Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[FluxCap]

NASDAQ being dragged down by biotechs (deservedly, I think) and we are slouching with lunchtime volume drop. We will see if second half of trading day resumes this epic squeeze, or if shorts feel like doubling down to lose more money next week.

AAPL reports after the bell and that will definitely impact the NASDAQ tomorrow, as will Fed meeting Wednesday.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Woohoo, finally in the black.........bought first shares in 2014, how's that for being late to the party? :scared:

 

[Johan]

Woohoo, finally in the black.........bought first shares in 2014, how's that for being late to the party? :scared:

Never too late to come to the party that is TSLA.

* As long as you go long

 

[Bobbyducati]

thoughts?

http://electrek.co/2015/04/27/tesla...pany-ahead-of-their-big-battery-announcement/

13 month high on shorts leading to the announcement

 

[Gtoffo]

thoughts?

http://electrek.co/2015/04/27/tesla...pany-ahead-of-their-big-battery-announcement/

13 month high on shorts leading to the announcement

5.537884 days to cover....not bad but not a high for Tesla. I think what we are seeing today is already a small squeeze. But do not expect the shorts to diminish. New shorts will surely replace the old ones after the rally of the last few weeks.

 

[Papafox]

The rise in share prices today will give bullish analysts more courage to raise their price targets should the April 30 announcement warrant such adjustments (which I think it will).

 

[Grendal]

5.537884 days to cover....not bad but not a high for Tesla. I think what we are seeing today is already a small squeeze. But do not expect the shorts to diminish. New shorts will surely replace the old ones after the rally of the last few weeks.

Forrest Gump stupid is - YouTube

 

[InTheShadows]

There are a lot of articles coming out now trying to downplay the importance/impact of the storage announcement.

Today's close should be interesting a lot of buying created a nice support at 232.30ish this afternoon.

 

[chickensevil]

I should clarify. If i had weeklies I'd roll them out now. Impossible to know what will happen on that time scale. But if you have a few months, I'd hold.

What you stated was logical and pretty much what I was thinking, about this being news for investors (and not customers) which should translate into price movement easier. I guess I am just worried about it ending up like the last few runs with a giant sell on the news tsunami. Hearing you be on the side of hold through the event makes me feel a bit better that this isn't such a bad idea this time around. I will think on this over the next couple days and might just hold through depending on where we sit come Thursday.

 

[FluxCap]

There are a lot of articles coming out now trying to downplay the importance/impact of the storage announcement.

Today's close should be interesting a lot of buying created a nice support at 232.30ish this afternoon.

Indeed, some funds accumulating shares to capture further near-term gains is a plausible theory. This run ain't over yet.

 

[NJ Plugin]

Woohoo, finally in the black.........bought first shares in 2014, how's that for being late to the party? :scared:

I know that feeling Jim. I first bought at almost the high last year, at $285. I did buy twice again with my average share cost $237.44, so I am almost in the black. :biggrin:

 

[CHGolferJim]

I know that feeling Jim. I first bought at almost the high last year, at $285. I did buy twice again with my average share cost $237.44, so I am almost in the black. :biggrin:

Soon, my man!

 

[3mp_kwh]

Now, the April 30 announcement is not for customers. This one is for investors. Tesla is going to announce that they are entering a whole new market and creating a whole new revenue stream. They may even be revealing projects that are well underway (i.e. Walmart) which could have an immediate effect on earnings. Real investors that haven't moved yet (because they don't buy on speculation) may very well step in and buy after seeing the official word from Tesla. This will overwhelm the hedge funds that typically knock the stock down after an announcement.

This is different. Ahead of this announcement you see analysts already tripping over one another to adjust revenue models. This will continue after the announcement when they have a more clear idea of what is going on.

I echo this, having generally been net long, light and heavy. I'm heavy. Tesla's coverage is car-coverage. Simply put, these guys are reluctant to model-in cash flows from the unfamiliar. There are a proverbial "ton" of intermittent resources coming online over the next decade. I think guys, like Adam Jonas, are out of their depths talking about Thursday. And it goes beyond home storage, or Walmart.

 

[FredTMC]

I echo this, having generally been net long, light and heavy. I'm heavy. Tesla's coverage is car-coverage. Simply put, these guys are reluctant to model-in cash flows from the unfamiliar. There are a proverbial "ton" of intermittent resources coming online over the next decade. I think guys, like Adam Jonas, are out of their depths talking about Thursday. And it goes beyond home storage, or Walmart.

Yeah, I hadn't thought about that. This IS beyond an auto analyst. Hmmm.

 

[FluxCap]

Yeah, I hadn't thought about that. This IS beyond an auto analyst. Hmmm.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Jonas wrote a 50-page monster analysis back in Feb. 2014 describing Tesla's future dominance of battery tech & energy storage that helped pushed us to $290/share. He then went nuts and tanked the stock later in the year with wierd statements, but either he or someone on his team definitely "gets it." Whether they publish it or not is another story.

 

[DrGuest]

Volume 11.66M today with an ave. vol. of 4.89M .

 

[Bgarret]

I echo this, having generally been net long, light and heavy. I'm heavy. Tesla's coverage is car-coverage. Simply put, these guys are reluctant to model-in cash flows from the unfamiliar. There are a proverbial "ton" of intermittent resources coming online over the next decade. I think guys, like Adam Jonas, are out of their depths talking about Thursday. And it goes beyond home storage, or Walmart.

It's not just Jonas, it's most renewable energy analysts. If you listen to the conference calls, many of them are new to the field and grasping at the technology and valuations. They're trying to measure exponential growth with a slide rule, use Discounted Cash Flow Models for a disruptive technology(ies). Curt has said it many times regarding financial reporting and TA...tough to do with a disruptive, momentum stock in a technology field. Now ask these analysts that were stretching to understand BEVs and ask them to get smart on renewable energy, peak power, smart grids, micro grids, FIT regimes and $/kWh globally...oh, and keep an eye on the other 50 stocks you are tracking. I like Phil Labeau (one of the few on CNBC) but do you think he has the best insight into the technology and revenue potential of stationary storage?

I think analysts and pundits will inherently low ball their estimates, and even low balling, you are hearing $70-100/share bandied about. Buckle up everyone, situation normal, Mucho volatility ahead. I have no idea where this goes after the 30th and the 6th...but it certainly feels much better than counting deliveries in Finland and bumping along at $180.

 

[Cattledog]

...but it certainly feels much better than counting deliveries in Finland and bumping along at $180.

Ha! Got a laugh out of me. Easy to laugh on a day like today and hopefully a week like this week.

 

[Bgarret]

Ha! Got a laugh out of me. Easy to laugh on a day like today and hopefully a week like this week.

Nothing against Finland, of course....love to get there so I can count Teslas firsthand....just rather not count on them to blow out earnings.

 

[Papafox]

This evening's SpaceX launch was successful, as usual. Trying to determine if they'll attempt a first stage landing tonight.
Edit: Other members confirm no landing attempt due to need for more performance