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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I disagree the reason the shorts are able to manipulate the share price is that the "big money" is sitting on the sidelines. The real reason is the "big money" is the shorts (or at least has the same goal, to destroy or slow down Tesla). It's not sitting on the sidelines. The share price could go as high as you like and the shorts are still going to be able to impact it because they have big money behind them.
Last I checked, Tesla didn't own any media/news conglomerates, advertising agencies, oil production or reserves, pipelines, heavy equipment manufacturers, etc.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
There are good reasons for that:
1) Seasonality of car sales
2) Tesla's transition to overseas sales during Q1.
3) Tax credit expiration push-forward.
Why do you think it's typical for quarterly car sales to be compared to the year-ago quarter? And that's without considering factors #2 and #3. When all three factors are considered, it should be assumed the sales QoQ would be down, not up.
From your link to that test:
You see? They even entered three shorts in the original test!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Unless you are Matt LeBord. Then he doesn't care about tomorrow. He wants to see more expense and less revenue. You know? So they can be more like BMW? /s
Some notable messages on the benelux fb groups:
- somebody claiming a home delivery today (on sunday)
- some Dutch guy claiming to have just received his Model 3 in Groningen. Could have been yesterday.
We’ll see if the numbers still go up but the quarter ends in less than 10 minutes in Europe.
anthonyj
Stonks
dc_h
Active Member
These are likely sent via intermodal shipping, so harder to track.
The admin of one of the Benelux (closed) FB groups caught a spectacular crash on his Model 3 dashcam today in Germany. I expect the footage to be on a certain EV enthusiast site tomorrow. Apparently dashcams are illegal in Germany, but the German police was happy to get the footage.
Sooner or later the general public will realise the value of this dascam feature, and as far as I know, only Tesla has this built in by default. Just like Sentry mode catching thiefs and vandals, it raises awareness about Tesla.
Sooner or later the general public will realise the value of this dascam feature, and as far as I know, only Tesla has this built in by default. Just like Sentry mode catching thiefs and vandals, it raises awareness about Tesla.
I found the flaw in your thinking. Q1 showed no such thing. +100% is not a taper. For many reasons general and specific to this Q4-to-Q1 transition, YoY is the only metric applicable.
CalX
Member
[QUOTE="Sancho, post: 3796755, Yes, but revenues were down 41% QOQ.
Tesla needs to demonstrate that Q1 was an aberration. I think they will, you think they will, but big money needs to see the numbers.[/QUOTE]
If you look at global EV sales and even ICE sales, there is always a drop from Q4 to Q1. The short thesis that a drop in Q1 signifies a demand cliff was clearly proven wrong. Shorts like to cherry pick month over month or QOQ. The first month and even the second is always much less than the 3rd month of the quarter yet they will say July production dropped significantly from June and call it a credit cliff next month, no demand confirmed. They also try to look at current production and extrapolate annual production based off of a constant rate, ignoring production rate growth towards the end of the year. They also are conveniently neglecting any GF3 production because that is never going to happen in their eyes. Study the month to month and quarter to quarter trends from all years past and this pattern is clear as it applies to all manufacturers, especially Tesla.
Another example: BMW cars, see how Q1 is always less than Q4?
Tesla needs to demonstrate that Q1 was an aberration. I think they will, you think they will, but big money needs to see the numbers.[/QUOTE]
If you look at global EV sales and even ICE sales, there is always a drop from Q4 to Q1. The short thesis that a drop in Q1 signifies a demand cliff was clearly proven wrong. Shorts like to cherry pick month over month or QOQ. The first month and even the second is always much less than the 3rd month of the quarter yet they will say July production dropped significantly from June and call it a credit cliff next month, no demand confirmed. They also try to look at current production and extrapolate annual production based off of a constant rate, ignoring production rate growth towards the end of the year. They also are conveniently neglecting any GF3 production because that is never going to happen in their eyes. Study the month to month and quarter to quarter trends from all years past and this pattern is clear as it applies to all manufacturers, especially Tesla.
Another example: BMW cars, see how Q1 is always less than Q4?
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Stock index futures are strong, especially for the Nasdaq, following a truce of sorts in the trade war.
MarketWatch - 20 minutes ago: Dow futures surge more than 260 points after Trump and Xi agree to not impose more tariffs
MarketWatch - 20 minutes ago: Dow futures surge more than 260 points after Trump and Xi agree to not impose more tariffs
That’s Tim Seymour, Recently he disclosed he was short the stock. Not sure if he still is... The Fast Money traders talk their book, it’s one of the reasons to do the show....
pz1975
Active Member
OT
Not sure where to put this but since it’s the weekend:
Tesla, other EVs required to have 'traditional engine' sound to meet new EU rule
Note that is only when the car is reversing or going forward below 12 mph/19 kph.
Not sure where to put this but since it’s the weekend:
Tesla, other EVs required to have 'traditional engine' sound to meet new EU rule
Note that is only when the car is reversing or going forward below 12 mph/19 kph.
i for 1 data point continue to very slowly, in retirement, DCA on irregular intervals
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Even last quarter...their highly touted "disaster" quarter, they were STILL over 100% growth over Q1 2018.
What gives?
Dan
EVNow
Well-Known Member
One time inventory build / inability to deliver all the orders / major reduction in S&X because of tax credit pull forward/Raven.
Just looked at Google news feed for Tesla. It seems like the FUD is working overtime to downplay the upcoming Q2 sales number. Either the goal posts are moved or “their profit margin will be lower even with a record quarter” or second half of 2019 won’t be as good.
Pure horse$*%#+. Seriously, folks... don’t be surprised by a massive bear raid the day after the sales figures are out. For all the longs out there, hold on and ride it out. It sucks that it is going to take longer because all of the market manipulation going on, but eventually it will be painfully obvious to even the forces trying to undermine the mission, that Tesla is not going anywhere.
Pure horse$*%#+. Seriously, folks... don’t be surprised by a massive bear raid the day after the sales figures are out. For all the longs out there, hold on and ride it out. It sucks that it is going to take longer because all of the market manipulation going on, but eventually it will be painfully obvious to even the forces trying to undermine the mission, that Tesla is not going anywhere.
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In the US, the Cadillac CT6 comes standard with surround view recording since it uses them for its Super Cruise, just like Tesla.
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