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Market WON'T like a hawkish FED. And, Big Tech earnings -ve surprises can be a big -ve on all stocks.

Uses anything for his pump and dump, uses TSLA and Elon too. In 2021, while he was pumping, he dumped all his TSLA. It would have been decent, if he stopped pumping at least while he was selling. I don't even want to get into his SPACs pump and dump. Retails who invested in his SPACs were robbed...

(Different topic than my last one) I am looking for Tax professional (in US) who you found, or heard to be good with filing returns when many options (LEAPS) selling, buying, exercising is involved. It's turning out hard to find one who is comfortable with LEAPS, and large amount of options...

Larry Summers, Mohammed El Erian, Ray Dalio, @Wifeyalpha are some of the sources whose views led me into posting on TMC in March, April of 2022 about the huge downward risk to the market. I am in agreement with their reasoning even now, and that means FFR going to 5-6% and staying there for a...

(Cross-posting for making it easy for folks who don't spend as much time on main thread) Not trying to boast that some of these things turned out as I was afraid back then. But quoting these to give background for this post. I hope you all had minimal impact due to the SP action in the last...

Not trying to boast that some of these things turned out as I was afraid back then. But quoting these to give background for this post. I hope you all had minimal impact due to the SP action in the last one year. I am curious if some of you are interested in hedging against market capitulation...

Can you please share if you had any findings on this front? Brokerage I guess allows adjusting the slots for 3 days. Curious if you got any findings on changing the slots after the 3-day window. I read IRS allows filing a separate form in which you provide the slots to which particular sale can...

Margins to 12%-18%, and demand to 1.5x (of 2022)? I am trying to figure your estimate on earnings here.

Were you audited related to options, or know of any?

Common, everyone! Just reactions, no responses, none seen anything similar? I know almost everyone here is a deca-millionaire. But does everyone in your network (even second degree connection) have Teslas already, and none bought a car after the $7500 incentive? :p It can't be just me seeing...

What’s your math that says 400k is such a high bar? China is likely doing at least as many as Q3. That takes us to 343k. 400k from there is 57k. Do you think 57k is a lot even with all the incentives? Aren’t you seeing increased sales in your part of the world? Btw, don’t we have a reasonable...

(I haven't gone through a lot of posts on this thread since a while, so the topic might have been covered already) Are you seeing unusually very high number of M3, and MY purchases after the incentive, especially the latest ($7.5k) incentive? In SF BayArea, people I know of who never were...

I believe Tesla in earnings call said to the effect that they expect to well qualify.

Do you mind sharing some examples of what you see as capitulation, this cycle or in the past?

The Reuters article still says…”Analysts expect Tesla to deliver 442,452 vehicles in the fourth quarter, according to Refinitiv data”.

I am not a blind Elon worshipper, despite investing significantly (to my level) when not many of today's investors were with him (Tesla): There are things I am critical of Elon. I think he should not have pumped the stock in Q3 earnings call, saying BTFD, and then in Twitter spaces recently...

I thought as much. His latest sale I thought was to close the margin loan. Double checking here. Thanks.

Thoughts?

Does @Troy 428K deliveries estimate assume <29k deliveries in China in total for the last 3 weeks?

> If you want to be taken seriously here By that wording you are implying everyone is agreeing with your view. There are many who don't share your view here. The wording should be "If you want to be taken seriously many/some of us here"

I am sorry, “delivery of a CPO”, what is CPO?

> The end-of-quarter push for Q3 was more relaxed than usual. Looks like this quarter it’s back to usual, not anymore relaxed. Is that right?

Last couple of questions on this I guess, are they planning to order one and take next year? Are they in income bracket below 300k+?

Are you saying Elon sold all shares in his possession, in other words, no sales until next tranche from 2018 CEO compensation plan? Mind reminding if some will vest end of this quarter? This likely was discussed here before, Elon transferred 5B+ worth of shares to his foundation. If those were...

Did they finally take it, or got cancelled?

Mind sharing when the first deferment was?the location?

Ee (Apologies, if this was discussed at length earlier, haven’t been following the thread much lately) Is this true? What are the import tariffs from China to Canada?

