Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Christine69420]

Diesel-Razzia bei Volkswagen

Source in German: Razzia bei VW: Ermittlungen wegen mutmasslicher Abschalteinrichtungen

Excerpts:

The allegations were based on technical facts that the carmaker had disclosed to the competent investigative and licensing authority itself at an early stage.

The VW engine series EA 288 has been in the focus of media interest in recent months. According to a SWR report, there was a suspicion that banned defeat devices had been installed. The predecessor model "EA 189" was at the center of the diesel scandal.

The so-called "cycle detection" is a software that detects whether an exhaust gas test is currently being carried out. This is how the true exhaust emissions can be manipulated during tests.

Since 2012, the type "EA 288" has been installed in hundreds of thousands of diesel vehicles of the group. Affected: including Golf, Tiguan and Passat. Also with different models of Audi, Skoda and Seat this engine is used.

VW and also the Kraftfahrtbundesamt (KBA) denied the reports but immediately.

 

[KarenRei]

I was expecting a big collapse in EU deliveries outside the Netherlands this quarter, given 1) how Tesla has been prioritizing the Netherlands, due to the tax change; and 2) how new custom SR+ orders have been unavailable almost all quarter / new LR AWD in some markets for half the quarter (and now, none). But that doesn't seem to have happened; the results are actually quite mixed. Here's the countries reporting so far, QoQ:

NL: 1247 -> 4116 (but we already knew this, and it's for obvious reasons)
NO: 830 -> 546
FR: 293 -> 271
SE: 324 -> 230
CH: 192 -> 301
BE: 208 -> 187
AT: 127 -> 120
IT: 113 -> 136
ES: 99 -> 87

Most countries hovered around the same. Norway and Sweden had significant declines and Switzerland big growth, but most are holding their own - despite the supply constraints and order restrictions.

A big question in the upcoming data (again, with caveats #1 and #2) is what will happen to UK numbers. The UK was in an initial delivery surge last quarter, and reportedly still had more backlog to fill at the end of the quarter. It'll be interesting to see how supply constraints affect its (previously very large) numbers (2227). Germany is also an interesting outstanding case to watch; last quarter it was likely demand constrained, but this quarter, supply (they're one of the countries that hasn't even been able to order LR AWD for a good chunk of the quarter).

It's a shame that we can't really distinguish supply and demand limits in this data. But I have to say, it's looking better so far than I expected.

 

[CalX]

Rating by Citigroup, maintained Sell by this guy Itai Michaeli.

 

[Christine69420]

Look at the rightmost column from the EuroNCAP tests - displaying driver assistance results. Quite the lead!

https://www.euroncap.com/en/ratings-rewards/driver-assistance-systems/



This video shows the Model X beeing tested:

 

[elasalle]

Jay in Shanghai on Twitter
Tesla Gigafactory 3 Exclusive Video: With all of the drone videos from
@JasonYangSHA
and Wuwa Vision. Excellent job that they have been doing. Here is video footage on the ground, parking lot filling up with MIC Model 3.

 

[copyhacker]

As I look over things, it would be interesting if Y production preparations can be pulled forward to the end of December.

3. Make staffing changes. Accelerate training on new lines where possible. Begin ranger training on Y. Begin preparations for Y field service inventory and position field inventory as appropriate globally.

The mobile service tech who did my air filter replacement a month ago said he’d seen a Model Y at the Charlotte service Center the week before for training (and that it was amazing). So they were starting service training at the end of October.

Just one data point, but confirmed by a Y sighting here in town that same week.

 

[madodel]

What is puzzling to me is that the Thai rescue project was carried out by SpaceX and never had anything to do with Tesla.

I wish I didn't have to scroll past dozens of posts about the court case, but I guess the forum moderators must think it's an ok subject

SpaceX is privately held and the crooks can't manipulate its value.

 

[mongo]

SpaceX is privately held and the crooks can't manipulate its value.

I think @MartinAustin 's point may be that this is a Tesla Investor forum, and the only link is Elon.

Change of venue has been requested previously:

New thread:
Unsworth Vs Musk deformation trial

 

[KarenRei]

Rating by Citigroup, maintained Sell by this guy Itai Michaeli.

