Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

I have been tracking Tesla inventory for NA and I think it's consistently been in the 4500-5500 range for the past week(see below for current snapshot). I have no idea how this compares to previous quarter inventory but it's not bad all.

Model Used New
S 509 631
3 38 2662
X 383 1079
Total 930 4372

The current inventory levels plus the model Y deliveries should give us a fairly good idea of deliveries for this quarter. Even with some buyers postponing deliveries I just don't see how we can go any lower than 85-90K deliveries. Europe deliveries seem be going fine based on the activity in this forum.

Key would be good guidance for Q2 and Q3 with a short term recession pretty much guaranteed. Maybe they are seeing a lot of demand for Model 3 and Y in China which explains the increased expansion activity. Based on what we know so far I think the guidance would be in the range of 425-450K deliveries.

My thoughts on SP in the near future:

If the SP stays in this range my guess is the P&D report will not move the stock much(up or down). Selfishly I'm hoping we drop down to the mid 450 range so I can load more with my new buying power lol. We will likely trade in the 450-550 range until Q2 earnings call. Thoughts?

 

[Ameliorate]

I have been tracking Tesla inventory for NA and I think it's consistently been in the 4500-5500 range for the past week(see below for current snapshot). I have no idea how this compares to previous quarter inventory but it's not bad all.

Model Used New
S 509 631
3 38 2662
X 383 1079
Total 930 4372

The current inventory levels plus the model Y deliveries should give us a fairly good idea of deliveries for this quarter. Even with some buyers postponing deliveries I just don't see how we can go any lower than 85-90K deliveries. Europe deliveries seem be going fine based on the activity in this forum.

Key would be good guidance for Q2 and Q3 with a short term recession pretty much guaranteed. Maybe they are seeing a lot of demand for Model 3 and Y in China which explains the increased expansion activity. Based on what we know so far I think the guidance would be in the range of 425-450K deliveries.

My thoughts on SP in the near future:

If the SP stays in this range my guess is the P&D report will not move the stock much(up or down). Selfishly I'm hoping we drop down to the mid 450 range so I can load more with my new buying power lol. We will likely trade in the 450-550 range until Q2 earnings call. Thoughts?

So 70,085 - 70,100? Great. (Saw some analyst predictions of 70k, going to encourage that for now as my expectations are more in line with yours) if 70k is expected Apr 3 could see a nice gap up.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Maybe. Terrible unemployment report coming out tomorrow. US Deaths going to skyrocket. We should be red the rest of the week....

Once all the shorts and put holders give up I'm it will likely continue the down trend. I did sell some more TSLA today so you can thank me when it goes up again tomorrow

Good luck to all that are trying to trade this volatility

 

[kyzhk]

Wash sale only applies when you sell a stock at a loss. Therefore I never had to worry about wash sale - why would you be selling TSLA at a loss? Have unrealized loss? Just hold.

Well, it would also be really hard to have unrealized loss in TSLA for long term investor here. We are well above where the stock was in all previous years.

 

[vikings123]

So 70,085 - 70,100? Great. (Saw some analyst predictions of 70k, going to encourage that for now as my expectations are more in line with yours) if 70k is expected Apr 3 could see a nice gap up.

good point. I still think the market will look for Q2 guidance.

I don’t know what the latest factset estimates are for Q1 P&D. Does anybody know?

 

[Todd Burch]

I can’t imagine Elon would mark up ventilators. He might even be losing money on them. If he tried to make a profit that Lora Kolodny would be all over it

Yeah I'm not talking about marking up or price gouging of course, or even making any sort of profit. I was thinking more along the lines of getting fair payment for them and being able to give employees a paycheck vs furloughing them (I just found out I'll need to go through a month-long unpaid furlough).

 

[Causalien]

Estimate of inflation caused by 6 trillion dollars is 40%. (based on M2)
As a reference TARP 1 for 2008 represent only 7.5% of M2. Which is why we didn't see much inflation reflected in data.

