Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

And I suspect the Roadster prototype doublestack pack was needed because cell technology had not yet advanced enough to allow for a single stack. They probably had a roadmap even back then that they knew would allow for a single-stack by the time mass production arrived...

I don't see any evidence of the doubling of energy density needed to go from double to single layer.

 

[Xepa777]

Tesla getting >100% Margin on batteries is on the horizon thanks to the IRA subsidies. Connecting the Dots provides the details.

We need to keep a running track of the sensationalist hype BS this man has said over the years.

Just from what I have saved, this is the same dude who once predicted 540k+ deliveries in 4Q21 alone w/ASP @ $108k+. Also predicted $16.6bn GAAP Earnings for FY21. You have 0 credibility. Denied China demand weakness last year. overshot both on deliveries and eps this past quarter.

Sure he spits out a lot of pretty charts, but his forecasting is borderline embarrassing that makes TSLAQ folks look right on things. But because he’s a bull people so easily gloss over his irresponsible overshooting all the time.

Tesla, great company. Too bad so many weirdos piggyback on it for their own personal clout from Warren to Prophet Sarajh to Stephenson and SMR.

 

[Sunlight]

Can/would/will Tesla shrink the Cybertruck by 10% all round for the rest of the world?!
Can't see why it wouldn't work and it would be easier than tackling another design and indistinguishable from afar.
Interior head height may be the only compromise but I'm sure they could work around that (and the rest of the world are usually smaller than Americans?)
Now I'd want one of those in a flash....

 

[scaesare]

I don't see any evidence of the doubling of energy density needed to go from double to single layer.

But IIRC, that "double height" sections weren't the entire footprint of the pack, right? i thought there were "humps" under the seats (effectively eliminating the seat brackets in those locations), and single height in the footwell areas.

So not 2X the number of cells, but maybe more like 1.5X?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Please explain this.

When Munro ventures into market analysis (not their speciality), they tend to ignore the rest of the world, focussing only on the US. Which is why they recently advocated for a full sized SUV and downplayed the desirability of a car smaller than the Model 3 [edit] as the next car to produce.

 

[2daMoon]

We need to keep a running track of the sensationalist hype BS this man has said over the years.

Just from what I have saved, this is the same dude who once predicted 540k+ deliveries in 4Q21 alone w/ASP @ $108k+. Also predicted $16.6bn GAAP Earnings for FY21. You have 0 credibility. Denied China demand weakness last year. overshot both on deliveries and eps this past quarter.

Sure he spits out a lot of pretty charts, but his forecasting is borderline embarrassing that makes TSLAQ folks look right on things. But because he’s a bull people so easily gloss over his irresponsible overshooting all the time.

Wright's Law seems to be charting accurately so far. Do you think that the trend will change and that costs will not continue to drop at this rate as production increases?

Perhaps you feel the doubling of production will not maintain this rate of growth over each two-year span for the next several years?

What, specifically, is it that you found in the presentation to be problematic?

As for the charts, I don't believe they were his.

Granted, the congress-critters could gut the IRA before Wright's Law sees the prices drop to a level that would support the thesis.

 

[GOVA]

All true, but why is noone talking about the windshieldwiper - the hole appeal to me dies with this thing on. Without it the lines are slick and all, but with any iteration I saw so far it was just bad - less bad now with the narrow one than the enormous one from the beginning but still just bad.

Am I alone with this view?

I'd let this one slide because we have no choice. You do need a wiper. My biggest beef with CT is that its dimensions have changed which caused a change of its triangular proportions from a beast to meh.
Weird enough, Elon himself has said numerous times that how much he hates concept car presentations which eventually end up as regular cars that look different.

In terms of looks alone, the original concept was a perfection. The current betas look not that impressive due to proportions changes.

 

[AndrewZ]

"You don't have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years," Yellen told ABC's Good Morning America program.

"What I see is a path in which inflation is declining significantly and the economy is remaining strong."

Yellen: 'You don't have a recession' when U.S. unemployment at 53-year low

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said she saw a path for avoiding a U.S. recession, with inflation coming down significantly and the economy remaining strong, given the strength of the U.S. labor market. "You don't have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs...

finance.yahoo.com

“Janet Yellen on why rates will remain higher for longer”

To me, betting that rates will come down this year is betting the economy will be hit hard.

 

[jeewee3000]

Tesla, great company. Too bad so many weirdos piggyback on it for their own personal clout from Warren to Prophet Sarajh to Stephenson and SMR.

That's the fault of the fanbois giving these people credibility by sponsoring them on patreon and giving them views/likes/clicks. We vote with our time/wallets.

The only two I still follow are Tesla Daily and The Limiting Factor.

 

[lafrisbee]

It will be awesome if the CT has waviness. Waviness will make each Cybertruck completely unique.

Just like Ruffles?

