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They past is no prediction of the future, but since 2019, tsla 10x up, 75% down, EM bought twitter, a global pandemic locked most people inside for a couple years, and a chatbot passed the Turing test. Not one person guessed any of that in 2019, and you want to know what's in store over the...

I try to find the best risk adjusted ROI for the next year or two, but don't blindly hold anything anymore. Although I don't expect NVDA to increase as much as some stocks, I have high confidence level that it has the best risk adjusted ROI. I don't see a point to guessing 5 years from now when...

A fair value for historical forward PE is around 35. With their net income and Blackwell shipping this quarter, they're probably in the right range around $1000+. RSI is starting to get overbought for QQQ, but not quite there for NVDA, so NVDA may get ahead of itself in the next day or week. If...

I loved the call. Blackwell is shipping earlier, and Jenson addressed why all generations of Nvidia GPUs will sell and continue to be the best choice for most AI workloads, despite customers building their own chips.

Whoa, this could be big. AI compute resources in the west are much bigger than in China, at least for awhile. Depending on the details, this might be an opportunity for Chinese companies to use this as a backdoor to offshore training to the west. At a minimum Tesla would be more attractive for...

Take a look at the Wayve videos, especially the ones driving around London. They've been doing it for a long time and it looks impressive. The Bill Gates blog on his ride there is credible, and that was a year ago. That made me wonder what else I was missing, so I looked into the recent cars...

Seems like Wayve has been using end to end AI for awhile. The 15 minutes of autonomous driving using their end to end AI tech in London is from 2021. I never heard of them before this, but it's funny that tech seems to converge around the same time. Their version used vision only at first, but...

The difference is that NVDA has traded on it's fundamentals, with a forward PE (31 now) that's very reasonable for it's growth, irrespective of the chatgpt moment. I've been blown away by fsd 12.4 too. But when 500k miles between disengagements is needed for production, 10 to 50 miles is a...

Go is complicated for a game, but not compared to predicting appropriate behaviors in the real world. Alphago was also a blend of algorithms and ML, whereas Tesla gave up on rules / algorithms because they didn't work in the real world. As far as complexity, Alphazero has about 20M parameters...

I asked ChatGPT4 about the conversion rate for my Tesla convertible bonds, taking into account splits. Last year, it responded authoritatively with an answer that was wrong. Today, ChatGPT4 gave the right answer. It's getting better, but it takes awhile. AlphaGo is predicting moves in a game...

Training creates the model parameters, which are then used for inference to predict the best behavior. The amount compute required for inference is closely related to model size. A small LLM of 10 to 20 GB parameters generates only a few tokens with a fast CPU, and perhaps dozens of tokens on a...

Although fast compared to training, inference is still compute and memory intensive compared to algorithms (ie hand coding). The code saved is small compared to model computing and size. Tesla's first priority and top challenge will be to get FSD to work, which includes reducing interventions...

What I meant is that datacenters can increase model sizes orders of magnitude larger by simply adding more computers. For edge computing applications like FSD, the model size is limited to available memory without expensive retrofits in the field. It's worth noting that real time edge models...

I just tried FSD 12 and was very impressed. Only 2 interventions needed over 30 miles and much more natural behavior, which is orders better than anything Tesla released before. As a potential investor though, I need to determine whether FSD can achieve an intervention rate of 100x better for...

My other investments are likely to grow too, and empirically I made the right decision. My former TSLA investment has grown enough in other assets that I can almost double the TSLA shares if I converted back. If TSLA has the potential to leap past $700 a share in 2024, I'm happy to accept my...

There's certainly an echo chamber effect. Many with unpopular views end up leaving. It's too bad, because investments are as much about headwinds as tailwinds. Although I sold off the last of my TSLA stake earlier this year, I would reopen a position if FSD or Teslabot gets close. For now, it...

Guess my thoughts about TSLA not breaking 170 without blowout earnings didn't age well. I'll admit that Tesla is not boring. Opened 170 cc for next Friday yesterday after making a few cents on 160, but will probably let them get assigned next week if TSLA continues up. Then write puts for...

It's usually 2 or 3 trading days after earnings where it gets really interesting. Aka it isn't over until the Friday lady sings.

Was going to do something similar because the results didn't seem to warrant the bump, but my CCs would be naked.

In case I want to try some AH action, is there a better way to check for the ER summary besides refreshing the Telsa IR page for the next hour? Edit: That was fast. NM...

Not following the logic, so maybe I'm misunderstanding the question. Theoretically, assignment can occur anytime the option holder (the buyer of the options) wants, but in practice it usually happens after expiration which is Friday (two days from now). Most option holders don't assign early...

Wrote Jan27 160c for 1.83 @ SP ~145.5 Should have been 1.88, but rushed and went long before realizing my mistake and lost a few cents to correct. :( Going to play this two ways: if SP pulls back, I'll close it before end of day. If SP goes up, I'll see what happens after earnings. Bought my...

I closed my options earlier this week because I didn't have a good sense of the direction at this point, with ER coming out. The profit estimates on here put Tesla 10% higher than the street. If that happens, I don't see the SP blowing past the 150 call wall this week after the recent run...