The more worrying aspect of this is the 0% reserve requirement. Most banks will try to be responsible, but you bet that there will be banks that will be going 100x leverage and 1 of them will be super irresponsible and goes for 1000x leverage because the consequence of failure is not their problem.

Unfortunately, this is just a setup for the next, much bigger bubble as we are currently experiencing the consequence of what we did for 2008. The next one will be 10x bigger, but will also take much longer to appear.

IF, TSLA is fairly valued at $420. Then the fair valuation of the stock immediately after passage of the relief package should be $588.

 

[LJS22]

I have been tracking Tesla inventory for NA and I think it's consistently been in the 4500-5500 range for the past week(see below for current snapshot). I have no idea how this compares to previous quarter inventory but it's not bad all.

Model Used New
S 509 631
3 38 2662
X 383 1079
Total 930 4372

The current inventory levels plus the model Y deliveries should give us a fairly good idea of deliveries for this quarter. Even with some buyers postponing deliveries I just don't see how we can go any lower than 85-90K deliveries. Europe deliveries seem be going fine based on the activity in this forum.

Key would be good guidance for Q2 and Q3 with a short term recession pretty much guaranteed. Maybe they are seeing a lot of demand for Model 3 and Y in China which explains the increased expansion activity. Based on what we know so far I think the guidance would be in the range of 425-450K deliveries.

My thoughts on SP in the near future:

If the SP stays in this range my guess is the P&D report will not move the stock much(up or down). Selfishly I'm hoping we drop down to the mid 450 range so I can load more with my new buying power lol. We will likely trade in the 450-550 range until Q2 earnings call. Thoughts?

Not that used inventory has anything to do with new inventory but I noticed Tesla had a fire sale on performance models yesterday. Cheapest S was $26k then they had a bunch of P90dl going for $45-54k. Model X performance models were in the $50k range. It seems today most of those vehicles are gone and a p100d that was $57k is now back to $63k. So it seems they were clearing used inventory but sold too many or made a mistake.

 

[copyhacker]

disagree. what's artificial about $2 trillion dollars?

Some might say the 2 trillion dollars are.

 

[Ameliorate]

Estimate of inflation caused by 6 trillion dollars is 40%. (based on M2)
As a reference TARP 1 for 2008 represent only 7.5% of M2. Which is why we didn't see much inflation reflected in data.

The more worrying aspect of this is the 0% reserve requirement. Most banks will try to be responsible, but you bet that there will be banks that will be going 100x leverage and 1 of them will be super irresponsible and goes for 1000x leverage because the consequence of failure is not their problem.

Unfortunately, this is just a setup for the next, much bigger bubble as we are currently experiencing the consequence of what we did for 2008. The next one will be 10x bigger, but will also take much longer to appear.

IF, TSLA is fairly valued at $420. Then the fair valuation of the stock immediately after passage of the relief package should be $588.

Thanks for this, was thinking if the reason stocks did get so high was because of levered funds, it might be much harder to return to previous numbers if they imposed restrictions on leverage. If not and as you say it just gets abused more, should see huge new highs until it breaks the system again, hopefully many years later.

I'm not saying this is a good thing by any means, but at least if we have an idea of what we're up against we can play the game and have enough to take care of ourselves/families during the next downturn event.

 

[StealthP3D]

Some might say the 2 trillion dollars are.

The most recently minted $2 trillion are no more artificial than the $90 trillion that's already out there.

 

[ruralectric]

Senate aid package quietly carves out billions intended for Boeing, officials say

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/25/boeing-bailout-coronavirus/

"The Senate package includes a $17 billion federal loan program for businesses deemed “critical to maintaining national security.” The provision does not mention Boeing by name but was crafted largely for the company’s benefit, two of the people said. Other firms could also receive a share of the money, one of the people said."
​

I don't know the precise details of the provision but I would not be surprised if Elon and Tesla lawyers assert eligibility for a piece.

 

[abasile]

I'm thinking of the "I want to be self sufficient and feel secure" thing. People thinking being off grid and prepping was popular before, but we haven't seen anything yet. Solar + battery + EV + a big freezer and pantry is the ultimate in security for these types of situations (barring a full on bunker).

