Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Tesla is contracting for major data centers to be constructed - most recently with Dell.

The huge cooling platform being built next to the new GigaTexas' South extension is very likely for that purpose.

If Tesla leverages Dell's manufacturing ability for assembling the computer hardware based on Tesla's Nvidia purchases into rack-mount modules, that would speed up the process immensely over having to do it themselves.

 

[dl003]

I gave it my best shot to explain how we don't have to paint a dark picture to get the point across.

You have a preference for doing it that way sometimes, for whatever reason.

When anyone does this, egregiously, I'm quite likely to offer balance by presenting a perspective focused on the more likely outcome.

This seems to me as a more beneficial use of the forum than speculating upon unrealistic aspects, solely out of concern for the potential result of relative impossibilities.

Have you considered how someone proffering a marked tendency of offering negativity beyond any realistic possibility might also have their head in the sand?

Much of what you post is a useful counterpoint, even when it has a negative bent. This was less useful without some perspective to weight it against.

Apologies if it felt to you as though it were personal.

I'm just giving it to you straight, the risk I see. I don't comment on how Tesla runs its business as it's not my expertise. I'm just happy to be a bull riding the rollercoaster. However, trading is my profession and market sentiment is my study. I'm astounded you think this is negative speculation. To me, this is as sure as it gets, much like how you see a house fire and you think oh no the furniture is going to burn. Normally I'd want to be proven right and usually am, but in this case, it'd spell financial disaster for me and my family. So, think of me however you want.

 

[2daMoon]

View attachment 1048077

Elon sold huge numbers of shares on the open market in april 2022 and december 2022. The stock got hammered because of it. (see the chart)

Is it so strange that certain stockholders - even if they gained a lot from the runup earlier after the compensation plan - are of the opinion Elon should have done things differently?

Elon needs to look in the mirror on this. But he probably won't.

I remember at the time how some suggested he could have managed to arrange those sales directly with funds and such behind the scenes, without doing it in the open market. If so, maybe that will be considered next time this comes up.

 

[jeewee3000]

I remember at the time how some suggested he could have managed to arrange those sales directly with funds and such behind the scenes, without doing it in the open market. If so, maybe that will be considered next time this comes up.

Well let's hope he doesn't sell huge amounts of shares anymore.

That would not be congruent with his comments of wanting ~25% stake in Tesla.

 

[sunwarriors]

With all the talk of the vote of the comp plan, I was curious of the result back in 2018:

Tesla shareholders approve pay plan for Elon Musk worth up to $55 billion over 10 years

Tesla Inc. shareholders have approved a mammoth 10-year pay package for Chief Executive Elon Musk.

www.latimes.com

Looks like Tesla was worth $56 billion back then and 73% approved.

"Two major firms that advise institutional shareholders — Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services — had advised clients to reject the plan, mainly because of its large size and questions about whether the pay package would provide real motivation for Musk."

 

[2daMoon]

I'm just giving it to you straight, the risk I see. I don't comment on how Tesla runs its business as it's not my expertise. I'm just happy to be a bull riding the rollercoaster. However, trading is my profession and market sentiment is my study. I'm astounded you think this is negative speculation. To me, this is as sure as it gets, much like how you see a house fire and you think oh no the furniture is going to burn. Normally I'd want to be proven right and usually am, but in this case, it'd spell financial disaster for me and my family. So, think of me however you want.

You cannot say "it is as sure as it gets" after saying "How likely is what? Elon leaving out of spite? 0%." and both be sincere.

It is either one or the other. 0% is about as unsure as it gets. 100% is as sure as it gets.
(though, honestly, in an infinite universe, it IS possible. That is why I offered a more rational 0.025 out of ten)

Now, you mention "market sentiment" for the first time.

Prior to this the remarks appeared to be about your concern over Elon leaving actually happening, rather than it being about how market sentiment would be swayed by such a concern. Such a clarification completely changes the context of your posts.

I agree wholeheartedly that market sentiment can react fearfully pondering this eventuality, and, that those acting in fear could be detrimental to the SP.

The thing is, you putting this out there without making it clear your concern was over sentiment rather than the event actually happening might lead someone reading it to increase their fear in regard to their investment.

Thus, leading that reader toward, rather than away from, the scenario you describe as "it'd spell financial disaster for me and my family" as expressed.

Thanks for clearing that up. I agree with you that the spread of such a concern could negatively affect market sentiment.

You might have opened with that.

