Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

The efficiency of the electric drivetrain is clearly below Tesla. However, since Ford took a lot of "inspiration" from Tesla I expect it can follow also on the software tweaks and improve the range in the process.

Wishful thinking.

First off, we start by presuming that Ford even can update the motor controller OTA, which is a big IF (see Jaguar's inability to update their brake control system despite having "OTA updates).

Secondly, the Ford design is clearly a dual PM system. You can't freewheel a PM like you can an induction motor; you can't shut off permanent magnets. Hence a 10% difference in range between the FWD and AWD versions.

Third, like most inefficient vehicles, the efficiency isn't so much from the powertrain as it is from the vehicle itself: aerodynamics primary, weight and tires secondary, other loss mechanisms tertiary. Contrary to popular myth, you cannot make any arbitrary-shaped vehicle be efficient if your engineers are just "clever enough".

 

[Tslynk67]

Lot of volatility in pre-market. After being a touch red early on, has been in, or around, $353 mostly, then popped above $354, before diving back to Friday's close (UNCH). Odd movements IMO.

 

[anthonyj]

Does Tesla bring a lift to your job?

Unfortunately, many Tesla owners need to take their cars to actual service centers where waits can be very long.

Most of the car buying public trust traditional auto companies more than Tesla.

Idk man, seems like the car buying public trusts Tesla. No advertising and a huge backlog of orders. I’ve never had an issue with service. People who live in the sticks are pretty insignificant to Teslas long term success. Ford will sell 50 of these ugly ass “Mustangs” a month... by the time it launches we will see Model Y with 500 mile range for $45k

 

[HG Wells]

Something else about Ford range.
The 300 mile range is a combination of city and highway.
The cd (air drag) of the car has a much more pronounced effect on the highway than city streets.

Going from a nissan leaf to a model 3 I noticed the much lower wh/mi I got in the model 3 when driving above 60.
They were similar at 45 mph but very very different at 80 mph.

The mustang is going to be bad at speeds above 70 and really terabile above 80.
Couple this with slow charging and it just cant be used for trips.

 

[bhtooefr]

Contrary to popular myth, you cannot make any arbitrary-shaped vehicle be efficient if your engineers are just "clever enough".

You can sometimes make an aerodynamic shape look like an arbitrary shape if your stylists are clever enough, but this almost looks like they did the opposite:

That almost looks like they took an less aerodynamic shape, and tried to black out the spoiler and part of the roofline to make it look like it was more aerodynamic than it really was.

(I suspect that they did this for rear headroom reasons, and the spoiler is probably helping the drag coefficient by keeping flow attached on the higher roof, but I'd also not be surprised if the Cd is in the 0.27-0.29 range, not the 0.23 of the Model Y.)

 

[HG Wells]

Even the web hosting software agrees with me.
Type "Tesla range Ford range. "

See what word the computer wants you to fix.
View attachment 478257
Notice the green underline.

 

[AlexS]

Here's one thing that I don't think anyone's pointed out: the dev cycle for the Mach-E has only been 2 years so far per the launch presentation, with one more year planned before the cars ship.

Three years is ludicrous, especially on a new platform. Not even Tesla's pulled that off (AFAIK WhiteStar (Model S) was started in 2007, and BlueStar (Model 3) was on the roadmaps in 2007).

I expect this to either be late or half-baked. (Or both. Why not both?)

Mach-E is MEB platform with Samsung SDI prismatic cells, so it has been tested enough. Body kit is not hard to develop in 2 years.

 

[bhtooefr]

Mach-E is MEB platform with Samsung SDI prismatic cells, so it has been tested enough. Body kit is not hard to develop in 2 years.

Citation that it actually is MEB? I know we had tossed that around in this thread (myself I pointed out that if it was shared with anyone it would be MEB, but that's not saying it is MEB), but I hadn't seen proof.

If it is MEB, that would explain the speed of development, though.

 

[Krugerrand]

Now that the ridiculous Ford partnership discussion has been put to bed, let me introduce the real .1% partnership potential; Tesla and ToyRUs.

 

[Unpilot]

SP up in pre-market...ranging from up .70 to up 2.50

 

[thx1139]

Does Tesla bring a lift to your job?

Unfortunately, many Tesla owners need to take their cars to actual service centers where waits can be very long.

Most of the car buying public trust traditional auto companies more than Tesla.

Car buying public deal with dealerships, not auto companies and people do not trust nor like dealing with auto dealerships. They are like health insurance companies, you deal with them because you have to deal with them. You may like your doctor, but no one likes the insurance company.

 

[ReflexFunds]

This actually correct. There is a reason Tesla has had more battery fires per unit than any other EV. NMC density is improving and newer formulations using less cobalt should be cheaper. Remember that all of Dahn's work has been with NMC chemistry, I expect Tesla will eventually switch to it, probably already being used in the Semi.