Yes, as people come to feel more confident about spending money, they will most likely prioritize things that offer security. I live up in the mountains, so I've long considered it important to have a good stockpile of food and other essential items, and it was easy to sell me on the benefits of solar + battery + EV. This kind of thinking will become increasingly mainstream. Tesla will obviously benefit, and moving into home HVAC will add to this.

My thesis for this event was it would be nasty, but a relatively short recession due to those reasons and massive stimulus. People are going to go nuts with spending once the quarantines are over. Trips, dining out, buying massive quantities of supplies for the next event (and hopefully solar).

You may be right about spending, but I'm not convinced that people will be quick to take plane trips or cruises, or dine out in crowded places, until a vaccine is widely in use. Road trips might be more attractive. I'm a little bummed about the risks that'll be associated with public campgrounds, particularly their shared restrooms, but hotel/motel lodging should be okay. How does this relate to Tesla? Instead of flying to Europe on vacation or cruising to Alaska or Mexico, I think we may see a number of North American families spending the savings on Tesla vehicles and doing road trips. Also, it's too bad it's premature for Tesla to produce Semi-based RVs, because I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase in interest in RVs.

 

[Nocturnal]

You may be right about spending, but I'm not convinced that people will be quick to take plane trips or cruises, or dine out in crowded places, until a vaccine is widely in use. Road trips might be more attractive. I'm a little bummed about the risks that'll be associated with public campgrounds, particularly their shared restrooms, but hotel/motel lodging should be okay. How does this relate to Tesla? Instead of flying to Europe on vacation or cruising to Alaska or Mexico, I think we may see a number of North American families spending the savings on Tesla vehicles and doing road trips. Also, it's too bad it's premature for Tesla to produce Semi-based RVs, because I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase in interest in RVs.

Yeah, I'm assuming that happens when the virus isn't a major risk, which really does require a vaccine.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Estimate of inflation caused by 6 trillion dollars is 40%. (based on M2)
As a reference TARP 1 for 2008 represent only 7.5% of M2. Which is why we didn't see much inflation reflected in data.

The more worrying aspect of this is the 0% reserve requirement. Most banks will try to be responsible, but you bet that there will be banks that will be going 100x leverage and 1 of them will be super irresponsible and goes for 1000x leverage because the consequence of failure is not their problem.

Unfortunately, this is just a setup for the next, much bigger bubble as we are currently experiencing the consequence of what we did for 2008. The next one will be 10x bigger, but will also take much longer to appear.

IF, TSLA is fairly valued at $420. Then the fair valuation of the stock immediately after passage of the relief package should be $588.

So......roaring 20s?

 

[JRP3]

Pierre Ferragu Pierre Ferragu on Twitter

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Elon confirms Giga Buffalo reopening ASAP.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[wipster]

Well, that worked out well! Thanks market!

 

[LJS22]

Elon confirms Giga Buffalo reopening ASAP.

Elon Musk on Twitter

View attachment 525615

Elon gets a thrill out of saving humanity haha

Bernie’s comments tanked market at end. Tesla held strong!

 

[NicoV]

Estimate of inflation caused by 6 trillion dollars is 40%. (based on M2)
As a reference TARP 1 for 2008 represent only 7.5% of M2. Which is why we didn't see much inflation reflected in data.

The more worrying aspect of this is the 0% reserve requirement. Most banks will try to be responsible, but you bet that there will be banks that will be going 100x leverage and 1 of them will be super irresponsible and goes for 1000x leverage because the consequence of failure is not their problem.

Unfortunately, this is just a setup for the next, much bigger bubble as we are currently experiencing the consequence of what we did for 2008. The next one will be 10x bigger, but will also take much longer to appear.

IF, TSLA is fairly valued at $420. Then the fair valuation of the stock immediately after passage of the relief package should be $588.

Why 6 trillion, not 2 trillion?

Any idea how this money printing may affect EUR/USD exchange rate?