 

[mrmage]

@zhongwen2005, one of the Tesla reporters from China, is reporting that companies registered in the Lingang New Area of the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone (Of which Giga Shanghai is a part of) will be given permission to transfer listed data overseas for a one-year pilot program. There is no mention of whether data used for FSD will be a part of this pilot program, but I would guess so since that would most likely be the primary reason for this approval in the first place:

View attachment 1048018

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791423455008858444

Whoa, this could be big. AI compute resources in the west are much bigger than in China, at least for awhile.

Depending on the details, this might be an opportunity for Chinese companies to use this as a backdoor to offshore training to the west. At a minimum Tesla would be more attractive for joint ventures by leveraging this for companies vested in AI. Which is nearly everyone nowadays.

 

[MountainRatMat]

My neighbors didn't know that their Model 3 could drive itself. They assumed was just another update. He says, "What's FSD?"
One data point x strong weight given it was my next door neighbor and first person I asked in fact.

I'm shocked, (unless they're were among that lagging group). Isn't the car telling them that they "suck at driving, so here try me out?" or "Human score 45, Tesla 90, play again?"

I have a co-worker that let the 30 day trial pass without trying it. After I told them about it they are disappointed and will be getting a ride in my car shortly with the trial.

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink.

I hadn't used FSD for a couple years and in my opinion the progress is incredible. Bullish on the stock again as this gives me hope that Elon is right that it can be working by the end of the year. Which year I don't know but it seems completely feasible now where two years ago it would freak me out at multiple points in the drive. My wife even said she could sleep through the car driving itself, that is the real test!

 

[dl003]

You cannot say "it is as sure as it gets" after saying "How likely is what? Elon leaving out of spite? 0%." and both be sincere.

It is either one or the other. 0% is about as unsure as it gets. 100% is as sure as it gets.
(though, honestly, in an infinite universe, it IS possible. That is why I offered a more rational 0.025 out of ten)

Now, you mention "market sentiment" for the first time.

Prior to this the remarks appeared to be about your concern over Elon leaving actually happening, rather than it being about how market sentiment would be swayed by such a concern. Such a clarification completely changes the context of your posts.

I agree wholeheartedly that market sentiment can react fearfully pondering this eventuality, and, that those acting in fear could be detrimental to the SP.

The thing is, you putting this out there without making it clear your concern was over sentiment rather than the event actually happening might lead someone reading it to increase their fear in regard to their investment.

Thus, leading that reader toward, rather than away from, the scenario you describe as "it'd spell financial disaster for me and my family" as expressed.

Thanks for clearing that up. I agree with you that the spread of such a concern could negatively affect market sentiment.

You might have opened with that.

"As sure as it gets" referred to the 100% chance TSLA crashing if he leaves.

 

[2daMoon]

Well let's hope he doesn't sell huge amounts of shares anymore.

That would not be congruent with his comments of wanting ~25% stake in Tesla.

It is inevitable, isn't it?

He will have to sell huge amounts of shares to pay taxes on his stock options. It is only a matter of time.

 

[MountainRatMat]

I'm probably the biggest Elon fan here

Ooooh, so you are more than fully leveraged and have put 200% of your net worth in to $TSLA. I'd like to see who has put their money where there mouth is. Got to be a "bigger" Elon fan somewhere /s

 

[dl003]

Prior to this the remarks appeared to be about your concern over Elon leaving actually happening, rather than it being about how market sentiment would be swayed by such a concern. Such a clarification completely changes the context of your posts.

If you think my concern has been with Elon's leaving, you should reread my posts. My concern has always been what'd happen IF he left.

 

[2daMoon]

"As sure as it gets" referred to the 100% chance TSLA crashing if he leaves.

You are 100% sure he won't leave, and, you are 100% sure TSLA will crash should he leave. Got it. I agree. That's not what I'm talking about now.

How does repeating this over and over in an investor's forum without initially emphasizing a "market sentiment" context help you and your family avoid financial ruin?

Do you presume those reading will share your perspective and immediately grok this unmentioned context?

What if that assumption isn't true, and taken out of context your words affect a sliver of market sentiment toward the very thing you want to avoid? This is how it looks from where I responded.

I'm sincerely sorry that you are unable to see things from more than one perspective.

You may now have the last word.

 

[Singuy]

.... what?

Tesla has no external facing data center service, and it multiple steps from even being capable of offering one.

Meanwhile XAI is actually buying server space from one of the many companies actually offering it.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musks-xai-nears-10-bln-deal-rent-oracles-ai-servers-information-reports-2024-05-14/

How is billions of miles of car driving data applicable for solving general robotics AI for a thing that isn't a car?

