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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Again, please sell all your stock tomorrow, go full short and never cover if you are apalled by today's breaking news. Talk is cheap peeps.

Im annoyed by all you little people crying over stuff that doesnt matter.
ahh the good old “sell your stock” advice whenever someone is concerned about something involving a company they love where they have invested a substantial amount of their life savings. How dare they express any sort of concern, they must immediately sell all their stock Instead. Why do we even have shareholder voting on anything at AGMs, we should all just obey no matter what right?
 
^^ This ^^

If you are so put off by Elon's statements/tweets/ actions, I encourage you to sell your stock and move on. There are a lot of other companies out there with CEOs who are not nearly as controversial (I would use the work 'consequential' myself) that you can invest in. Life is too short to spend time whining on message boards.
So you are whining on a message board about other people whining? Life’s too short bro.
 
ahh the good old “sell your stock” advice whenever someone is concerned about something involving a company they love where they have invested a substantial amount of their life savings. How dare they express any sort of concern, they must immediately sell all their stock Instead. Why do we even have shareholder voting on anything at AGMs, we should all just obey no matter what right?
Oh you do whatever you want to do. I just dont want to see you reaping the rewards from holding the stock based on your ignorance. You dont deserve it.
 
Oh you do whatever you want to do. I just dont want to see you reaping the rewards from holding the stock based on your ignorance. You dont deserve it.
Wow.

I for one hope everyone on here who holds Tesla stock, including you, regardless of our disagreements on how we think the company should be run, will reap much reward in future.
 
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:) just a rhyme, but meaning is like movies with sound IIRC, as compared to silet movies. Used loosely (made up) for More drama ...

Since evening, I have been planning what I need to do tomorrow ... Fri I had closed some positions, sold Jan 25 400 CC and have 36K as cash ...
.. I wanted to sell shares in my personal at 300, but things don't go according to plan ... :)
 
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good to see some positive stuff from Rohan

Had a back and forth on Friday night with @elonmusk about a large AI data center investment he decided to approve, which he has been tracking closely for many months. Hard to imagine a CEO more involved in the most important details of their company than E

 

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Analyzing the situation it seems pretty clear what is happening. To keep it simple there's two situations.

1. Elon loses the shareholder lawsuit and doesn't get a new incentive package. Then all his work after 2018 will not be compensated, he will only have 13 percent of the shares, so it's really a loss of around 600 million options (300 million from 2018 and 300 from a hypothetical new incentive package)

2. Elon does not lose the lawsuit and a new incentive package comes modeled after the old one. His stake is 400 million shares he owns today + 600 million in stock options. He will have to sell 200-300 million shares for taxes, and exercise the rest of the options for stock. That's the ~25 percent Elon is demanding.

So the 25 percent is not really a number Elon randomly chose, but that's the amount that a new stock incentive plan and not taking his 2018 plan would end up at.

I think personally as a shareholder we are almost all fine with giving another incentive plan to him, but the way he's dragging us across the mud by threatening to stunt Tesla's growth in AI/robo is not something he should be doing, especially with what long-term shareholders did to support him over the years.
 
I see 3 fundamental differences now in 'Tesla the Company' vs when the Board of Directors created the 2018 CEO Comp. Plan:
  1. Tesla is now a fundamentally sound company (no debt, strong cash position, positive free cash flow). Remember, 'volatility is not risk' in spite of what short-faced bares would have you believe.
  2. Tesla has a diverse and growing product line (Model 3/Y ramp succeeded wildly; CT and Model 2 now started; Megapack and Tesla Energy products entering the steep part of their 'S' curves for growth; FSD+bots; manufacturing/licensing ie: bty cells, whole car factories)
  3. Tesla is self-fundingnow:
    1. We don't need to go back the the Market, ever, to grow the company. Just 2 years ago after Battery Day, Cathie Wood / ARK Invest was predicting Tesla would need to raise $90B from the market to fund their growth plans through 2030. Now we see that Tesla will need NOTHING from the Market
    2. Tesla is now near the limit on the number of shares it is allowed to issue, according to its bylaws. In fact, 'dilution' was a major risk for certain bears years ago, and will be mitigated soon enough by limiting employee compensation through stock grants, and eventually by stock buybacks
We, the shareholder, paid for these gains, accepted the risks, and that's why we are in this advantageous position going forward. For Elon to bring something actually new to the table, worth more dilution and its associated problems, we'd need to see another Master Plan. But wait, we already have M/P3 and its a 50+ yr plan.

On the other hand, giving Elon another huge swack of stock options invites more mischief from short sellers who even now live in hope for the day when Elon starts selling shares to pay the taxes on his stock-based compensation. Remember last time? It was just 1% of the companies shares, and the shortzes parlayed those fears into a 75% drop in the SP (from which it has still yet to recover even after 3 years). What do you think will happen before Apr 2028 when Elon inevitably sells 5% of TSLA (less dilution since Apr 2018) to pay the taxes due on excercising his stock options? How about when he sells his shares for cash to fund Mars Base One? The shortzes live for that day, I swear.

No, the Board needs to come up with a better plan (if Elon even wants to remain CEO). How about cash? That's still useful, right? The amount of money his time worth is now largely a function of continuity of vision and execution, not so much of introducing brilliant new chess moves.

IMO, the Board must address these two issues directly:
  1. how will the CEO be allowed to sell his stock grants in such a way as to not tank the SP; and
  2. is this a better deal for an already-profitable company than just paying a wage?
Perhaps if Tesla was required to buy lots of stock -or otherwise somehow directly invest in Spacex or Mars-X or whatever Elon wants to call that enterprise instead of compensating Elon directly - or at all - with Tesla shares -so there's no need to sell shares to pay taxes?

Edit - but Mars ambitions would get funded.
 
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I wouldn't get too excited just yet. When hiring for technical positions, the "What you'll do" section is usually in chronological order and order of importance. For this listing, production tasks are near the bottom of the list.

From this listing it sounds to me like they are looking for someone who can generate specs and work with multiple teams to make sure that Optimus is on track to be something that can eventually be manufactured on a large scale. But that doesn't say anything about how soon mass production will start. It just says that once they are ready to pull the trigger on mass production, they won't have to do a big redesign.

Unlike other companies, Tesla does not create prototypes that will probably never be manufactured and sold (see Boston Dynamics' Atlas robot).

At Tesla, manufacturability is part of the overall design. This job listing simply reflects that ethos.

When will Tesla pull that trigger on mass production of Optimus? I believe it will be happen as soon as Optimus has proven it can do something economically useful. As far as we know Optimus isn't there yet. But as soon as it happens, mass production won't be far behind.
IMHO it's strict human format limits Optimus' utility from what the addition of a few quick-tach ports for extra tools or tool-arms and steadying appendages might otherwise add in utility.

I bet we'll very soon see many non-human mods to what Optimus, with micro-camera drones occasionally buzzing about so Optimus can see other perspectives.

Most of what humans are evolved to serve very non-industrial functions useless for manufacturing.
 
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