View attachment 484558

Fun fact: "itai" (痛い) means "it hurts" / "ouch!" in Japanese.

 

[KarenRei]

I think @MartinAustin 's point may be that this is a Tesla Investor forum, and the only link is Elon.

Change of venue has been requested previously:

This is obviously a decision for the moderators, but - for right or wrong (correct answer: for wrong) - I think the outcome of this trial is probably the biggest SP-impacting event we're facing in the near term, apart from things like analyst upgrades / downgrades whenever they happen, or any "unexpected news".

 

[madodel]

I think @MartinAustin 's point may be that this is a Tesla Investor forum, and the only link is Elon.

Change of venue has been requested previously:

Deformation of the stock price is a possibility if this lawsuit goes against Elon.

 

[jeewee3000]

Ah, there we go again!

View attachment 484546

>insert Elon-quote about the nature of S-curves<

 

[Singuy]

What is puzzling to me is that the Thai rescue project was carried out by SpaceX and never had anything to do with Tesla.

I wish I didn't have to scroll past dozens of posts about the court case, but I guess the forum moderators must think it's an ok subject

What is really puzzling is why on national TV he tells CNN Elon should stick the sub up his ass. You are interviewed as a hero and just can't hold yourself from saying something crazy like that? So you thought Elon was stealing your 5 mins of Fame so the natural approach is Kamikaze? I am still wondering if it was scripted because none of it made any sense.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Look at the rightmost column from the EuroNCAP tests - displaying driver assistance results. Quite the lead!

View attachment 484559

https://www.euroncap.com/en/ratings-rewards/driver-assistance-systems/



This video shows the Model X being tested:

I was honestly shocked at the number of manufacturers/models that beat Tesla in the pedestrian detection category. I can't even get the entire list in a snippet. But, after the list presented in the screenshot below, there is a Renault on the list before the Model 3 shows up. And even after that, before the Model X shows up, there is an Audi, a Peugeot, Skoda, Range Rover, and the Ford Focus.

In all, there are 10 manufacturers who were rated higher than Tesla in this crucial category - BMW, Toyota, Ford, VW, Mazda, Skoda, Subaru, SEAT, Mercedes, and Renault.

How could SO many manufacturers have a better pedestrian detection system, when the entire crutch of the AP system is that cameras do a better job of recognizing and distinguishing objects? I honestly expected Tesla to be at the 95% mark and everyone else to be at least 10 points behind. It's eye-opening to say the least. Running over a pedestrian 25% of the time in testing does NOT bode well for FSD to be ready in the next few years. I would think that number needs to be in the 99.999 range.

What am I missing here? I am thinking that another good test would be to test false positives - it's possible that since other manufacturers only need to protect pedestrians and do not have a assisted driving feature included in their models, it's possible that they have gone super aggressive on pedestrian recognition. I wonder if a dead animal in the road would cause the system to slam on brakes as well.

Safety Ratings Sorted on Pedestrian Crossing

 

[LJS22]

This is obvious a decision for the moderators, but - for right or wrong (correct answer: for wrong) - I think the outcome of this trial is probably the biggest SP-impacting event we're facing in the near term, apart from things like analyst upgrades / downgrades whenever they happen, or any "unexpected news".

After the Post Q3 movement I expect a lot of swing traders to place their bets before Q4 ends or a Elon Musk email leaks. The next big move is likely going to be “Tesla hits low-end guidance on 2019 deliveries” or “Tesla fails to meet guidance only delivering 355,000 this year”
I don’t think the trial means much to investors outside of a bear raid to make it seem significant. But those guys get excited about Elon Musk jaywalking.

 

[LJS22]

I was honestly shocked at the number of manufacturers/models that beat Tesla in the pedestrian detection category. I can't even get the entire list in a snippet. But, after the list presented in the screenshot below, there is a Renault on the list before the Model 3 shows up. And even after that, before the Model X shows up, there is an Audi, a Peugeot, Skoda, Range Rover, and the Ford Focus.