All inputs on things like how humans behave around crosswalks, how other cars behave around other cars/objects/people, etc wouldn't be relevant to a walking robot.... and outputs (walking, hand manipulations, etc) would all be entirely different outputs/controls than what the car does- and with vastly more needed precision... if your car parks 25 mm further or nearer an object it's not an issue-- if your robot hand misses a fine motor control thing by 25mm it's a complete failure.

I mean there'd be SOME overlap in things like generally recognizing objects exist and they're X distance away, but that's not an especially hard AI issue and tons of folks have solutions that do that without Teslas data....And Optimus cameras/speed/etc are all different locations than the car...

So I don't see the 'billions of miles of driving data' thing being nearly the massive advantage for optimus development that it is for FSD development.




They share the same FSD computer... the cameras are different in placement (and I'd expect # in the final product)- and they for sure wouldn't share ALL the same SW as that'd make no sense.

Keep in mind they still don't have basic autopilot working on Cybertruck 6 months after first delivery despite being far more similar to other FSD-enabled cars than Optimus is... so it's not like they just toss the FSD stack onto Optimus and everything works right...

Dude I am talking about in a future alternative universe when Elon actually takes away AI future development from Tesla to XAI, which would free up massive amount of server space from Tesla. He can't move these datacenters from Tesla to XAi because it's Teslas property, so he will have to buy server space from them.

 

[dl003]

How does repeating this over and over in an investor's forum without initially emphasizing a "market sentiment" context help you and your family avoid financial ruin?

I choose my words very carefully. It's not my fault people like to jump to conclusion without reading the full text. Even without "market sentiment" mentioned, one should have been able to tell where I stand, if one wasn't so easily offended.

 

[rallykeeper]

With all the talk of the vote of the comp plan, I was curious of the result back in 2018:

Tesla shareholders approve pay plan for Elon Musk worth up to $55 billion over 10 years

Tesla Inc. shareholders have approved a mammoth 10-year pay package for Chief Executive Elon Musk.

www.latimes.com

Looks like Tesla was worth $56 billion back then and 73% approved.

"Two major firms that advise institutional shareholders — Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services — had advised clients to reject the plan, mainly because of its large size and questions about whether the pay package would provide real motivation for Musk."

The big change from the prior period is the large increase in holdings by passive investors (like ETFs and other index-matching strategies). TSLA's entry into the S&P 500 and other indices since 2018 increased passive holdings substantially.

Passive investors tend, but do not always have to, vote according to Glass Lewis and/or ISS.

The reciprocal of all of this is that if Glass Lewis or ISS determines that not ratifying the earlier plan would be detrimental to Tesla (which Tesla claims in their proxy statement), then they might actually recommend ratification. If so, then the proposal has a good chance of passing.

 

[FastEddieB]

I do not see TSLA crashing if Elon leaves as inevitable.

The risk of him leaving is already baked into the share price. It could easily go up once any uncertainty about leadership going forward is eliminated. There’s a chess axiom that may apply: “The threat is more powerful than the execution”.

I’d call it as 50/50, but those who know my investment philosophy probably already knew that.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Loving this video so far - Munro & bunch of youtubers on Cybertruck

 

[Knightshade]

Dude I am talking about in a future alternative universe when Elon actually takes away AI future development from Tesla to XAI,

He can't actually "take" anything though because it's not owned by Elon, it's owned by Tesla.

Now if he left and whatever CEO replaced him wanted to abandon all the existing AI related work, sure there'd now be useless datacenters--- otherwise not so much.

Do you think anyone who would replace him would do that? Just abandon all of that?

 

[Singuy]

He can't actually "take" anything though because it's not owned by Elon, it's owned by Tesla.

Now if he left and whatever CEO replaced him wanted to abandon all the existing AI related work, sure there'd now be useless datacenters--- otherwise not so much.

Do you think anyone who would replace him would do that? Just abandon all of that?

Okay the context is

Elon doesn't step down as CEO after losing his compensation because he is not a quitter
He will be taking FUTURE AI developments(meaning beyond FSD and supervised training for Tesla bots) to XAI because he will have a hard time hitting 25% ownership of Tesla.

He may CONTINUE to build out AI data centers at Tesla because it's a capex intensive project and the company, unlike XAI, is cash flow positive. However in this future scenario with FSD and Robotic solved (plus a much larger expansion of AI datacenters), there will be plenty of server space to rent out in which he will no longer be using Oracle.