I've followed this thread on and off since the beginning, and remember when people started writing spreads. Idea was interesting, because my historical modeling showed a profit even with the occasional wipeouts. However, all it would take was some unlucky timing to be wiped out, so I concluded...

I just started writing calls and puts last day of Dec and am having a blast trading them. Other than writing weekly bull spreads, I view writing puts/calls as lower risk than buying calls/puts/spreads, assuming I'm willing to be assigned at my strikes. I'm surprised about all the dire...

The advantage of TBC is the cost. The LVCC was only $47M for about 1.7 miles, compared to average tunnel costs approaching $1B / mile in the US. Paving a road through an open field will always be cheaper than digging tunnels, but I haven't seen a lot of 1 mile long fields here, much less 5 or 10...

I hung on too long for taxes as well. My silver lining was that I closed a small spread on Dec 31, 2021 that was near expiration. As everyone here knows, the gain/loss on both legs can be huge even though the combined value is small. For example, a profitable $20k transaction might have a long...

Exactly this. The last thing the fed wants before inflation hits their targets is for everyone to celebrate by buying loads more assets.

I'm sure they'll do that when Tesla deems it safe and bug free. The implication is that they're not there yet. Whether it's due to driving, parking, onboarding, or any other number of aspects is anyone's guess.

I had Leonardo Dicaprio as my neighbor. For two days when he bought the house next our vacation rental. Guess that's as close to fame as I'll ever get :p

You're entitled to that, but so is anyone who has a contrary view. Neither is the point though. Blaming MSM or FUD for the Elon backers who became unhappy with his actions in 2022 is certainly not always the case, definitely not for myself, and likely for many others.

That's a convenient excuse, but Elon's former supporters are not influenced by that. This is what I mean when I said I capitulated on Elon, but don't see people turning on Tim Cook. They did not get turned off from Elon because of MSM or haters or anyone amplifying anything. I judged Elon...

Even if earnings is good, there is still no reason to unnecessarily drive the share price down or alienate customers. The two are not mutually exclusive.

Some / most people on this forum feel that Elon deserves a pass this past year because of his prior accomplishments. His net deeds are undoubtedly positive for this world, so maybe that's justified for anyone who bought substantially below $100 prior to 2022, when Elon put everything he had into...

They weren't tailgating. There was open road ahead, and the driver in back didn't expect our car to suddenly brake for no reason at all. Rear ends are almost always the rear car's fault as was this case. However, he asked my wife "Why did you brake?" There was nothing there." We felt bad...

Like being rammed from behind because autopilot phantom braked in the highway for absolutely no reason. Not a laughing matter because had my wife not immediately accelerated to override, the accident would have been much worse.

So ours was not counted. Phantom braking while on autopilot caused a rear end to our car, but the airbag was not deployed. Is a similar metric used for comparing to other cars, by only counting airbag or other active restraint being deployed?

Count me skeptical of how they get their data. Anecdotally, my wife was rear ended last year, because of Autopilot, with total miles driven < 50k miles. Either we're in the unluckiest 1% or Tesla doesn't count accidents like ours.

The price cuts sound like a good thing if margins are not hurt much. Supposedly Tesla has the efficiencies to absorb the cuts with massive demand. Edit: The SP is creeping back up. Surprising that this logic can come into play so quickly. Is there something else going on? Or maybe MMs just...

For the second year it's 80% of what you need, then 70% the third year, etc. It's partially offset by wage gains, but the wage-inflation gap increases with inflation so the problem never stops. At some point they need to bite the bullet, but gets harder every year.

Around two weeks ago, I sold off most my shares and options, and bought protective puts for remaining assets. Then I sold the remaining shares, leaving just my convertible bonds, and was net short TSLA for a little while. That's more than complete capitulation. The recent drop likely from one...

Great suggestion. No sense protecting TSLA down to $0, and there's a huge put wall at 100 as a backstop.

I'm looking for feedback on a diagonal collar to limit short term paper losses financed by writing a medium term call at a higher price. There's still downside risk but a lot of potential upside gains with P&D and ER coming out. The diagonal collar is free but I've never tried it. For example...

Hopefully I didn't close my Feb17 120 protective puts prematurely today. If TSLA drops tomorrow, I may sell puts with effective cost as a value stock (PE in the 20s). Should be a win whether I get the shares or not.

New global CEO. Plus Elon has said many times that he doesn't want to be CEO and that Tesla team has been executing really well.

They'll buy when the Tesla CEO is no longer controversial and SP is more attractive. Not now, but very possibly within the next few months.

Why is this irresponsible? Elon said his best guess is a recession in 2023 similar to 2009, and Tesla would likely prioritize growth even if profits were zero or slightly negative. Although someone can argue that he's making the best of a bad situation, Elon basically said that profits are...

I wonder if a decent amount of short action is coming from longs. Buying protective puts has a similar effect to selling shares because the mms will short in order to hedge. Investors with a large stake of TSLA (as a percentage of their assets) have seen so much wiped out that they might...

What's amazing is the timing for Elon selling right when the market bounced recently, preventing TSLA from participating. If not for that, we would have gotten the bounce.

Looks like we're all just irrational exuberance in sheep's clothing!* Looks like you're safe. For now. * Funny one liner generated by ChatGPT in response to the explanation being given to Tesla investors.