maybe many others), or at the end only one of them will survive?

 

[Singuy]

People feel like they missed the boat on Tesla and want to get in on the ground floor. It's a fool's errand, imho.

Yes I understand that but just because I missed out amazon.com doesn't mean I should jump on buythingsonline.com. They have gone full retard, they should never go full retard.

 

[vikings123]

Isn’t there some kind of brother/sister family clause whereby they have to do what you say? Like, doesn’t that special sibling bond stand for anything anymore? Can’t you just punch him in the stomach and tell him buy TSLA or next time it’s your face?

lol I almost spilled my coffee. He is the elder one so there is obviously the "big brother knows better" sort of mentality. I feel like I wasted my time trying to make him see the light.

Like someone suggested previously I might just allot 5 shares(as a secret gift) for each of my nephews in a separate trading account. At the end of 10 years I want to gift the secret shares to them in my brother's presence. Win Win and I don't have to worry about punches

 

[tinm]

Right?! Because only Tesla should be held to the standard of their vehicles never, ever, ever needing to go to service for like anything. Ever.

The point of a good customer is not to be pedantic prima donna and expect something to materialize simply because, ‘Hey, I bought a car and live in the middle of nowhere/low population density area, so you need to build me a service center down the street!’

By that logic, I’ll be expecting Tesla to service my Tesla’s on my island via mobility service and if they can’t do everything I might need that way, they better build a SC on my island for me.

And while we’re at it, why doesn’t my cellphone have Internet when I’m out camping in the wilderness? I pay good money to my service providers. I should have coverage everywhere, all the time, no exceptions.

God this smug condescending attitude cannot go without one last set of facts:

• I live in New Mexico.
• I’m 400 miles from a service center.
• There are about 1100 Teslas in this state. There would be thousands more if the state government wasn’t so utterly captured by the dealer and oil/gas lobbies.
• We have fought to change the laws for five years.
• Owners in NM pay about $1100 to get their cars towed to a service center for serious problems. This sucks.
• There is one (1) mobile tech serving 1100 cars in a 121,000 sq mi state.
• It can take 4+ weeks to get an appointment using the app.
• It’s almost impossible to get someone on the phone for unusual service issues.
• We are not pedantic prima donnas. We are customers and shareholders in a $250+ billion company. It can afford to address these deficiencies. It refuses to.

And with that, goodbye Krugerrand, you’re on Ignore.

 

[jerry33]

NIO share price has been performing better than TSLA recently, although TSLA is already performing excellently.
Some of you may remember that I was seduced by my colleague to buy it at $5 in Jan. It went down to $2.2 bottom. That was a painful process but now I only regret that didn’t buy more with my spare life saving money.
Anyway, do you think the market is big enough for both Tesla and NIO (maybe many others), or at the end only one of them will survive?

Given that ICE is on the way out, and there are quite a few legacy car manufacturers, there is plenty of room for several BEV manufacturers. Of course, how each BEV manufacturer will perform is another story.

 

[SOULPEDL]

On the subject of Nikola...

I’m a 64 year old electrician, and I have lost a step or two. I do not possess the speed and agility of my youth. That said, I can install a 240 volt outlet in your garage, in an hour or so. I can have you charging that new Tesla pretty darn quick; and reasonably inexpensive.

Just a little blue-collar horse sense.

Not me. My NEMA plug took me like 3 days including the dig under my front walkway to the garage. Speed is not my forte, remember? I have to analyse it all first, then calculate it, then consider costs of different conduit, then call the city to know for sure if gooseneck is OK or if 18" hole is good enough etc... Pool took 2 yrs, but has 3" flagstone coping personally hand chiselled.

 

[Mo City]

Everyone here knows who this is. Awesome! LOL hilarious. https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1280963168827846659

When the link opens, click Show this thread.

 

[dhrivnak]

I live in the relatively affluent capital area of PA (relatively affluent compared to much of the state) and the nearest store in PA is 100 miles away. Tesla will not have substantial sales here until they change that.
Erie, PA's third largest city and (300 miles from here), has no store or service center.
Tesla needs to keep building.

Wow I live in a little corner of NE TN a good 200 miles from the nearest service center. Model 3s are popping up like crabgrass here and the mobile tech keeps us quite happy

 

[ThisStockGood]

NIO share price has been performing better than TSLA recently, although TSLA is already performing excellently.
Some of you may remember that I was seduced by my colleague to buy it at $5 in Jan. It went down to $2.2 bottom. That was a painful process but now I only regret that didn’t buy more with my spare life saving money.
Anyway, do you think the market is big enough for both Tesla and NIO (maybe many others), or at the end only one of them will survive?

I dont find Tesla and NIO comparable at all. NIO is more like a concept - not an actual car producing company. They lack the vertical integration, outsource almost all production to suppliers and so on.

That said, I still believe in NIO, but I don’t think they will be Tesla big...

Full disclosure: I own a small portion of NIO (Uhh, he said that in a Tesla community... I feel dirty and I like it)

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm saying based on the current evidence, I don't know if it is sufficient, nor should any of us

Take the case of FSD detecting a huge restaurant sign (red octogon shape) and stopping for it [this happened like 2 months ago, haven't found the link to it]. If Tesla was already doing what I am talking about, it wouldn't be difficult to ignore the restaurant sign. While it's hard to guess the distance / size of an object in a static image, the problem becomes much easier when moving and you are looking at a few different image time points.

Maybe the rewrite will account for this. I guess we'll see in a few months looking at new edge failure cases.

But it did look like a stop sign. That impressed me as human-like intelligence. What, you never mistook someone for someone else?
Nothing is for sure, but my glass is 7/8 full on this one; I even bet my life on it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

NIO share price has been performing better than TSLA recently, although TSLA is already performing excellently.
Some of you may remember that I was seduced by my colleague to buy it at $5 in Jan. It went down to $2.2 bottom. That was a painful process but now I only regret that didn’t buy more with my spare life saving money.
Anyway, do you think the market is big enough for both Tesla and NIO (maybe many others), or at the end only one of them will survive?

Both live just fine, the market is HUGE! Need more NIOs actually. Faster, faster!!!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Barclays to Tesla bears: 'Stay in your caves'

Barclays to Tesla bears: ‘Stay in your caves’