Not all NCA and NMC are created equal. Tesla has done a lot of work to limit the instability of its chemistry.
Further to this, Tesla's choice of the smaller canned cylindrical format helps limit instability.
The very precise BMS temperature management reduces the risks further.

In addition to this Tesla introduced a very different new pack design for Model 3 using pack materials with low heat conductivity and using inbuilt thermometers.

Looking at Tesla's historic cumulative fleet stats isn't useful as it consists of multiple generations of chemistry, cell design, software updates and pack designs.

I think you'll find extremely limited evidence of Model 3 fires however.

It is possible to compensate for the risks of NCA chemistry and Tesla has now done this.

That's not to say Tesla will blindly stick to NCA. They will research all chemistry possibilities. Maybe the 1 million mile battery chemistry tailored for Robotaxis will be NMC based, but Tesla & Dahn are researching ways to make single crystal NCA cathodes too. I don't think safety will be a barrier to continued NCA use at Tesla and they have still so far made the most progress on cost per kwh, energy density and cobalt reduction down the NCA path.

 

[KarenRei]

You can sometimes make an aerodynamic shape look like an arbitrary shape if your stylists are clever enough, but this almost looks like they did the opposite:

View attachment 478258

That almost looks like they took an less aerodynamic shape, and tried to black out the spoiler and part of the roofline to make it look like it was more aerodynamic than it really was.

(I suspect that they did this for rear headroom reasons, and the spoiler is probably helping the drag coefficient by keeping flow attached on the higher roof, but I'd also not be surprised if the Cd is in the 0.27-0.29 range, not the 0.23 of the Model Y.)

Here's what I immediately notice.

1) Really big wake in the back.
2) Non-aero wheels.
3) Bulbous (traditional ICE-style) engine compartment followed by a sharp kink at the windshield
4) Relatively large side mirrors. Not truck-mirror huge, but not that low cross section.

I'd expect an independent lab to measure it at ~0,30, although I imagine Ford would probably try to claim that it's 0,25 or so Automakers BS so much with their official drag coefficients. Tesla for their part actually has their claims test out when independent labs measure them.

You're right that it is really weird how they took a less-efficient shape and tried to camouflage it to look like a more efficient shape. But if you want that typical CUV-style near-vertical hatch, that sort of draggy rear end is practically obligatory.

 

[AlexS]

Citation that it actually is MEB? I know we had tossed that around in this thread (myself I pointed out that if it was shared with anyone it would be MEB, but that's not saying it is MEB), but I hadn't seen proof.

If it is MEB, that would explain the speed of development, though.

A magical place exists it is called google.com you can find plenty of articles confirming it is MEB from very recent time

like this one Ford to build more electric cars on VW's MEB basis - electrive.com
or this "We want to establish MEB as an industry standard"
and many many others

 

[bhtooefr]

However, those sources say that Ford will use MEB starting in 2023 for a European-market product.

This KBB piece says it's not MEB, and instead is Ford Global Electric Architecture.

 

[lascavarian]

We use the frunk on every trip. It's the best suitcase ever.

We use it on the 3 but I have say we use the rear hatch 10x for every use of the frunk . The hatch area seems a little more climate controlled and there is a little less bending over. We use it more for supplies we want handy but don’t get used quite as often but of course YMMV.

 

[Unpilot]

So the big three take away's from the Ford so far.

1. it won't have the range Ford is implying.
2. it won't have a nationwide fast charging network...and will probably charge slower.
3. it wont be built in large numbers as the battery supply is unknown at this time.

 

[AlexS]

However, those sources say that Ford will use MEB starting in 2023 for a European-market product.

This KBB piece says it's not MEB, and instead is Ford Global Electric Architecture.

Ford Global Electric Architecture aka MEB.

 

[JRP3]

And, IIRC, Dahn's work was generally applicable to other cathodes, he was just using NMC because that's what was easiest to get premade for his electrolyte studies?

All of Dahn's work that I'm aware of has been on NMC. Not sure how much would translate to NCA.

 

[mongo]

How are service centers full of engine mechanics valuable to an EV company?
You need battery and motor experts and electrical engineering expertise. This a completely different skillset and it is not going to be easy to hire new staff with these skills. It only makes sense to hire these new staff in proportion to EV fleet size - hence Ford will have far fewer than Tesla with less geographical coverage.
You also need different machinery to repair EV powertrains.

The pack and drive unit would not be repaired at a service center. Rather, they would be swapped as complete units like Tesla does with the cores sent back. (Same as dropping in a remanufactured engine or trans produced in a certified controlled environment versus doing it on-site)
If anything, the techs will need less training. Diagnostic software says swap motor, DS says swap pack, or engineer in Detroit says swap both.