 

[scaesare]

But IIRC, that "double height" sections weren't the entire footprint of the pack, right? i thought there were "humps" under the seats (effectively eliminating the seat brackets in those locations), and single height in the footwell areas.

So not 2X the number of cells, but maybe more like 1.5X?

(replying to myself)

This is the pic I was thinking of, from this thread a few years ago:

 

[MP3Mike]

When Munro ventures into market analysis (not their speciality), they tend to ignore the rest of the world, focussing only on the US. Which is why they recently advocated for a full sized SUV and downplayed the desirability of a car smaller than the Model 3.

I don't think he downplayed the desirability of a smaller car, he said that he didn't think Tesla should go after that market. (Just like a lot of us have said, Tesla should go with the larger higher profit vehicles first, and then if nobody has filled the need for the smaller vehicle come back and build smaller vehicles later.)

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Just like Ruffles?

Like Damascus Steel.

 

[betstarship]

"You don't have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years," Yellen told ABC's Good Morning America program.

"What I see is a path in which inflation is declining significantly and the economy is remaining strong."

Yellen: 'You don't have a recession' when U.S. unemployment at 53-year low

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said she saw a path for avoiding a U.S. recession, with inflation coming down significantly and the economy remaining strong, given the strength of the U.S. labor market. "You don't have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs...

finance.yahoo.com

Looks like tech companies are hiring more than they're firing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618615278992265217

 

[Artful Dodger]

This tweet was liked by Elon three days ago:

View attachment 903920

Excellent point, and "Project Highland" was listed specifically in a Tesla permit filing document:

Tesla begins preparing for a revamped Model 3 line at Fremont Factory | Teslarati.com (Dec 06, 2022)

"This morning, Tesla filed and signed an application to build temporary tents that will house Model 3 body fitting and light repair operations until May 1, 2023.​

Tesla begins preparing for a revamped Model 3 line at Fremont Factory

Tesla is already preparing for revamped Model 3 lines at Fremont in preparation for "Project Highland."

www.teslarati.com

To me, sounds like the plant is to continue Model 3 production in temporary Sprung structures while the main factory line is being upgrade, doubtlessly to include at least rear megacastings for Model 3, possibly front too.

Cheers!

 

[thx1139]

Looks like tech companies are hiring more than they're firing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618615278992265217

I cant remember over the last 30 years any of these high tech companies not having higher headcounts a year after they announce layoffs. Have known lots of people at Microsoft for instance who were ready to move on and retire or start own business that simply waited until layoffs were announced and then jumped to accept the voluntary layoffs that ultimately come first to have that severance package on the way out.

 

[lafrisbee]

It is fine with me, as long as it is hidden behind the A-pillar to avoid blocking driver's view. The vertical orientation reduces drag when stowed. This design makes good sense. Any other method would have a greater impact on the coefficient of drag.

But, I'm a function over form person. Perhaps you are not. To me, everything about the CT is function taking precedence over form and this little bit is a nothing burger when comparing CT to every other pickup in production.

Not "everything." The whining by the Yuppies wanting the Tailgate brake light bar is not "First Principles. I have no clue why Elon didn't recognise it except he has probably been in a cyber(nota)truck more than a regular man's work truck. Having that light across the back because it looks cool is not cool. Normal people often hang stuff over the tailgate that don't fit in the bed, like kayaks. And that bar is going to be a liability.
EDIT: If not a liability a limitation.

 

[kbM3]

Cathie Wood recently said ARK expects an SP of $1500 in five years. So, maybe you aren't dreamin' big enough!

Elon stated bigger than Saudi Aramco + Apple in 5 years, so he’s not far behind her.

 

[kbM3]

I like the way she trades, because she trends to buy low and sell high.

Her stock picks are intended to be disruptive companies, backed by quality research, and I think they expect some losers.

My question is the quality of the research done by her team, it often seems a little too optimistic.

Still even if they are right for the wrong reasons, 2-3 disruptive companies out of 10 working out may be enough to make her model work.

Would her method work if all the other companies were trending to zero and she keeps selling the 2 to 3 disruptors to continually rebalance?

 

[insaneoctane]

Trying to understand the trading volume of late. Trading 200M shares on a given day has become fairly common of late. According to a source:

Tesla has a total of 3.01bn shares outstanding, according to data from Nasdaq. Who are the stakeholders of Tesla?

Institutional investors accounted for the largest block of shares at around 1.36 billion, or 43.01%, as of 5 December, according to WallStreetZen. Retail investors accounted for 41.9% of stock ownership, totalling 1.32bn shares, up from a 39.8% share earlier this year. Company executives held 15.09% of the stock, or 476.4 million shares

So, I don’t think those insider shares are contributing to the 200M volume. ALL retail investors amounts to 15% of the 200M. It also amounts to 15% of the 200M for ALL institutional investors. Any theories of how much of a 200M day is retail vs institutional? The 200M volume seems inexplicable to me.

edited for clarity.