In all, there are 10 manufacturers who were rated higher than Tesla in this crucial category - BMW, Toyota, Ford, VW, Mazda, Skoda, Subaru, SEAT, Mercedes, and Renault.

How could SO many manufacturers have a better pedestrian detection system, when the entire crutch of the AP system is that cameras do a better job of recognizing and distinguishing objects? I honestly expected Tesla to be at the 95% mark and everyone else to be at least 10 points behind. It's eye-opening to say the least. Running over a pedestrian 25% of the time in testing does NOT bode well for FSD to be ready in the next few years. I would think that number needs to be in the 99.999 range.

What am I missing here? I am thinking that another good test would be to test false positives - it's possible that since other manufacturers only need to protect pedestrians and do not have a assisted driving feature included in their models, it's possible that they have gone super aggressive on pedestrian recognition. I wonder if a dead animal in the road would cause the system to slam on brakes as well.

Safety Ratings Sorted on Pedestrian Crossing

View attachment 484566

Some systems are built to pass test, and some are built for the real world.

 

[KarenRei]

I was honestly shocked at the number of manufacturers/models that beat Tesla in the pedestrian detection category. I can't even get the entire list in a snippet. But, after the list presented in the screenshot below, there is a Renault on the list before the Model 3 shows up. And even after that, before the Model X shows up, there is an Audi, a Peugeot, Skoda, Range Rover, and the Ford Focus.

In all, there are 10 manufacturers who were rated higher than Tesla in this crucial category - BMW, Toyota, Ford, VW, Mazda, Skoda, Subaru, SEAT, Mercedes, and Renault.

How could SO many manufacturers have a better pedestrian detection system, when the entire crutch of the AP system is that cameras do a better job of recognizing and distinguishing objects? I honestly expected Tesla to be at the 95% mark and everyone else to be at least 10 points behind. It's eye-opening to say the least. Running over a pedestrian 25% of the time in testing does NOT bode well for FSD to be ready in the next few years. I would think that number needs to be in the 99.999 range.

What am I missing here? I am thinking that another good test would be to test false positives - it's possible that since other manufacturers only need to protect pedestrians and do not have a assisted driving feature included in their models, it's possible that they have gone super aggressive on pedestrian recognition. I wonder if a dead animal in the road would cause the system to slam on brakes as well.

Safety Ratings Sorted on Pedestrian Crossing

View attachment 484566

You seem to be confused. That's not a "Pedestrian Crossing" category. That category is called "Vulnerable Road Users", and it's predominantly about how injured they get in an accident. Automated safety figures are the rightmost (purple) category, "Safety Assist".

I posted earlier a screenshot of what Model X loses points for in this category. To repeat:

Compare that injury graph to one for the Mercedes CLA:

 

[jerry33]

I was honestly shocked at the number of manufacturers/models that beat Tesla in the pedestrian detection category. I can't even get the entire list in a snippet. But, after the list presented in the screenshot below, there is a Renault on the list before the Model 3 shows up. And even after that, before the Model X shows up, there is an Audi, a Peugeot, Skoda, Range Rover, and the Ford Focus.

What you're missing is that they don't have a better detection system. They have less injury when the pedestrian gets hit (green column). None of those come even close to the 94% of the Tesla's detection system (purple column) score (see a few posts above which actually shows the Tesla data), which isn't shown in the graph you've posted, so the Tesla doesn't hit the pedestrian in the first place.

 

[Remus]

After the Post Q3 movement I expect a lot of swing traders to place their bets before Q4 ends or a Elon Musk email leaks. The next big move is likely going to be “Tesla hits low-end guidance on 2019 deliveries” or “Tesla fails to meet guidance only delivering 355,000 this year”
I don’t think the trial means much to investors outside of a bear raid to make it seem significant. But those guys get excited about Elon Musk jaywalking.

Isn't it great to see TeslaChart spend money and time based on his illusion? Shows his judgement.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

TBH does ANYBODY buy a car based on how safe it is for the pedestrian you hit? I like to think I'm a nice guy, but give me a button that makes my car 1% safer for ME, and 2% more dangerous to anybody I hit, and I'm mashing that button real hard.