I completely agree with this, especially the 20% or less conversion rate. I expect 100% of the single motor reservations to go unfilled. Probably 90% or more of the additional orders will go unfilled unless flipping them proves to be a profitable option.
I have two orders, a dual and a tri. I expect to have the option on the dual first due to battery constraints. I plan to try it out, see if the range is enough for my family, and see what kind of ride sharing business opportunities are available. When the tri becomes available I'll make my decision on getting it or not. I have no clue if I will just keep the dual as my driver, keep the dual for ride sharing, or sell the dual and just go with the tri. A Y with the trailer hitch might also be all I need.