Do you trade on VIX? If yes, what ticker? 1x?

Do you guys suspect Elon is selling today? ~15m Volume within 90mins of market open. [EDIT: For securing Twitter purchase, cutting down margin need, and also need to depend on other investors? I suspect Elon is strongly leaning to buy Twitter, although it might seem to many that he is trying to...

20k+/week using how much capital/margin? In other words, what is the weekly % gain you are trying to get to, % of the capital/margin you are putting at risk?

I am very sorry to hear this. I would say, there's a strong chance this experience by itself will put you on the path to recovery, money and mental strength wise. I (and am sure many others here) would be happy to help with any information that can be helpful.

Good point, I didn't notice that the data was from Aug-2021, prior to Elon's sale last Q4. Thanks!

Do you mind sharing the thought process, knowledge behind arriving at these points/views? Would appreciate pointers to the learning resources to gain the knowledge.

Apparently, there's only ~84M shares he has un-pledged at this time. That would be the max he can pledge.

I Pezpunk, StealthP3D and TheTalkingMule I was wondering what you thoughts were, what you were conveying by 👎to my post. Mind elaborating a bit? Thanks for the feedback.

OT (Not sure if Macro related discussion would be allowed here by Mods) Thought it's good to listen to the point of view of the folks on other side of the macro. Sharing this here to learn from you all, what your view on these points is. I understand markets are forward looking. Do you think...

Thanks for your replies. I am more interested in the cash levels during dot-com bubble. The kind of money that was pumped into the system the last two years, in fact even prior to that (QE post GFC), both Monetary, and Fiscal, seems unprecedented. Was there even nearly as much cash injection...

Would love your thoughts, especially those who were experienced dot-com period in stocks I am trying to understand current situation, and here's what I see: A lot of money was pumped into the system post covid breakout (in fact even before covid, at least since QE-1), both Monetary policy...

Isn't that a while away? At the least not until Q1 results? The current macro with a hot CPI incoming before then makes it risky to accumulate this early?

Isn’t over stimulation, too much money in the hands of people, inflated assets, wealth effect, likely key reason for substantially over-normal demand, especially a time less was being produced, leading to this inflation? Looks like significant part of people feel wealthy now, and spending more...

I would advise keeping in mind that Fed has a very serious problem, run away inflation. Big run up in equity, and/or housing markets I would think will be very detrimental to their efforts to contain the run away inflation. JPowell was praising Volcker recently on how Volcker handled the run...

Yes, he is. I thought he held a tiny stake at least until recently??

Thanks for the reply. Do you think these calls are delta hedged with enough shares, enough to be delivered to those that would like assignment? I guess, at least the macros will influence more people towards taking profits on these options, rather than influencing more into taking assignment...

Thoughts on Jan-21-2022 DITM calls? Haven't managed to catch up on all the wonderful posts on this thread lately. Someone might've posted on this already, but couldn't find anything at least by searching for "spotgamma". The subject likely was discussed, even if not in the context of spotgamma...

I would say, there's a key differentiator between early-2021, and now. We have not one but several catalysts ahead. In early-2021 we barely had any near-term catalysts. Of course, Q4 2020 earnings could've been great, S/X Refresh models would've been out soonish. But they don't compare to the...

Good to see the message, was looking for someone with experience with penalty. Did you deal with the penalty? Is it 2% on the taxes owed? Did IRS make any fuss over it, like asking for full review or something like that?

For the Dec-31 sale, I am afraid you are required to pay advanced tax by April-2022. Advanced tax payments must be made quarterly for income that doesn’t have tax deductions like salary. Hearty congratulations on your success with TSLA options!

Stock price and new Tesla workforce, in Austin and Berlin I was wondering if there's a case for TSLA to be kept more affordable till the time the new workforce comes onboard? Could it be that Elon has that (also) in his mind, and not letting the stock rise too much before that workforce comes...

One metric one can go with, for the ranking, is the amount of money one could've made through your blog posts on Tesla. Compared to what one would've made through knowledge from other TSLA sources, I think you are the best :cool: Yes, it's that hardcore, high quality research. That's what is...