Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[chickensevil]

Is this surge strictly from that one analyst report? Because pre-market was totally quiet until minutes before opening.

 

[mmccord]

Is this surge strictly from that one analyst report? Because pre-market was totally quiet until minutes before opening.

I saw an article on one of the market sites about a taxi firm in china ordering 100 Model S, so maybe improved sentiment about the China market also. Can't imagine that would move the SP as much as the analyst report though. I think the market is just slowly waking up to the enormous impact stationary storage will have on the company's value.

 

[Larken]

And if we can close above 226.80 it means we've regained the 200 dma, which in turn is a bullish signal that might get more shorts to cover, which in turn, you get the point :wink:

 

[chickensevil]

I saw an article on one of the market sites about a taxi firm in china ordering 100 Model S, so maybe improved sentiment about the China market also. Can't imagine that would move the SP as much as the analyst report though. I think the market is just slowly waking up to the enormous impact stationary storage will have on the company's value.

That was reported previously. So I wouldn't think the taxi thing is related to today's movements. Just the standard click-bait regurgitation of old information, sadly. (although at least in this case it is a repeat of positive news!)

 

[Raffy.Roma]

And if we can close above 226.80 it means we've regained the 200 dma, which in turn is a bullish signal that might get more shorts to cover, which in turn, you get the point :wink:

This ^_*

Never again under the 200 dma.

 

[FredTMC]

Great day to be a long term Tesla investor. Congrats all. Welcome back 200 day MA

If you're Short, well then welcome to Tsunami v2.0

 

[Larken]

Is this surge strictly from that one analyst report? Because pre-market was totally quiet until minutes before opening.

From DB report:

"The bull case would be that this business could potentially add $5 to our 2020 EPS estimate of $20. At a 20x P/E, this would equate to $100 per share."

I guess that is what is moving the share price violently, besides shorts covering and the upcoming announcement.

 

[FluxCap]

Wow - I am pleased that my trade thesis was correct this time -- that given momo risk-on environment, once more analyst reports started putting dollar figures on revenue gains, we would see a massive thrust upwards. Hope some of you have done as well as I have this morning.

I was going to load up on post-ER 250's Friday and did not, but at least my 225 prediction came and went with gusto.

Super low volume right now, lunchtime flatline. I think fireworks in store for last hour or two of trading session. Not sure where we are headed but if we don't crack 225 today I think we will soon.

Onward and upward!

 

[InTheShadows]

Teslinaires will be made today. Congrats all longs.

 

[chickensevil]

Wow - I am pleased that my trade thesis was correct this time -- that given momo risk-on environment, once more analyst reports started putting dollar figures on revenue gains, we would see a massive thrust upwards. Hope some of you have done as well as I have this morning.

I was going to load up on post-ER 250's Friday and did not, but at least my 225 prediction came and went with gusto.

Onward and upward!

Well, I for one, will not be holding options through the Announcement. Been burned too many times by hype that fizzles. I will happily take any pre-announcement gains and wait and see what happens. Although, this one actually has the potential to become something serious since it is a whole new revenue stream for the company, which should translate into real company value.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Thanks for keeping this average guy interested in this stock. I want the American Dream.

 

[chickensevil]

Well, I for one, will not be holding options through the Announcement. Been burned too many times by hype that fizzles. I will happily take any pre-announcement gains and wait and see what happens. Although, this one actually has the potential to become something serious since it is a whole new revenue stream for the company, which should translate into real company value.

In fairness, my targets of 230+ by May have been hit a little early anyway, so it isn't like it is a bad thing to dump out before thursday and reassess. been a good last week and this week

 

[Bgarret]

From DB report:

"The bull case would be that this business could potentially add $5 to our 2020 EPS estimate of $20. At a 20x P/E, this would equate to $100 per share."

I guess that is what is moving the share price violently, besides shorts covering and the upcoming announcement.

if they are earning $20/share by 2020, they will likely pull a much higher P/E growing that fast. I still think the market, while getting a hint at this business, is underpricing it at $70-100/share. I don't think that takes into account international storage needs and micro grids.

Goldman analyst will be key to the stock zooming up from here. They are the big kids and more balanced in their analysis of Tesla. If they come out with an analysis closer to their Bull scenario, Johnny bar the door.

- - - Updated - - -

In fairness, my targets of 230+ by May have been hit a little early anyway, so it isn't like it is a bad thing to dump out before thursday and reassess. been a good last week and this week

The only changes I made were to move some May 1st 220s and 225s out to May 15 240s, in case more of the financial discussion of storage is post-earnings. Keeping May 1, June 19, Sep 18 and Jan 2016 calls in place through both April 30 and likely May 6th. Hoping to convert some of the May 1 options to shares.

 

[Larken]

Sorry to write so frequently as I know some people don't like minute to minute updates on share price but I guess this is the moment most of us have been waiting for a very long time. I was just looking at volume and it stands at 4 million right now. We've got roughly 27 million shorts as of middle of April. If this is the beginning of a squeeze then we haven't seen the beginning of short scrambling for cover.

Edit:

if they are earning $20/share by 2020, they will likely pull a much higher P/E growing that fast. I still think the market, while getting a hint at this business, is underpricing it at $70-100/share. I don't think that takes into account international storage needs and micro grids.

Goldman analyst will be key to the stock zooming up from here. They are the big kids and more balanced in their analysis of Tesla. If they come out with an analysis closer to their Bull scenario, Johnny bar the door.

I agree. I'm heading to the hardware store tomorrow to buy wooden planks and nails to give to Johnny.:biggrin:

 

[FluxCap]

Here we go up again -- sharp candle upwards in last minute. I smell panicking shorts covering hard against post-April 30th and post-May 6th puts. I would be terrified to be holding those right now with more analyst reports surely coming, a flat macro environment, and a definite risk-on appetite for big-name NASDAQ momo stocks.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Sorry to write so frequently as I know some people don't like minute to minute updates on share price but I guess this is the moment most of us have been waiting for a very long time. I was just looking at volume and it stands at 4 million right now. We've got roughly 27 million shorts as of middle of April. If this is the beginning of a squeeze then we haven't seen the beginning of short scrambling for cover.

I'm pretty sure we're all ok with it. Today is a fantastic day.

 

[Citizen-T]

I love this stock. It's just too easy.

 

[AlMc]

In fairness, my targets of 230+ by May have been hit a little early anyway, so it isn't like it is a bad thing to dump out before thursday and reassess. been a good last week and this week

My strategy is to sell enough of my May 15 200/240 spread to be playing with house money (plus 10% profit). This gives me a positive trade no matter what happens with april 30th or ER/CC on May 6th.

This does have the feeling of a short squeeze/tsunami. IMO, this happens over the next 10 days IF the ER/CC is accepted by the market as positive (when was the last time we had a good ER?......seems like a long time ago....):wink:

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I love this stock. It's just too easy.

I know, right? Feels like 2013 again. I'm glad i pulled the trigger on June calls last Friday (now up 84% since then). Thanks to those like Flux who have been sharing their bullishness! I feel the same way but I lost a lot of my risk taking ability after GTAT and need a little help pulling the trigger here and there...

 

[vgrinshpun]

I know, right? Feels like 2013 again. I'm glad i pulled the trigger on June calls last Friday (now up 84% since then). Thanks to those like Flux who have been sharing their bullishness! I feel the same way but I lost a lot of my risk taking ability after GTAT and need a little help pulling the trigger here and there...

Second that, Flux helped me to overcome my hesitation last week. The May 1 $220 calls are up 4x +!