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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I love this kind of thing. We had painters at our house and one of them just casually mentioned you couldn't build an electric truck because the motor wouldn't be strong enough. I told him it is the opposite and that is why trains are diesel electric hybrids. This would be the perfect video to point him to. Especially since it is a Ford video and not a Tesla video.

That would be why he’s a painter. ;)
 
CONJECTURE: Musk totally sand bagged the model y availability dates to not undermine model 3 demand.

CONCLUSION: model y will be available ~9 months earlier than forecasted. So in q1 2020.

One will gettya three that I am right.
Maybe the extra part orders were for Model Y. Like you said why release a date if it will kill Model 3 orders. 9mo still too far out.
 
More OT'ish but also a very important reason I'll stick to EVs and never get anything HY-powered!

That hydrogen fueling station detonation (and it was a literal detonation, not just a deflagration - unlike simple hydrocarbons, hydrogen is very prone to detonations)? It only involved a mere estimated 1-4kg of hydrogen. Yet was powerful enough to detonate airbags in a car passing on a nearby street.

And just as interesting - the cause was two bolts that weren't tightened enough when fitted. So human error. When working with volatile fuels like HY which potentially can kill people in a large blast area there really should be no human errors. But that is impossible since we all are humans.

The estimated 1-4 kgs could have been 5000 since that is the upper limit of the size of hydrogen tanks not needing approval. This limit is from an EU directive:

Seveso - Major accident hazards - Environment - European Commission
 
Agree with every part of this. One just has to read NASA's hydrogen handling safety guidelines to get a sense of what working with it is like. That hydrogen fueling station detonation (and it was a literal detonation, not just a deflagration - unlike simple hydrocarbons, hydrogen is very prone to detonations)? It only involved a mere estimated 1-4kg of hydrogen. Yet was powerful enough to detonate airbags in a car passing on a nearby street. It ignites with a literal order of magnitude less ignition energy (levels that common electronic devices are not rated to suppress) and burns in almost any fuel-air mixture, from several percent up to 3/4ths. It pools under overhangs and in buildings in explosive mixtures. Leaks from hydrogen pipes can enter pipes above them, follow them to their destinations, and pool there. Leaked hydrogen (leaks from almost anything) destroys ozone, too.

Liquid hydrogen is a whole different can of worms - explosive mixes of vaporized liquid hydrogen are first ground hugging (due to the low temperature), then buoyant. It freezes oxygen solid; solid oxygen crystals in liquid hydrogen are explosive. Liquefied air pooling in random spots on hydrogen-fueled spacecraft is a constant bugbear. Liquid hydrogen takes hydrogen's property of embrittlement via intercalation, and adds to it embrittlement via cold, and takes gaseous hydrogen's properties and amplifies them by the increased density. Also, hydrogen also comes in two phases (ortho and para), and the equilibrium ratio varies based on temperature - but the conversion is not instantaneous (takes days). Conversion from ortho to para gives off heat, can be unintentionally catalyzed in some circumstances, and thus creates an overpressure hazard, and even in the best case, means you have to spend more energy making LH2 and/or face significant boiloff problems.

I find it weird that I still see some people clinging to the idea of hydrogen cars (usually, I find, people who are very ignorant about EVs, and unaware of some of the most basic aspects of the hydrogen fuel cycle, such as its inefficiency). At least in rockets there's an excuse for upper stages due to the Isp. But even then... for example, if you wanted to launch a spacecraft on a high-dV trajectory, rather than using a hydrolox upper stage on a 2-stage vehicle, you can use a higher payload kerolox (or methalox) 2-stage vehicle to a lower-dV trajectory and just use the extra payload to increase your spacecraft's propellant tanks (so it can finish providing the requisite dV) - thus effectively transforming your kerolox/methalox launch stack from a 2-stage vehicle into a 3-stage vehicle and outperforming the hydrolox vehicle. And your 2-stage kerolox/methalox vehicle has a fundamental cost advantage (both development and operations) in that both stages are basically the same design, gain economies of scale, and likely share the same engines (just with vacuum nozzles on the upper stage).
Disagree with some of this and @Fact Checking post, but too off-topic and involved for adequate response.
 
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CONJECTURE: Musk totally sand bagged the model y availability dates to not undermine model 3 demand.

CONCLUSION: model y will be available ~9 months earlier than forecasted. So in q1 2020.

One will gettya three that I am right.

I'm not willing to say as a fact that Tesla sandbagged Model Y timelines. But it's increasingly struck me as very much within the realm of possibility. They had every motive to do so, to avoid Osbourning 3 sales, to push fence-sitters off the fence, and to make "competitors" more complacent about what they had to produce by when in order to compete. Tesla also doesn't want to risk another production timing miss, and sandbagging helps there too.
 
CONJECTURE: Musk totally sand bagged the model y availability dates to not undermine model 3 demand.

CONCLUSION: model y will be available ~9 months earlier than forecasted. So in q1 2020.

One will gettya three that I am right.

I sure hope you are right! One would think that getting the Y into production should be much easier since it shares so much with the Model 3. Then again ... I've never built a car so who knows.

One thing I do know ... Model Y will be a slam dunk hit that will make Model 3 demand pale in comparison, at least in this country.
 
I don't think this is an empty bill at all. It is forcing CARB to develop a firm funding plan for the program.

Maybe they could fund it with a small tax on auto parts. You know, things like spark plugs, engine belts, radiator hoses, alternators, fuel pumps, brake pads, air and oil filters, etc. That way all motorists have to pay their share. :D
 
I'm not willing to say as a fact that Tesla sandbagged Model Y timelines. But it's increasingly struck me as very much within the realm of possibility. They had every motive to do so, to avoid Osbourning 3 sales, to push fence-sitters off the fence, and to make "competitors" more complacent about what they had to produce by when in order to compete. Tesla also doesn't want to risk another production timing miss, and sandbagging helps there too.

I think this was a given, due to the repeated stress on "volume" production in their timelines.

I would take it with a grain of salt, though. Keep in mind how long it took volume production to happen on the Model 3, despite hitting their deadline on starting Model 3 production. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Y start going out early next year, but I'm also expecting to initially ramp closely to the Model 3. They probably have built-in a lot more wiggle room for the major part of the S curve, given the Model 3 production delays.
 
I guess this is the model Y design Elon mentioned on the ride the lightning interview.
They are moving from 70 stamped steel and aluminium pieces on Model 3 to just 2 aluminium castings and 2 joiners for Model Y. This will then move to a single casting in the future.
I guess the 4 part design for Model Y is v1 of this new casting machine and the single casting will be v2.
Do you think this will be built in the new Lathrop facility? It would significantly reduce the space required for Model Y production at Fremont, better explaining the location change from GF1.

Sounds like collision etc. repairs will be easy
 
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I'm not willing to say as a fact that Tesla sandbagged Model Y timelines. But it's increasingly struck me as very much within the realm of possibility. They had every motive to do so, to avoid Osbourning 3 sales, to push fence-sitters off the fence, and to make "competitors" more complacent about what they had to produce by when in order to compete. Tesla also doesn't want to risk another production timing miss, and sandbagging helps there too.

To sandbag, or not to sandbag. That is the question.
To predict the time as if everything goes right. Or to triple it, as Scotty would have done.

Lets just double it. That sounds about right!
 
I think this was a given, due to the repeated stress on "volume" production in their timelines.

I would take it with a grain of salt, though. Keep in mind how long it took volume production to happen on the Model 3, despite hitting their deadline on starting Model 3 production. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Y start going out early next year, but I'm also expecting to initially ramp closely to the Model 3. They probably have built-in a lot more wiggle room for the major part of the S curve, given the Model 3 production delays.
The Model 3 ramp delay mostly has to do with battery pack assembly, which is no longer an issue since Y uses the same pack.
 
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